Context State Demographics November 3, 2008 SBCTC Policy Research Team

2 Outline Implications of population growth to 2028 Implications of population growth to 2028 Education status for Washington adults – implications for CTC future Education status for Washington adults – implications for CTC future Identify gaps – groups/locations with greater need for education and groups/locations participating less than others Identify gaps – groups/locations with greater need for education and groups/locations participating less than others

Importance of Population Growth Trends on CTC Future Historically enrollments trend up and down with growth or decline for key age groups Historically enrollments trend up and down with growth or decline for key age groups Economically driven enrollment changes do not alter this longer term historical pattern Economically driven enrollment changes do not alter this longer term historical pattern Historically participation by age key age group has increased over time - resulting in enrollment growth in excess of the population growth Historically participation by age key age group has increased over time - resulting in enrollment growth in excess of the population growth 3

Current and Future CTC FTE Enrollment to Keep Pace with Population Growth 4

Education Status in Washington Educational attainment Educational attainment A well educated state, but … A well educated state, but … Those born in Washington: Those born in Washington: More high school only & some college More high school only & some college Less associate degree or higher Less associate degree or higher Less no high school diploma Less no high school diploma Compared to other countries Washington lags in education for younger people Compared to other countries Washington lags in education for younger people 5

Washington State Has More Well Educated Adults than the US Average - % at Each Educational Attainment Level -Age 25-64, 2005 slide 6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

Washington Adults Are More Likely to have an Associate Degree or Higher Than Adults Elsewhere in the US – age 25-65, 2006 slide 7 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Adults in Washington Come Primarily from Elsewhere Education levels are different for adults born in Washington Education levels are different for adults born in Washington US average is 16% other countries, half in state and 1/3 other states US average is 16% other countries, half in state and 1/3 other states 8 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

The 36% of Adults Born in Washington Are Less Likely to have an Associate Degree or Higher - Population Age , 2007 slide 9 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

Many Countries Beat Washington’s Rate of Younger Working Age Adults with Associate Degree or Higher Age – 2006 slide 10 Source: OECD, Education at a Glance 2008

Focus Today on the 2.6 Million Adults with Less than Associate Degree 11 Examine CTC role for those with associate degree or higher in January

Region ) Region ) Age ) Age ) Male/female ) Male/female ) Race/Ethnic Race/Ethnic English language ability (ESL) SES & family income 12 Key Subsets of State Population Income is most closely related to college going and attainment OFM forecast to 2030 Census forecast to 2030

Younger Adults Go to College at Higher Rate Attending Any Sectors of Education – Washington Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

14 Differences in College Going or Attainment for Younger Population – Under 25 Younger students go to college at higher rates, but these younger adults attained less education or attend at lower rates: Younger students go to college at higher rates, but these younger adults attained less education or attend at lower rates: From lower income families From lower income families Men Men With no high school diploma With no high school diploma With need for ESL – speak other language at home and speak English less than very well With need for ESL – speak other language at home and speak English less than very well

Family Income & College Going % of Younger Adults (20-24) in School or College- Washington Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS

Distribution of State Population Age by Socio-Economic Status (SES) (2000) 16

Lower SES Young People Are Less Represented Among CTC Students Than in Population Fall 2007 CTC Age Group 17 Low % expected due to many in this group attending universities

Young Men (18-24) Participate in College at Lower Rate than Women – Washington Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS CTC pattern is similar – higher participation for women

English Language Ability 1 million people in Washington speak a language other than English at home 1 million people in Washington speak a language other than English at home 56% of that group speak English very well – but 44% need ESL to improve English 56% of that group speak English very well – but 44% need ESL to improve English The 44% that speaks English less than very well has grown by 115,000 people since 2000 (33% growth) The 44% that speaks English less than very well has grown by 115,000 people since 2000 (33% growth) English Ability of the 1,012,000 in Washington Who Speak Other Than English at Home Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

ESL/ABE Populations Participate at Low Rates 20 Source: WABERS &U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 ACS

21 For All Adults Lower College Going or Attainment Adults in rural SW and Central Washington – low education attainment Adults in rural SW and Central Washington – low education attainment Students from Central Washington – low college going Students from Central Washington – low college going Hispanic and Native Americans - low education attainment Hispanic and Native Americans - low education attainment Students go to college at parity with population or better – but parity may be too low for some groups Students go to college at parity with population or better – but parity may be too low for some groups

REGIONS Rural SW & Central Washington Adults are Half as Likely to Have a Degree As Others % of Population Age with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2006 slide 22 Washington = 42.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS 49.1 to to to to33.9

REGIONS Adults in Those Same Regions are 3 Times as Likely to Have No High School Diploma -% Population Age with no HS Diploma, 2006 slide 23 Washington = 9.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 ACS 1.6 to5.2 5 to8.6 8 to to38.7

CTC Service Levels By County 24 Service Levels: State FTE/adult population – Fall 2006 Source: OFM, 2007

Low CTC Service in Central Washington 25 Service Levels: State FTE/adult population – Fall 2006 Source: OFM, 2007

Hispanic & Native Americans in Washington Less Well Educated -% Educational Attainment of Population Age slide 26 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS This difference is greater in WA than many states

High % Native Americans, Hispanics and African Americans with Less Than Associate Degree – Washington, Age 25 to slide 27 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS

CTC Participation Rates For Students of Color compared to Population – Fall % of student population versus % in adult population Compare to rate in population Hispanics in ABE/ESL 3 times rate in population African & Asian Americans in ABE/ESL 2 times rate in population African & Asian Americans in college classes 1.5 times rate in population Native American in ABE/ESL Same as rate in population – may be too low given educational level Hispanic & Native Americans in college classes Same as rate in population – may be too low given education level No group of color below rate in population Source: Fall Enrollment and Staffing Report, 2007

Summary: Education Gaps for Washington Adults State lags other nations State lags other nations People born here have lower educational attainment People born here have lower educational attainment Lower income young people, men and ABE/ESL population go to college at lower rates Lower income young people, men and ABE/ESL population go to college at lower rates Hispanics & Native Americans in college level instruction at parity, that may be too low Hispanics & Native Americans in college level instruction at parity, that may be too low Rural SW and Central Washington have low education attainment and Central Washington people go to college at lower rates Rural SW and Central Washington have low education attainment and Central Washington people go to college at lower rates 29

To Address Gaps Will Impact Future CTC FTE Forecast for HECB Plan Assumes: Colleges will maintain current role in % of all bachelors degrees, close the skills gap - that is, meet employers need for middle level jobs, applied baccalaureate degrees will grow Requires : Outreach to populations now underserved & increased student retention – Student Achievement initiative Can forecast impact of filling gaps to 2028

Summary – Next Steps Population growth alone may require 22,000 more FTE Population growth alone may require 22,000 more FTE Can forecast FTE needed to fill or partially fill gaps - implications for mission areas Can forecast FTE needed to fill or partially fill gaps - implications for mission areas Staff will prepare report for next meeting with FTE forecast Staff will prepare report for next meeting with FTE forecast Next time – role of eLearning, CTC role for those with associate degree or higher Next time – role of eLearning, CTC role for those with associate degree or higher 31

32