D. Scott Looney, Director of External Affairs Cranbrook Schools, Bloomfield Hills, MI Demography or Economics? The Impact on Admissions of External Factors

Enrollment: Public & Charter Schools Private (Parochial) Independent Demography The Economy

Enrollment: Public & Charter Schools Private (Parochial) Independent Demography The Economy

Assumptions  Demography and Economics Matter –Probably more than good marketing and admission practices  Demographic, Economic and Socio-graphic predictions are only as good as the set of assumptions on which they are based (baby boomlet error).  Economic and Demographic trends are relational.  When the Economy and Demography are pointed in the same direction (good or bad) they are compounding.  It will get either better or worse, eventually…both economic and demographic trends are cyclical… – (but only somewhat predicable).

More Assumptions  All Demography that matters is local…even to a large extent for boarding schools.  The location of a school can either insulate it from negative impacts of national demographic and economic downturns, or intensify the effects.  Schools which may feel isolated from national demographic or economic trends, can still be indirectly affected by the Government’s reaction to the trends.  Demographic research is essential, and not necessarily difficult or expensive.

IndependentEnrollment Private (Parochial) Enrollment Enrollment Public Enrollment CharterSchools? Questions for Another Day… Impact of Growth of other Types of Schools…?

Growth in Charter Schools Center for Education Reform

Economy or Demography? Which has the greater impact on enrollment growth: the economy or demographics?

Z - Scores  A “Z – Score” is a score that is converted to a common scale where scores from sets of data with different units can be compared.  Z = (Raw Score – Mean of Group Scores) Standard Deviation  In other words…what is the ratio of the difference in this specific score from the group mean (average) to the standard deviation of this group. Z-score education and explanation courtesy of Tom White, SSATB

Numbers 1 through 10 GraphedChronologically Numbers Converted to Z scores Z scores

Z Scores (Raw Score – Mean) / Standard Deviation Private, Public, NAIS Enrollment (3 –17 yrs), K to 12 th, SSAT Test Takers and GDP

National Center for Education Statistics 2001 Z Scores (Raw Score – Mean) / Standard Deviation Private, Public, NAIS Enrollment (3 –17 yrs), K to 12 th, SSAT Test Takers and GDP

Public, Private and NAIS Enrollments

Private and NAIS Enrollments

NAIS Enrollments & 1990

K- 12 th Public, Private, NAIS Core School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers, GDP and Per Capita Income in Relation to Population of Children (Difference in Z-Scores of School Age Children, ) SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis & The National Center for Education Statistics 2001

K- 12 th Public, Private & NAIS Core School Enrollment, Population of School Age Children, SSAT Test Takers in Relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 1986 to 1999 ( Difference in Z-Scores from the Public School Enrollment) NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis & The National Center for Education Statistics 2001

9 th - 12 th Private School Enrollment, NAIS Core School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers and GDP in Relation to Public School Enrollments (Difference in Z-Scores from the Public School Enrollment, ) NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis & The National Center for Education Statistics 2001

9 th - 12 th Public, Private & NAIS Core School Enrollment, SSAT Test Takers in Relation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Difference in Z-Scores from the Gross Domestic Product – Inflation Adjusted, 1986 to 1999) NAIS, SSATB, The Bureau of Economic Analysis & The National Center for Education Statistics 2001

Enrollment

Public vs. Private Enrollment Growth (Z-scores) National Center for Education Statistics 2001 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistics of Public Elementary and Secondary Schools; Common Core of Data surveys; Private School Universe Survey, various years; and National Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model. (This table was prepared May 2001.)

Enrollment Growth N.A.I.S. vs. Public and Parochial NAIS Statistics 1997, Vol.1

The Large get Larger, the Small get Smaller N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Size ( ) NAIS Statistics 1998, Vol 1.

N.A.I.S. - Enrollment Growth by School Type ( ) NAIS Statistics 2000, Vol 1.

SSAT Test Takers 1956 to 1999 Courtesy of SSATB

Private School Enrollment Projection by National Department of Education (in thousands) National Center for Education Statistics 2001

Population Demographics

U.S. Population Growth, 1950 to 2000 Source: US Census 2000 Brief: Population Change and Distribution,

Number of Births (in thousands) in the United States, American Demographics, 1997 Age 28 Age 12 Age Age 43

Numbers of Births in the United States National Center for Education Statistics 2001 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates for the 1990s," January 2001, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January 2000; and U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), Annual Summary of Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: United States, various years, National Vital Statistics Reports; and unpublished tabulations. (This table was prepared May 2001.)

U.S. Population by Age, 2000Boomers Boomlet

U.S. Population by Age, 2025Boomers Boomlet

U.S. Population by Age, 2050Boomers Boomlet

U.S. Population by Age, 2100Boomlet

The Boomlet Distribution American Demographics June 1999

Populations of School Age Children 1986 to 2011 (in thousands) SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January (This table was prepared June 2001.)

Populations of Children Age 14 to 17 from 1986 to 2011 (in thousands) SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 1092, 1095, and "National Population Estimates," June 1999, and "Annual Projections of the Total Resident Population: 1999 to 2100," January (This table was prepared June 2001.)

School age U.S Population to 2050 (in thousands)

U.S. Teen Population ages (in millions) +9%+7%+3% “What number do you think is the ideal number of children for a family to have?” Two Children More than Two Two Children More than Two %50%55%33%37%29% General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997

School Age Population 1996 and 2004 increase  Between 1996 and 2004 the numbers of school age children is projected to increase each year and 2010 decreasing  Between 2005 and 2010 the numbers of school age children should be stagnant or decreasing slightly each year and 2020dramatically decreasing  Between 2010 and 2020 there will be dramatically decreasing numbers of school age children, so… 1996 and 2020 increase very little  Between 1996 and 2020 the total number of school age children will increase very little.  After 2020dramatic increase  After 2020 there should be a dramatic increase in the number of school age children.

Suburbs Gain (percent living in central cities, suburbs and non-metropolitan areas, 1950 and 1998)

Economic Factors

Per Capita Income 1986 to 2011 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistics of State School Systems; Common Core of Data survey; Early Estimates survey; and Revenue Receipts from State Sources Model; DRIWEFA, "U.S. Quarterly Model," and National Education Association, Estimates School Statistics. (Latest edition Copyright 2001 by the National Education Association. All rights reserved.) (This table was prepared June 2001.)

Gross Domestic Product (in Billions) 1929 to 2000 in Real Dollars and 1996 Constant Dollars

H.S. Dent Foundation, from American Demographics, December 2000 The Spending Wave Births Logged for Peak in Family Spending U.S. Births Logged for Peak Spending Dow Adjusted ForInflation Immigration 50,000 70,000 1,000 30,000 10,000 5,000 Dow

Consumer Spending Peak in Spending Age 47 Age Spending 2000 H.S. Dent Foundation from American Demographics, Dec The Baby Boomers The Baby Boomers

Average Household Spending by Age Group Indexed to 100, 1997 American Demographics April 1999 Average Total

Income Demographic from 1997 to 2020 (in thousand of families) ISACS homepage: ( Number of Families (in Thousands)

Income Demographic in thousand of families (from $75,000 to over $150,000) ISACS homepage: ( Number of Families (in Thousands)

Percent of Household with Incomes of $100,000 or more, (in 1997 dollars) American Demographics, Jan In 1996, 67% of Americans agreed with the statement: “Both the husband and the wife should contribute to the household income.”In 1996, 67% of Americans agreed with the statement: “Both the husband and the wife should contribute to the household income.” In 1986, only 48% felt this way.In 1986, only 48% felt this way. General Social Survey National Opinion Research Center University of Chicago, 1997

Average Family Income by Educational Attainment of the Householder, 1997

Median Family Income by Educational Attainment of Householder, 1973 & 1997 (in 1997 dollars)

Percent Change in Average Household Spending by Age Group 1987 to 1997 (in 1997 Dollars) American Demographics April 1999

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