Impacts of Open Arctic to Specific Regions By: Jill F. Hasling, CCM Chief Consulting Meteorologist – MatthewsDaniel Weather September 2014.

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Presentation transcript:

Impacts of Open Arctic to Specific Regions By: Jill F. Hasling, CCM Chief Consulting Meteorologist – MatthewsDaniel Weather September 2014

OPEN ARCTIC RECORDS  Since 2007, Summer Open Arctic records are set at 3 year intervals.  Multi-year ice lasts through the summer.  Ice is concentrated on the Canadian side of the Arctic Ocean and has disappeared from the Eurasian Arctic waters and coasts.

COMPARISON OF MEDIAN ICE EXTENT

DIFFERENCE OF ICE CONCENTRATION IN MARCH 2012 AND AUGUST 2012

ARCTIC ICE GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2013

DRILLING  What does that mean for drilling in the Chukchi Sea and Kara Sea?

CHUKCHI SEA DATE WHEN CHUKCHI SEA BECOMES NON-ICE COVERED

Chukchi Sea July 16, 2013

Chukchi Sea August 7, 2012

Chukchi Sea July 8, 2011

Chukchi Sea July 19, 2010

Chukchi Sea July 13, 2009

Chukchi Sea August 31, 2008

Chukchi Sea July 18, 2007

CHUKCHI SEA DATE WHEN CHUKCHI SEA MARGINAL ICE ZONE RETURNS

Chukchi Sea November 6, 2013

Chukchi Sea November 3, 2012

Chukchi Sea November 14, 2011

Chukchi Sea October 28, 2010

Chukchi Sea November 5, 2009

Chukchi Sea November 10, 2008

Chukchi Sea October 28, 2007

KARA SEA DATE WHEN KARA SEA BECOMES NON- ICE COVERED

Kara Sea July 28, 2013

Kara Sea July 3, 2012

Kara Sea July 2, 2011

Kara Sea August 22, 2010

Kara Sea August 7, 2009

Kara Sea August 18, 2008

Kara Sea September 1, 2007

KARA SEA DATE WHEN KARA SEA MARGINAL ICE ZONE RETURNS

Kara Sea October 22, 2013

Kara Sea November 27, 2012

Kara Sea November 9, 2011

Kara Sea October 29, 2010

Kara Sea November 1, 2009

Kara Sea October 13, 2008

Kara Sea October 25, 2007

OPEN ARCTIC MEANS MORE STORMS ALONG THE ARCTIC CIRCLE

OPEN ARCTIC  From 2000 to 2010, about 1,900 cyclones churned across the top of the world each year, leaving warm water and air in their wakes—and melting sea ice in the Arctic Ocean.  When you narrow the search down to cyclones that occurred directly over the Arctic Ocean, you find more than 200 to 300 storms per year

Data from Arctic buoys reporting surface air temperatures and sea level pressure were used to create sparse storm tracks from 1950 to Buoys also captured the data used to create the more abundant storm tracks from 2000 to Credit: NASA Russia Canada Greenland Russia Canada Greenland

MORE STORMS MEAN…  More storms mean more snow. This means a colder atmosphere as sun’s radiation is reflected back into the space.

TRACKS OF POLAR LOWS IN THE SUMMER

OBSERVED WAVES  Reviewing the Observed Waves in the Chukchi Sea and the Kara Sea, you see that when the ice retreats the wind fetch increases. If you assume that the near zero wave heights indicate ice, you can see on the following charts that the drilling season could be longer depending on your drilling location.

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE CHUKCHI SEA (JULY - NOV.)

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE KARA SEA (JULY - NOV.)

YearDate of Ice Retreat Return of the Marginal Ice Zone Chukchi Sea 2013July 16,2013November 6, Aug 17, 2012Nov 3, July 9, 2011Nov 15, July October 28, July 13, 2009Nov 5, August 31, 2008Nov 10, July 18, 2007October 28,2007 CHUKCHI SEA

Dates of Ice Free/Freeze Up Kara Gate West Side of Novaya Zemlya Return of Marginal Ice Zone to Kara Gate Return of Marginal Ice Zone West Side of Novaya Zemlya 2013July 29 Nov 11Oct June 12July 4Nov 28Nov June 22July 2Nov 19Nov Aug 11Aug 23Nov 21Oct July 20Aug 7Nov 30Nov Aug 17Aug 20Nov 30Oct Sept 1Aug 18Nov 20Oct 25 KARA SEA

FORECAST FOR 2014 Chukchi SeaKara Sea Ice RetreatJuly 18, 2014July 25, 2014 Return of Marginal Ice Zone October 25, 2014

CHUKCHI SEA July 18, 2014July 25, 2014

KARA SEA July 25, 2014August 4, 2014

FORECAST FOR 2015 Chukchi SeaKara Sea Ice RetreatJuly 25, 2015August 4, 2015 Return of Marginal Ice Zone November 2, 2015October 30, 2015

Trusted. Globally.