Rationalising Biodiversity Conservation in Dynamic Ecosystems (RUBICODE) Drivers of Ecosystem Service Provision For further information contact Mark Rounsevell (email: mark.rounsevell@ed.ac.uk) Funded under the European Commission Sixth Framework Programme Contract Number: 036890

What are drivers? Drivers (indirect drivers*) are the underlying causes of change in ecosystems. They are exogenous to the ecosystem and are described using narrative storylines. Pressures (direct drivers*) are the variables that quantify the relevant drivers. They are endogenous to the ecosystem and are represented in scenarios. For the purpose of this discussion we will consider both drivers and pressures. * Millenium Ecosystem Assessment terminology

Types of drivers Drivers (indirect drivers) Pressures (direct drivers) Demography Economy Socio-political Scientific and technological Culture and religion Land use/cover change (e.g. agricultural expansion or reduction, urban expansion, land and soil degradation, deforestation, habitat fragmentation) Harvest and resource consumption, including over-exploitation (e.g. wood extractions, mining, fishing and harvesting of species) Species introduction/removal (e.g. invasives, GM organisms, removal of fish) Climate variability and change (e.g. temperature, precipitation, sea level, extremes, forest fires) Air pollution (e.g. greenhouse gases, acidification, CO2 enrichment) External inputs (e.g. irrigation, fertilizers, pest control chemicals) Natural, physical, biological (e.g. volcanoes, evolution) War (e.g. testing and usage of weaponry and bombs)

Review of drivers Synthesised existing knowledge on drivers of environmental change in order to highlight commonalities, strengths and limitations. Demography is the most referenced and discussed indirect driver of environmental change. Land use and cover change, and climate variability and change are the most commonly referenced direct drivers. Natural, physical and biological phenomena, diseases and wars are the least discussed direct drivers. The majority of studies focus on one spatial scale exclusively. Confusion over differing definitions and terminology needs to be addressed to facilitate the rapid exchange of comparable information. Source: Anastasopoulou et al. (2007). http://www.rubicode.net/rubicode/RUBICODE_Review_on_Drivers.pdf

What are scenarios? Explorations of possible or plausible futures, for which an underlying set of assumptions have been made. They are used to demonstrate the drivers underpinning uncertain futures and in showing the consequences to policy-makers. They are not predictions!!

Change in cropland area (for food production) by 2080 compared to baseline (%) for the 4 SRES storylines and HADCM3 After: Schröter et al. (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science, 310 (5752), 1333-1337

Change in European cropland areas for a range of scenario studies Global studies = 1, 2 (Image), 3, 4, 5 Regional studies = 6 (Ateam), 7 (Eururalis) Source: Busch, G. (2007). Future European agricultural landscapes - What can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment

Frameworks for driver assessment: DPSIR DRIVERS PRESSURES STATE IMPACT RESPONSE Indicators Impact Assessment Feedback Policy Adaptation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as used by the European Environment Agency Quantitative Scenarios Qualitative storylines

A simple representation of the relationships between drivers, socio-ecological systems and ecosystem services Social-ecological systems SES … SES 2 SES 1 Multiple Drivers Ecosystem Services Service Providers People Source: Rounsevell, M.D.A., Dawson, T.P. and Harrison, P.A. (in review). A conceptual framework to assess the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Submitted to Biodiversity and Conservation

Framework for the Ecosystem Service Provision (FESP) Social-Ecological System States Supporting system Service Providing Units (SPUs) Drivers e.g. Economy Demography Society Technology (exogenous) Baseline/Futures Ecosystem service beneficiaries (ESB) Ecosystem service providers (ESP) Pressures e.g. Climate change Land use change Air pollution (endogenous) Impact on service provision Adaptation Baseline/Futures Valuation of services and alternatives Responses Policy, strategic decisions and management strategies Mitigation Trade-offs

Ecosystem Service Beneficiaries Services, as a concept, are only relevant within the context of service beneficiaries. The attributes of the beneficiaries, as a component part of an ecosystem, are as important as the ecological attributes.

Steps in implementing the FESP approach Define ESBs, their attributes, conflicts and level of service demand Steps in implementing the FESP approach Step 2 Define services provided to ESBs and their spatio-temporal scale Step 3 Define ESPs, their service supply attributes and supporting systems Step 4 Define the drivers and pressures that affect the ESPs and ESBs Step 7 Assess responses (mitigation and adaptation) Step 5 Quantify impacts on services Step 6 Valuation of service provision and alternatives Source: Rounsevell et al. (in review). A conceptual framework to assess the effects of environmental change on ecosystem services. Submitted to Biodiversity and Conservation.

An example: seed dispersal in the Stockholm National Urban Park Source: Hougner et al. (2006). Economic valuation of a seed dispersal service in the Stockholm National Urban Park. Ecological Economics, 59: 364-374

The acorn dispersal service 85 % of oaks in the park are estimated to result from natural regeneration by the European jay (Garrulus glandarius) How many pairs of jays does it take to provide this service? The answer is 12 jay pairs per year over 14 years

The Stockholm Urban Park (Socio-ecological system) States Oaks & Coniferous forest (Supporting) Drivers Macroeconomics, EU regulations/policies Global climate change Consumer trends Technology (exogenous) SPU threshold (12 breeding pairs) Scenarios Urban Population (ESB) Jays (ESP) Pressures Land cover changes Local climate, Local air, water, soil pollution Alien species, Increases/decreases in visitors (endogenous) Provision of cultural & aesthetic services Storylines This framework is briefly illustrated in this slide using the example shown in slide 7 for the seed dispersal service provided by Eurasian jays in Stockholm urban park. The exogeneous drivers include macroeconomics, global climate change, consumer trends and EU policies. These alter one or more of the pressures, such as local climate and changes in visitor numbers to the park, which have a direct influence on the ecosystem service. The ecosystem service provider is defined as the jays themselves, which require the oaks and coniferous forest (for nesting) as supporting habitats, and the ecosystem service beneficiaries are the urban population of Stockholm supplemented by tourists. The Service Providing Unit which defines the threshold for providing the service at the level required by the beneficiaries is 12 jay pairs, so if the number of jays falls below this threshold it will lead to an impact on the provision of the cultural and aesthetic services provided by the urban park. The cost of alternatives, such as seeding or planting by humans, was calculated as nearly 17,000 Euros per jay pair. This informs the evaluation of possible responses, including continued investment in management that safeguards the jay population at a level suitable for the continued and successfully regeneration of oak forest. Planting or seeding by humans = 16,800 €/jay pair Adaptation (application/ implementation) Valuation of alternatives Responses Protection policies Seeding/planting regimes Mitigation policy Trade-offs

Adaptation & mitigation in FESP Identifies the mechanisms of either mitigation or adaptation to the environmental change problem through the effect of response strategies on specific pressure or state variables. Mitigation seeks to reduce the severity of the pressures (e.g. use of irrigation to offset yield losses due to reduced precipitation). Adaptation addresses the capacity of the system to cope with changing pressures (e.g. changing crop planting dates to account for changing growing seasons). The social-ecological system is bounded hence responses cannot (normally) influence external drivers. However, society can choose to ‘internalise’ drivers (e.g. CAP maintains European food security by decoupling global markets (external) from agricultural prices).

Sustainable properties of dynamic systems Exogenous Endogenous

Exogenous perturbations or drivers Time State Cyclical stability STABILITY (steady state) Endogenous, pressures Constant stability Time State Perturbation/driver RESILIENCE Exogenous perturbations or drivers New Steady State? Resistance Robustness Resilience

Examples: Climate change (exogenous), evolution (endogenous) Properties of Durability (endogenous) and Robustness (exogenous) arise from a systems response to a chronic or enduring pressure Time State No Steady State Shifting trend Examples: Climate change (exogenous), evolution (endogenous)

Research needs Promotion of consistency in the definition of system boundaries (and the associated exogenous drivers and endogenous pressures). Identification of those components of scenarios where uncertainty can be quantified and which variables have high or low uncertainty. Development of participatory approaches to scenario construction that builds on a range of stakeholder perspectives. Development of scenarios of drivers/pressures that effect ecosystem service beneficiaries. Development of conditional probabilistic futures. Development of shock or ‘wildcard’ scenarios.