FAOCGIARWMO

A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to environmental stress. GECAFS Vision

How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions? Fundamental Questions

Global Environmental Change changes in the biogeophysical environment Food Systems an interconnected set of processes and activities Food Security a state or condition underpinned by food systems Key Terms

Global Environmental Change Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influenced by human activities Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality For example changes in: Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

Examples of human activities leading to GEC: Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption Urbanisation Land reclamation Agricultural intensification Freshwater extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste production Global Environmental Change

FOOD UTILISATION Components of Food Systems & Key Elements FOOD ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange

Food Security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (definition from the World Food Summit) emphasizes access for individuals, households, communities to food.

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of GEC on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security. GECAFS Goal

Achieving the Goal 1.Improve understanding of the interactions between food systems and key socioeconomic and biogeophysical components of the Earth System. 2.Deliver the new science necessary to assist policy formulation for improving food security in the face of GEC. These are to be undertaken simultaneously

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems Research Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation Decision Support

1. Conceptual & Methodological Research i.Food Systems Concepts ii.Vulnerability Concepts iii.Scenario Construction iv.Decision Support Systems 2. Food Systems Research in i.Indo-Gangetic Plain ii.Caribbean iii.Southern Africa Research Approaches

Develops a GEC science agenda that: targets generic science issues improves understanding of the interactions between the Earth System and Food Systems integrates natural and social sciences adds value to basic science by underpinning applied science underpins regionally-based food systems research Conceptual & Methodological Research  International networking approach  Led by small, specialist committees  Coordinated by dedicated Science Officers  Specific funding applications, mainly to science agencies Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation Decision Support

Develops a GEC science agenda that: targets regional scientific issues relates to regional development needs interacts effectively with the regional policy making process encourages more support for the regional science communities provides contexts for conceptual research Regional Food Systems Research  Regional studies approach  Led by regional scientists assisted by GECAFS IPO  Specific funding applications, mainly to development agencies Conditions & Scenarios Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Adaptation Decision Support

CaribbeanIndo-Gangetic Plain Southern Africa Predominant Diet Pattern Mixed, mainly imported (majority) Roots/tubers & fish (sig. minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and self-sufficiency Trade policies and competitiveness Exporting quality produce & processed products Poverty in rural communities Main GEC Issues Climate variability & extreme events Water availability Land degradation Sea currents & salinity Biodiversity loss Sea level Main GEC Issues Climate variability Glacier and snow melt Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling GHG emissions Predominant Diet Pattern Rice & fish (east IGP) Wheat/rice & meat (west IGP) Key Policy Issues Increased agric. production Limiting env. degradation Improved socioecon. conditions Reduced labour migration Main GEC Issues Climate variability & ENSO Climate mean values Water availability & quality Land degradation Biodiversity loss Predominant Diet Pattern Meat & Maize/Tubers Mixed (significant minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and self-sufficiency Regional integration and trade Rural infrastructure and market access Disaster response and “safety nets”

Research Relevance and Partnerships Science Natural Socio- economic

Science Agendas Development Agendas Research Relevance and Partnerships Science Natural Socio- economic

Science Agendas Development Agendas Policy Makers Resource Managers Research Relevance and Partnerships Science Natural Socio- economic

Food Systems Concepts Research Questions 1.What parameters describe food systems so as to facilitate GECAFS research? 2.Within given food systems, which parameters are most sensitive to GEC? 3.Who are the agents within each major food system, what are their roles, and how do they interact?

Food Systems Vulnerability Research Questions 1.What are the dimensions of risk in vulnerable food systems? 2.What are the levels of present risks and how sensitive are they to present trends and future scenarios of vulnerability? 3.How do risks compare among vulnerable populations, between regions and from the local to regional scales?

GECAFS Southern Africa initiative

Objective To identify the key issues of concern and information needs for national and regional planning with regard to food provision in the context of Global Environmental Change GECAFS Southern Africa “Issue Identification” Workshop Development Bank of Southern Africa Midrand, South Africa April 2003

Overarching questions identified: What are the vulnerable points in the food systems in Southern Africa? What are the range of options to reduce vulnerability (e.g. productions systems, trade, political)? What factors need to be included in comprehensive scenarios (climate change is one of many factors)? Is information delivered of adequate quality, timeliness and resolution? How can capacity be increased to deliver and translate technical information to improve policy formulation? GECAFS DBSA Workshop April 2003

Key outputs 1 Food security needs to be addressed at both SADC and national levels A significant proportion of the region’s food is “self provided” (especially in rural areas); but intra- and inter-national trade is also important National Food Security relates to satisfying national requirements from domestic production and trade National Self Sufficiency relates to satisfying national requirements from domestic production alone GECAFS DBSA Workshop April 2003

Key outputs 2 Agriculture in SADC is now gearing more towards commercial crops (e.g. tobacco, horticulture), and thus away in part from subsistence crops (e.g. maize, sorghum) Increasing self-sufficiency will require empowering the producer to a greater extent with regard to access to credit, insurance, land rights, etc. Institutional arrangements across the region lead to inconsistencies regarding access to technology and financial instruments. GECAFS DBSA Workshop April 2003

Follow-up discussions with region’s scientists, resource managers, policy-makers and donors => review of information needs Improved definition of Food Systems research Preparative discussion meeting (UCT, mid-September 2004) Activity since DBSA Workshop

Food Systems London Oct 04 SAVI Cape Town Oct 04 DSS Florida Jan 05 Scenarios Dhaka Mch 05 Dec 04 Food Systems WS Gaborone Day 1: Food Systems Day 2: Vulnerability of Food Systems aspects Day 3: Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC. Research Questions on Vulnerability of Food Systems and Impacts Proposal for next WS Mid 05 GECAFS SAF Research Planning WS Research Questions on Adaptation & Feedbacks Research Proposal Preparation } Apr 04 GECAFS SAF “Issue Identification” WS DBSA