A. M. Kaynia F. Nadim Earthquake-induced landslides Workshop UN-ISDR Pavia, 5-6 April 2011.

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Presentation transcript:

A. M. Kaynia F. Nadim Earthquake-induced landslides Workshop UN-ISDR Pavia, 5-6 April 2011

Methodology (HFA2) Dilley et al. (2005): Natural Disaster Hotspots – A Global Risk Analysis. Report, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and Columbia University. UN/ISDR (2009): Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate. United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland NGI (2009): Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Natural and Conflict Related Hazards in Asia-Pacific. NGI Report

Methodology GIS implementation

Application and Advancement Global landslide and avalanche hotspots. Nepal Hazard and Risk Assessment for the WB GAR 2011 Indonesia Use of PGA for 475-year event based on most recent seismic hazard study for Indonesia (Irsyam et al., 2010). Reclassification of lithological data based on knowledge of local experts: Five versus two in the global analyses for the Global Assessment Report (UN/ISDR, 2009). Use of landslide databases for calibration of hazard, exposure and risk (DesInventar, NASA, WestJava Database) Advancements in GAR 2009

Example: Hazard maps for EQ-induced landslides in Indonesia

Map of exposure to EQ-induced landslides in Indonesia

Future improvements (present gaps) Further calibration of models against observed landslides Development of vulnerability models in order to compute risk More refined seismic hazard data (for example, GEM) Prediction tools based on mechanical models (for example, model developed in EU project SAFER)

Mechanical model (SAFER) Application: Campania, Italy – Irpinia EQ 1980

Mechanical model (SAFER) Application: Campania, Italy – Irpinia EQ Map of earthquake- induced displacements

Impact Direct losses Indirect losses Exposure and physical vulnerability Potential damage on physical environment and infrastructure and loss of human lives Other gap: Time perspective

Impact Direct losses Indirect losses Preparedness and coping capacity Potential socio-economic impact on community Socio-economic/societal vulnerability: Time perspective