Density and Access to Public Transportation Support Economic Stability US Metropolitan Area Growth Patterns in the 2000s

During the 2000s… America grows, but not unilaterally* Suburbs 12% population growth Central cities 7% population growth Some begin to see economic revitalization Twice as many people live in suburbs vs. central cities Mid-decade economic boom driven by housing Gov’t policies (low interest rates) Banks eager to loan to all types of customers *Sources: Brookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America Map and New York Times, Mapping America: Every City, Every BlockBrookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America MapNew York Times, Mapping America: Every City, Every Block

Escalating Gas Prices

During the 2000s… By 2007, housing industry runs out of steam Properties begin to de-value, foreclosures rise Greatest impact felt in Several of the fastest growing metro areas “Exurbs” – areas relatively far from central cities “Drive ‘til You Qualify” Lower-income families pinched Gas prices drive up transportation costs (among other things) Declining property values and ballooning mortgage interest rates (especially sub-prime loans) Poverty rate grows faster in suburbs* Real wages of suburban households fall *Source: Brookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America MapBrookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America Map

Metro Area Trends Boom and bust in fast growing, lower-density areas Highly-auto dependent Dense, established regions seemed more economically stable Many have multi-modal public transportation networks What are the economic differences between dense metro areas with public transit systems and fast growing, lower- density regions? What are the county-level trends among these two sets of metro areas?

Importance of Metro Areas People travel across city/town and county lines for work and play Many suburbs still look to central cities for economic and social identity In some cases, starting to change

54 Metro Areas with 1 Million People or Greater* Metro Areas AtlantaCleveland-AkronIndianapolisMinneapolis-St. PaulPittsburghSan Antonio AustinColumbusJacksonvilleNashvillePortland, ORSan Diego Baltimore (Part of Washington, DC MSA) Dallas-Fort WorthKansas CityNew OrleansProvidence San Francisco-Oakland (1999 MSA includes San Jose) BirminghamDenver-BoulderLas VegasNew York City Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill San Jose (Part of San Francisco-Oakland MSA) Boston-WorcesterDetroit-Ann Arbor-Flint Los Angeles (1999 MSA includes Riverside-San Bernardino) Norfolk-Virginia Beach RichmondSeattle-Tacoma BuffaloGrand Rapids-MuskegonLouisvilleOklahoma City Riverside-San Bernardino (Part of Los Angeles MSA) St. Louis Charlotte Greensboro-High Point- Winston Salem MemphisOrlandoRochester, NYTampa-St. Petersburg ChicagoHartford Miami-Fort Lauderdale- West Palm Beach (West Palm Beach separate MSA in 1999) PhiladelphiaSacramentoTucson CincinnatiHoustonMilwaukeePhoenixSalt Lake City Washington, DC (1999 MSA includes Baltimore) *2000 Census based on 1999 MSA definitions, or American Community Survey based on 2003 CBSA definitions

Change in Metro Area Definition Federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines Metro Areas Revised standard in 2003* Previously – Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Commuting relationship between central city and outlying counties Density of outlying counties New – Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) Examine commuting patterns between counties # of metropolitan areas grew from 280 to 362 Suburbs of large metro areas split off Areas are smaller, but likely more dense Pop density figures in 2012 when metro area data for 2010 Census is released *Source - Office of Management and Budget, Standards for Defining Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas; Notice, Federal Register, Vol. 65, No. 249, 12/27/00

1999 and 2003 Metro Areas

Utilized 2000 Census and ACS 2000 Census Entire population 1/6 of households – longer-form survey – housing and economic status (discontinued for 2010 in favor of ACS) Metro Area statistics CBSA - population count MSA - characteristics American Community Survey (ACS) Surveys 2 million households each year, official since 2005 Similar to longer-form census survey 3-year average reduces margin of error Info on geographic areas with pop. of 20K or greater (annual info for areas with pop. of 65K or greater) Limitation - economic and social change during time period CBSA for all metro area data

Utilized 2000 Census and ACS Metro Areas are fluid Population and economic shifts dictate changes OMB reviews standards every 10 years Potential revision in 2013 Counties are building blocks of Metro Areas

Low Density & Large – Ample Space

Ample Space Is Consumed

Isolating Opportunity? Denser metro areas appear to be on stronger economic footing Extensive transportation network Economic base Higher per-capita income Fewer residents living below poverty line Many of the fastest growing areas during the 2000s Lower economic base Auto-dependent transportation “Drive ‘til You Qualify” Growing suburban poverty Thankfully, some of the fast-growing cities and regions are taking action

Some cities built transit systems in 2000s Systems are small, not more than 2-3 lines Reach smaller portion of population *Source: Federal Transit Administration, National Transit Database, Glossary; Websites of transportation agencies in above-mentioned cities and regionsFederal Transit Administration, National Transit Database, Glossary

Great Recession Impact Rail is expensive to build and maintain Lengthy development process Will government budget crises stall development? Every city has a bus transportation network Perception-based challenges Requires less capital to start-up Buses lose effectiveness in lower-density environments Interest in Bus Rapid Transit NYC – Select Bus Service Time will tell how successful these initiatives are

Fed Gov’t Policy HUD, DOT and EPA Partnership for Sustainable Communities Awards grants to 45 regions in December, 2010 Development of joint sustainability, affordable housing and transit plans Grantees include agencies in Austin, Houston, Sacramento “Smart Growth” Promoted by EPA Decrease distance between residential and commercial centers Other grass-roots initiatives – “Livable Communities”, “Complete Streets”

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