1 Chapter 7 The Foreign Exchange Market

2 Foreign Exchange Markets  Exchange rate—price of one currency in terms of another: E TL/USD = 1.75 TL/dollar  Foreign exchange market—the financial market where exchange rates are determined  Spot transaction—immediate (two-day) exchange of bank deposits at spot exchange rate  Forward transaction—the exchange of bank deposits at some specified future date at the agreed forward exchange rate

3 Foreign Exchange Markets  Appreciation—a currency rises in value relative to another currency: E TL/USD decreases.  Depreciation—a currency falls in value relative to another currency: E TL/USD increases.  Why is Exchange Rate important? When a country’s currency appreciates (depreciates), the country’s goods abroad become more expensive (cheaper) and foreign goods in that country become cheaper (more expensive). Its exports fall (rise), imports rise (fall), trade deficit increases (falls). Rate of Inflation falls (rises).

4 Foreign Exchange Markets  Over-the-counter market, mainly banks and other financial inst.’s. Mostly deposits are traded, not paper currency. “Average daily global foreign-exchange turnover has grown to $4.71 trillion according to a Dow Jones Newswires analysis, underscoring how currencies continue attracting liquidity and growing as an asset class despite the uncertain state of the economy…” WSJ, July

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6 Value of Lira against Dollar  : 2.82 TL / $  1960 – August 1970: 9.08 TL / $  August 1970 – December 1971: TL/$  December 1971 – May 1974: TL / $  After 1980 variable (depreciations).

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8 Exchange Rates in the Long Run  Law of one price. Price of the same good must be the same in different countries. Assume 1 ton steel is sold at 134 TL in Turkey and 1 ton steel is sold for 100 dollar in US. According to the law of one price, exchange rate must be 1.34 TL/dollar. We assume tariffs and costs of transportation are zero.

9 Exchange Rates in the Long Run  Theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Exchange Rates between any two currencies adjusts to changes in the price levels of the two countries. PPP is a generalization of the law of one price to all goods and services

PPP theory  EX: The currency of the Country whose rate of inflation is larger than the r.o.w. _______ against other currencies.  Ex: suppose average rate of inflation is 10% in Turkey, 15% in Argentina, 3% in Euro area and 3% in the US. Order the rate of depreciation of each currency from largest depr. to smallest depr. 10

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12 Exchange Rates in the Long Run  Btw , British price level rose 84% relative to the US price level. Dollar appreciated against the pound by 43%. But the theory predicts 84% appreciation?  Why does the theory of PPP cannot fully explain ER movements?

13 Exchange Rates in the Long Run  Why does the theory of PPP cannot fully explain ER movements? Assumes trade barriers (tariffs and quotas) and transportation costs are zero. Assumes all goods are tradable across borders. But in practice many goods and especially services are not traded across borders (nontradables) like houses, haircuts, health services, etc. Assumes all goods are identical across countries. Is Turkish steel the same as American steel? Ignores expectations and exp. asset returns.

14 Factors that Affect Exchange Rates in the Long Run  Anything that increases demand for a country’s goods, services, securities, etc. anything sold in terms of that country’s currency => increases the demand for and hence the value of that country’s currency against other currencies. If demand for TR bonds fall in London market, TL ______ against other currencies. Interest rates on these bonds ______.

15 Factors that Affect Exchange Rates in the Long Run  Relative price levels. If prices of Turkish goods or securities rise (fall) relative to foreign goods, demand for Turkish goods fall (rise), then TL depreciates (appreciates). But notice the reverse feedback correction…  Trade barriers. If import tariffs increase (decrease), then TL appreciates (depreciates). Ex: if tariffs on imported German cars decrease, demand for Turkish cars decrease, TL depreciates.

16 Factors that Affect Exchange Rates in the Long Run  Preferences for domestic versus foreign goods. If Turks start to like Italian furniture more than Turkish furniture then TL depreciates.  Productivity. If Turkey’s productivity increases, then prices in Turkey decline and this causes TL to appreciate.

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18 Exchange Rates in the Short Run  An exchange rate is the price of domestic assets in terms of foreign assets  Using the theory of asset demand —the most important factor affecting the demand for domestic curr. (TL) denominated assets and foreign curr.(dollar) denominated assets is the expected returns on these assets relative to each other.

19 Comparing Expected Returns  TL denominated assets pay a real interest rate of i D  Dollar (foreign curr.) denominated assets pay real interest rate of i F  Expected depreciation of TL against dollar is where E t is TL/dollar exchange rate at time t. This is also exp. appreciation of dollar against lira.

20 Comparing Expected Returns  From a Turkish investor’s perspective, expected return from holding dollar assets is equal to  Expected return from holding TL assets in terms of liras is i D.

21 Comparing Expected Returns II So expected relative return from holding dollar assets is equal to For example, if i D is 9%, i F is 3%, and TL is exp. to depreciate 5% against dollar next year, then relative return from holding dollar assets is -1% (1% loss). Relative return from holding TL assets is +1%. (Note: assume inflation is zero)

22 Comparing Expected Returns III  Now think of holding TL assets from an American (or int’l) investor’s perspective. Return on TL assets for him is  If the American holds dollar assets instead of TL, then loses the above return, but gains i F.

23 Comparing Expected Returns III  If the American holds dollar assets, then his return is i F. But he loses the return he could have earned by holding TL assets. Exp. Return of holding dollars relative to TL assets is

24 Comparing Expected Returns III  Result: Regardless of where the investor is from or which currency you start with, exp. relative returns from holding dollar assets (which is the negative of the exp. relative return from holding TL assets) ARE EQUAL.  If exp. relative returns from holding TL assets increase, both Turkish and American investors will “buy” or “hold more” TL assets and “sell” or “hold less” dollar assets. This causes lira to appreciate, dollar to depreciate.

25 Interest Parity Condition  An equilibrium condition: If both domestic and foreign assets are held in eqbm, then expected returns must be the same on both domestic and foreign assets. Otherwise everybody would hold the one with positive exp. relative return. Nobody will hold the other asset.  In other words relative returns from holding each currency should be zero.

Interest Parity Condition  Capital mobility with similar risk and liquidity  the assets are perfect substitutes.  The domestic (real) interest rate equals the foreign interest rate plus the expected depreciation of the domestic currency 26

27 Interest Parity Condition  But in an actual economy, we do not fully observe the interest parity because of “country risk premium”. Country risk p. is the uncertainty regarding what is going to happen in Turkey in the future, like political instability.  For example, Garanti Bankası pays TL account %9, pays dollar %2. But does this mean people expect that TL will depreciate against dollar %7 during the next year? Not necessarily, part of the difference is due to the higher risk perceived of TL due to the bigger uncertainty in Turkish economy. This is called “country risk p.”.

28 Demand for Domestic (curr. denom.) Assets  Demand increases if relative expected return increases.  Suppose E e t+1 = 1,45. In which case is your TL demand higher? İf E t = 1,31 TL/dollar now or if E t = 1,80 TL now?  At lower current values of TL (everything else equal), the quantity demanded of TL assets is higher

29 Demand for Domestic Assets D 1/1,80 Quantity of TL assets 1/1,5 1/E ($/TL)

30 Supply of Domestic Assets  Supply The amount of bank deposits, bonds, and equities, all securities denom. in TL. This amount does not depend on the current exchange rate. Vertical supply curve

31 EQUILIBRIUM 1/1,5 D 1/1,60 Quantity of TL assets S 1/E ($/TL)

32 IF REAL INTEREST RATE (i D ) INCREASES for TL-denom assets 1/1,5 D 1/1,60 S D’ 1/1,20 Quantity of TL assets 1/E ($/TL)

33 IF EXPECTED INFLATION INCREASES IN TURKEY 1/1,5 D’ 1/1,60 S D 1/1,20 Quantity of TL assets 1/E ($/TL)

34 IF FED INCREASES INTEREST RATE 1/1,5 D’ 1/1,60 S D 1/1,20 Quantity of TL assets 1/E ($/TL)

35 IF EXPECTED FUTURE EXCHANGE RATE APPRECİATES 1/1,5 D 1/1,60 S D’ 1/1,20 Quantity of TL assets 1/E ($/TL)

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38 IF CBRT INCREASES MONEY SUPPLY  When the CB increases the money supply, the long run price level will increase. This means TL will depreciate in the long run, due to purchasing power parity theory. Since the expected value of TL next year is smaller, current demand for TL assets decline. Causes TL to depreciate. (first effect)

39 Exchange Rate Overshooting  Monetary Neutrality in the long run In the long run, a one percent increase in the money supply is matched by the same one percent increase in the price level  But in the short run, price level cannot increase immediately. Prices are “sticky”. So, M/P (real money supply) increases. This causes domestic real interest rate to fall (liquidity preference theory). Demand for TL declines further. (second effect)

40 Exchange Rate Overshooting Time 1/1,5 1/1,60 1/E ($/TL) 1/2

41 1/1,5 D’ 1/1,60 S D 1/1,20 Qty of TL assets Exchange Rate Overshooting D’’ 1/E ($/TL)

42 Exchange Rate Overshooting  But in the long-run, prices increase, M/P decreases back to original level and interest rate goes up again. This increases demand for TL assets. But not completely because prices are higher than before.  The exchange rate depreciates more in the short run than in the long run Helps to explain why exchange rates exhibit so much volatility

43 The EURO’S FIRST SEVEN YEARS  Euro initially depreciated in 1999&2000. Strong US growth and poor growth & low real interest rates in Europe. But after 2001, euro started to appreciate because of the recession and low interest rates (1%) in the US.The recession still did not finish completely today.

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