Last Ice Area Project WWF Bruno Tremblay – David Huard David Huard Solution McGill University.

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Presentation transcript:

Last Ice Area Project WWF Bruno Tremblay – David Huard David Huard Solution McGill University

Minimum Sea Ice Extent

Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent NSIDC, 2012 Ice Extent (million km 2 ) Year

Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Extent NSIDC, 2012 Ice Extent (million km 2 ) Year

September Sea Ice Volume

Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Volume PIOMAS Ice Volume (1000 km 3 ) Year

Minimum Arctic Sea Ice Volume PIOMAS Ice Volume (1000 km 3 ) Year

Minimum Sea Ice Extent Projections Most models project at least some September sea ice through the end of the century Based on Holland, Bitz, Tremblay, GRL 2006

Ice Albedo Feedback

Consensus on Likely Location of the Last Sea Ice Area Observations – Ice Age CCSM

Sea Ice Loss Pattern

THIN THICK

Minimum Ice Extent Animation Holland Bitz Tremblay, 2006

Part I Over 30 participating GCMs Over 30 participating GCMs Diagnostics: Diagnostics: Sea Ice Extent Sea Ice Extent Sea Ice Thickness Sea Ice Thickness Snow Depth Snow Depth Simulations Simulations Historical period: Historical period: st century climate: , ,…, st century climate: , ,…, Future Sea ice Condition from Low Resolution Climate Models

Part II MITgcm MITgcm Diagnostics: Diagnostics: Sea Ice Extent Sea Ice Extent Sea Ice Thickness Sea Ice Thickness Snow Depth Snow Depth Simulations Simulations 21 st century climate: , ,…, st century climate: , ,…, Future Sea ice Condition from High Resolution Regional Models

Sea Ice Minimum MITgcm – Pan-Arctic Paste Animations Here

Sea Ice Maximum MITgcm – PanArctic Paste Animations Here

Projected May Sea Ice Concentration 18 Status Review of the Ringed Seal (Phoca hispida) B. P. Kelly, J. L. Bengtson, P. L. Boveng, M. F. Cameron, S. P. Dahle, J. K. Jansen, E. A. Logerwell, J. E. Overland, C. L. Sabine, G. T. Waring, and J. M. Wilder December 2010 Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum

Projected July Sea Ice Concentration 19 Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum Kelly et al., 2010

Projected November Sea Ice Concentration 20 Decade 2090 Maximum Mean Minimum Decade 2050 Maximum Mean Minimum Kelly et al., 2010

STOP HERE

Ice Origin

Sea Ice Concentrations GFDL

Sea Ice Thickness GFDL

Snow Depth GFDL

Ice free days IPSL-CM5A

Goal Investigate the geographical pattern of the sea ice decline in the Arctic and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Investigate the geographical pattern of the sea ice decline in the Arctic and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago Impact on ice dependent species Impact on ice dependent species

Sea Ice Minimum MITgcm – Zoom on CAA Paste Animations Here