Beyond The Great Recession: 2020 A Regional Summit for the Communities of South Central Pennsylvania June 13, 2012 York Holiday Inn, York, PA

The Center for Rural Pennsylvania Legislative sevice agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly (Rural Revitalization Act of 1987, amended Act 52, 2009) Mandates Administer grants to conduct research on rural conditions. Maintain a database on rural conditions and needs.

Population Density, 2010 (Number of Persons Per Square Land Mile) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

1960 Population Distribution 2010 Population Distribution Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

South Central Region is Growing

Population in South Central Pennsylvania, Population in South Central Pennsylvania, (projected) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau & Penn State Data Center

South Central Region’s Municipal Population 1960 to 2010 Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

Out-of-State In-Migration to and Out-Migration from South Central Pennsylvania to Data source: IRS

Birth and Death Rates in South Central Pennsylvania, Rate = Deaths/live births per 1,000 population Data source: PA Dept Health and U.S. Census Bureau

Municipalities with Population Decline, Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

South Central Region is Aging & Becoming More Diverse

Children & Youth and Senior Citizens in South Central Region, 1950 to 2030 (projected) Data source: U.S. Census Bureau & Penn State Data Center

Minorities, 2010 South Central Region Pennsylvania White/Non-Hispanics = 10,094,652 Minorities = 2,607,727 South Central Region White/Non-Hispanics = 1,600,935 Minorities = 287,550 Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

Non-Whites Non-Whites as Percent of Population, Non-Whites by Municipality, 2010 Data source: U.S. Census Bureau 1 Dot = 10 People

Hispanics/Latinos Hispanics/Latinos by Municipality, 2010 Hispanics/Latinos as Percent of Population, Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau 1 Dot = 10 People

Economic Stability and Growth

Employers and Employees in South Central Pennsylvania, 1980 to 2010 EmployeesEmployers Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

Employment by Industry in South Central Region, 2001 and nd Qt (818,034 Employees) 2 nd Qt (833,413 Employees) Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

Percent Change in Employment by Industry in South Central Region, 2 nd Qt to 2 nd Qt Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

Unemployment First Quarter 2012 Unemployment Rates (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Average Annual Unemployment Rates, Data source: PA Dept. Labor & Industry

Average Wages and Salaries Inflation Adjusted Average Wages and Salaries, Average Wages and Salaries, 2010 Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wages adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2010=100

Bank Deposits, Bank Deposits per Capita, June 2011 Inflation Adjusted Bank Deposits per Capita, Data sources: FDIC and U.S. Census Bureau

Labor Force Participation (Persons 16+ Years Old) Labor Force Participation Rate, Employment: Full-/Part-Time, Year Round/Seasonal, 2010 Data sources: PA Dept. Labor & Industry and U.S. Census BureauData source: 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau

Getting To Work Average Commute Time to Work (in Minutes), Percent of Persons Working in the Municipality Where They Live, Data source: ACS, U.S. Census BureauData source: 1990 Census, 2000 Census and 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau

Sources of Personal Income in South Central Region, 1970 and $5.23 Billion ($29.41 Billion Inflation Adjusted) 2010 $69.78 Billion Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Wages adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U with 2010=100

Slow Housing Market

New Housing Permits Issued in South Central Region Permits Issued, Permits Issued, 2011 Data source: U.S. Census Bureau

Homeowners at Risk of Foreclosure (Act 91 Notices), Act 91 Notices per 1,000 South Central Region Homeowners *, Homeowners at Risk of Foreclosure (Act 91 Notices) per 1,000 Homeowners* By County, 1 st Quarter, 2011 *2010 Census Owner-occupied data was used in the dominator Data source: Pennsylvania Housing Finance Agency

Housing Affordability: Ratio of Household Income Housing Payments, 2010 Mortgage Payer Homeowners Renters Data source: 2010 ACS-PUMS U.S. Census Bureau

Strong Agricultural Sector

Ag sales, 2010 Data source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Number of Acres of Farmland, Data sources: National Agricultural Statistics Service

Municipal Revenues

Number of South Central Municipalities with a Deficit, Municipalities with Deficits, 2010 Data sources: Governor's Center for Local Government Services

Municipal Tax Revenues Inflation Adjusted Municipal Tax Revenues Per Capita, Municipal Tax Revenues Per capita, 2010 Data sources: Governor's Center for Local Government Services

Adult (25+) Educational Attainment in South Central Region % Adults with Bachelor’s Degree or Higher, Highest Level of Adult Educational Attainment in South Central Region, 2010 Data sources: 1990 Census, 2000 Census and 2010 ACS-PUMS, U.S. Census Bureau

Conclusions South Center region came through the Great Recession less bruised than the rest of the state Recovery from the Great Recession has been slow Demographically South Central region is growing, it is also young and becoming more diverse The South Central region is not homogeneous in terms of economy, population change, income, etc. South Central region does not reflect statewide conditions – good or bad.

625 Forster St, Room 902 Health and Welfare Building Harrisburg, PA (717) Barry L. Denk Director