Mark C. Serreze Julienne Stroeve, Walt Meier, Ted Scambos, Marika Holland, Stephanie Renfrow, Matt Savoie Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental.

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Presentation transcript:

Mark C. Serreze Julienne Stroeve, Walt Meier, Ted Scambos, Marika Holland, Stephanie Renfrow, Matt Savoie Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences National Snow and Ice Data Center University of Colorado, Boulder CO Planet in Peril: Polar Ice Update

Courtesy NASA

Arapahoe Glacier, 1917 Arapahoe Glacier, 2004 Glaciers are retreating worldwide, including Colorado

The “greenhouse effect”

Fossil fuels Deforestation Fertilizers Rice Ruminants Landfills Fossil fuel the ‘Hockey Stick’ diagram

Overall radiative forcing: about 2 Watts/m 2 1 light per square meter around the entire planet 500 Trillion Christmas lights On 24 hours a day, 365 days a year 600 x global electrical consumption

The Arctic should be especially sensitive to greenhouse gas loading Why? Feedbacks!

Bellwether: Bellwether (1) - One that serves as a leader or as a leading indicator of future trends Bellwether (2) - Sheep that leads the herd often wearing a bell Inuksuk: A stone landmark used as a milestone or directional marker

The Arctic Sea Ice Cover Observations document rapid sea ice loss This loss is already having impacts on the Arctic Will eventually have impacts beyond the Arctic

Downward trends in all months

(courtesy of Harry Stern, U. Washington)

Loss of the summer ice cover 22 states – almost entire US east of the Mississippi (courtesy of Dr. Don Perovich, CRREL)

SEA ICE THICKNESS

Spatial and Temporal Variability in Ice Age “AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP)”-derived ice age – estimated using Langrangian tracking of ice drift estimated from APP ice motion fields (Fowler et al., 2003).

Shishmaref, AK  October 2002 storm  Photos taken ~2 hours apart  Credit: Tony Weyiouanna Sr.

The fabled Northwest Passage is open in late August 2007! Photo D. Kavanagh

Peering into the future…

Implications of this change in surface state Absorbed sunlight Lower albedo Melting + ++ An amplifier of climate change

Back in the 1970s ….

Not far from today…

Peering into the future… Amplified warming in the Arctic Impacts on middle-latitude climate? Colorado?

Recent Surface Temperature Changes Autumn/WinterAnnual Last Eight Years Compared to Autumn/Winter: Up to 5 degrees C (9 degrees F)

Observed Sea Ice Decline: Faster than Forecast Compiled by NSIDC

As the sea ice cover continues to retreat, the Arctic will become increasingly accessible, not just to commercial shipping, but to oil extraction. The irony is obvious

What can we do? Some further warming is already “in the pipeline” Key: keep things from getting out of hand Conservation, conservation, conservation!!! Vigorously promote cleaner technologies Solar, wind, carbon sequesteration Geo-engineering? Nuclear? Humankind will rise to the challenge We must adapt

Questions?