How does it all work? Synthesis of Arctic System Science Discover, clarify, and improve our understanding of linkages, interactions, and feedbacks among two or more components of the arctic system.

SASS - Synthesis of Arctic System Science 1. Incorporate elements from the existing arctic data, information, and models build on past research integrate existing information. 2. Focus on interdisciplinary, cross-cutting questions improve understanding of how the system components function and interact. explore linkages between Arctic and global system. 3. Demonstrate clear relevance to the entire arctic system. address a range of space and time scales focus on system at a pan-Arctic scale 4. Archive data and products into the ARCSS data system identify repository include data and metadata 5. Coordinate Synthesis Efforts within a project between projects across ARCSS activities SASS 1: 9 projects started 2005 SASS 2: 8 projects started 2006

ARCSS – synthesis workshops Two weeklong interdisciplinary synthesis workshops. in summer of 2003 and 2004 focused on the changing Arctic system Conclusions The Arctic system is moving toward a new state. A state with dramatically less permanent ice. Few negative feedbacks between components.

Synthesis A Synthesis of the Last 2000 Years of Climatic Variability from Arctic Lakes: ARCSS "2 kyr" Project Freshwater Integration (FWI) Synthesis Study of the Northern Alaska Coastal System ( SNACS ) Human Dimensions in ARCSS Synthesis Shelf-Basin Interactions ( SBI ) Synthesis Look for connections

Synthesis A Synthesis of the Last 2000 Years of Climatic Variability from Arctic Lakes: ARCSS "2 kyr" Project Freshwater Integration (FWI) Synthesis Study of the Northern Alaska Coastal System ( SNACS ) Human Dimensions in ARCSS Synthesis Shelf-Basin Interactions ( SBI ) Synthesis Greening of the Arctic - Synthesis and Models to Examine Circumpolar Vegetation Change A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research Through Model-Data Fusion Studies Humans and Hydrology at High Latitudes Synthesis of Rapid Meltwater and Ice Discharge Changes: Large Forcings from Ice with Global Impacts Sunlight and the Arctic Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean System Heterogeneity and Resilience of Human-Rangifer Systems : A Circumpolar Social-Ecological Synthesis Arctic Surface Air Temperatures for Past 100 Years:Analysis and Reconstruction of Integrated Data Set Synthesis Modes of covariability Ocean-Ice-Atmos. in Arctic System from Multivariate Century-Scale obs. Look for connections

Synthesis A Synthesis of the Last 2000 Years of Climatic Variability from Arctic Lakes: ARCSS "2 kyr" Project Freshwater Integration (FWI) Synthesis Study of the Northern Alaska Coastal System ( SNACS ) Human Dimensions in ARCSS Synthesis Shelf-Basin Interactions ( SBI ) Synthesis Greening of the Arctic - Synthesis and Models to Examine Circumpolar Vegetation Change A Heat Budget Analysis of the Arctic Climate System Synthesis of Arctic System Carbon Cycle Research Through Model-Data Fusion Studies Humans and Hydrology at High Latitudes Synthesis of Rapid Meltwater and Ice Discharge Changes: Large Forcings from Ice with Global Impacts Sunlight and the Arctic Atmosphere-Ice-Ocean System Heterogeneity and Resilience of Human-Rangifer Systems : A Circumpolar Social-Ecological Synthesis Arctic Surface Air Temperatures for Past 100 Years:Analysis and Reconstruction of Integrated Data Set Synthesis Modes of covariability Ocean-Ice-Atmos. in Arctic System from Multivariate Century-Scale obs. The Roles of Clouds and their Accomplices in Modulating the Trajectory of the Arctic System Toward Reanalysis of the Arctic Climate System - Sea Ice and Ocean Reconstruction with Data Assimilation Producing an Updated Synthesis of the Arctic's Marine Primary Production Regime and Its Controls The Impact of Changes in Arctic Sea Ice on the Marine Planktonic Ecosystem - Retrospective and Future Climate Response to Future Changes in Arctic Snow Cover and Sea Ice: from the High-Res. NCAR CCSM3 The White Arctic: A Snow-Impacts Synthesis for the Terrestrial Arctic Understanding Change in the Climate and Hydrology of Arctic Land Region: Synthesizing the FWI Results Synthesis of Sea Ice, Climate, and Human Systems in the Arctic and Subarctic (SYNICE) Look for connections

Carbon cycle Sunlight Humans and hydrology Modes of OAI covariability Rapid ice and meltwater discharge Human-rangifer systems Surface air temperature Heat budget Of the Arctic What are the linkages? Greening of the Arctic SASS 1 Review

Potential linkages of SASS projects Atmosphere Cryosphere Ocean Land Humans

Potential linkages of SASS projects Heat Budget Arctic Air Temperatures Ocean-Ice-Atmos Covariability Human-Rangifer System Glacier MeltHydrology and Humans Carbon Cycle Greening of the Arctic Atmosphere Cryosphere Ocean Land Humans Sunlilght/Sea-ice

Potential linkages of SASS projects Heat Budget (Serreze et al.) Arctic Air Temperatures (Rigor et al.) Ocean-Ice-Atmos Covariability (Miles et al.) Human-Rangifer System (Kofinas et al.) Glacier Melt (Fahnstock et al.) Hydrology and Humans (Lammers et al.) Carbon Cycle (McGuire et al.) Greening of the Arctic (Walker et al.) NDVI phenology LSTs; snow melt Perennial Sea Ice Distribution; Incident PAR; net solar input Biomass; LAI; Land cover Biomass/Land cover; ET Atmosphere Cryosphere Ocean Land Humans Snow distribution Sunlilght/Sea-ice (Perovich et al.) Covar. NDVI; Sea ice; LST;OIA covar. sea ice, SAT; OIA covar. sea ice; SST; OIA covar. OIA covar.; incident solar input to ocean Snow depth; Mag. & duration Air temperature Temperatures Global trends; regional patterns P-E; Runoff Water to support subsistence resource Snowmelt/ precipitation Access to resources Runoff Incident solar; solar input to ice & ocean Clouds; sea ice SAT Clouds; snow Freshwater release

The “Molecule” E H WC The highest conceptual level Time

Synthesize and collaborate How does the system work? What datasets will be built? What are the variables, spatial and temporal coverage? Are there common formats? Shared access and links What models will be used? What system components will be studied? What are the linkages? What key questions can we answer?

Relax Don’t worry about structure Explore beyond your expertise Have fun! Synthesis of Arctic System Science