Key Technology Trajectories Roberto Saracco Prague, October 22 nd, 2004

Key Technology Trajectories Roberto Saracco  Approach  Trajectories  Disruptions

The Web Site The FOUR LAYERS

Looking into Technologies  How would a Tech. evolve?  How is it related to the whole?

Looking into Technologies #c #n #c #n Year 20043,0902,8990,1640,051 Year 20103,0002,7740,2660,055 Year 20202,7812,6890,2700,058

Looking into Technologies #c #n #c #n Year 20043,0909,8380,1640,439 Year 20103,0009,0350,2660,494 Year 20202,7818,6460,2700,504

Looking into Technologies  How would a Tech. evolve?  How is it related to the whole?  What are the crucial impacts? (passive/active)

Technology Trajectories  3D Imaging  Artificial Life  Broadband  Communications  Content Creation  Data Capture  Encryption  Gaming Platforms  Gaming Storage  Human Interfacing  Image Recognition  Information Coding  Information Displaying  Information Retrieval  Interactivity  Language Understanding  Embedded System  Multimode  Person Identification  Pin Pointing  Printing Atoms  Processing  Profiling  Seamless Ubiquitous Access  Security  Sensing  Shadowing  Storage  Virtual Presence  Terminals/Wearable

Technology Trajectories Full discussion for Telecom Related Trajectories in HEIDELBERG, Germany – November 9 th, 2004 You are invited to join!

Technologies Trajectories Artificial Life  Robotics  Virtual Reality  Self creation: assembling / replicating  Self adaptation: reconfiguration/healing

Artificial Life - Robotics Trajectories  Production oriented Towards increased flexibility Support variety of application fields Today: Europe, USA, Japan Tomorrow: Varies depending on appl.field

Artificial Life - Robotics Trajectories  Production oriented  Autonomous Towards real independence Support remote exploration, AmI Today: Japan, USA, Europe Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?

Artificial Life - Robotics Trajectories  Production oriented  Autonomous  Symbiotic Towards closer, spontaneous interactions, seamless integration, smarter robots Support augmented life, healthcare, prosthetics Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, ?

Artificial Life - Robotics Trajectories  Production oriented  Autonomous  Symbiotic  Social Towards seamless interaction Entertainment, Education,… Today: USA Tomorrow: USA, Japan

Artificial Life - Robotics Trajectories  Production oriented  Autonomous  Symbiotic  Social  MicroRobots Towards better movement capabilities nanoRobots for health care Support ambient exploration, sensing Today: USA (nanoRobots), Europe Tomorrow: ?

Artificial Life - Robotics Trajectories  Production oriented  Autonomous  Symbiotic  Social  MicroRobots  Swarm (Physical, Sw) Towards collective autonomous intelligence Support ambient sensing, Meta-Info harvest Today: USA Tomorrow: USA

Disruptions: Looking for “x” Disruption Time

Looking for “x” in processing ? Time Mainframes Mini PC PDA Tablet PC Smart Obj. GRID

Looking for “x” in health care ? Time Understanding Symptoms Understanding Causes Understanding Specificity

Looking for “x” in health care Disruptions, signpost Time Understanding Specificity Human Genoma Drug syntheses Fast Mapping Symbioses Monitoring Bio-Substitution

Looking for “x” in health care Disruptions, signpost Time Human Genoma Drug syntheses Fast Mapping Symbioses Monitoring Bio-Substitution Wet Ware Bio Printing Sensors – U.Acc. Hi.Sp. Processing Molecular comp.

Disruptions  Transformation of Products into Services  The Disappearance of the Computer  Ubiquitous seamless connectivity  Changing Traffic Patterns  Infinite Bandwidth  Disposable Products  Autonomous Systems  From Content to Packaging  The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures

From Products to Services

 Technological Enabling Factors  Embedding of communications capabilities  Rising of profiling  Cheaper production processes  Embedded Systems  Seamless Ubiquitotus Access  Communications

From Products to Services  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Products becoming commodities  Loss of differentiation capabilities  Increased copycat possibilities

From Products to Services  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Transformation into service companies  Shortening of products’ life cycle  Strong increase in call centers  Automated customised assistance  Increased globalisation of the market  Restructuring of the value chain

From Products to Services  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Health care  Entertainment  Transportation  Consumer appliances  Education  …

From Products to Services  Technological Enabling Factors  Market Driven Factors  Industry Impact  Market Sectors Affected  Likeliness to happen  Disruption is already occurring  Connectivity bundled as a service feature  Appliance bundled in connectivity

Key Technology Trajectories Roberto Saracco Prague, October 22 nd, 2004