CLAVIER: region of interest-Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania Climate ChAnge and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern EuRope Coordination: Daniela Jacob, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Germany

CLAVIER participants RomaniaIGThe Institute of Geography of the Romanian Academy 13 RomaniaUBBUniversity of Cluj12 RomaniaINHGANational Institute of Hydrology and Water Management, Bucharest 11 BulgariaUNWEUniversity of National and World Economy, Sofia10 BulgariaNIMHNational Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia 9 HungaryEiCEnv-In-Cent Consulting Ltd., Budapest8 HungaryBMEBudapest University of Technology and Economics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Budapest 7 HungaryVITUKIVITUKI Environmental Protection and Water Management Institute, Budapest 6 AustriaJRJoanneum Research Graz5 FranceCNRSInstitut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris4 AustriaWegCenterUniversity of Graz/Wegener Centre3 HungaryOMSZHungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest2 GermanyMPI-MMax-Planck-Institute for Meteorology Hamburg,1

CLAVIER goals Investigation of ongoing and future climate changes and their associated uncertainties in Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) until 2050 Analyses of possible impact of climate changes in CEEC on weather pattern and extremes, air pollution, human health, natural ecosystems, forestry, agriculture and infrastructure as well as water resources Evaluation of the economic impacts of climate changes on CEEC economies, concentrating on four economic sectors, which are agriculture, tourism, energy supply and the public sector

CLAVIER Workpackages

Observed changes in means and extremes

2m temperature anomaly for 10 years with respect to the 40 year mean Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1961–1970 compared to the period 1961–2000 Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1971–1980 compared to the period 1961–2000 Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1991–2000 compared to the period 1961–2000 Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1981–1990 compared to the period 1961–2000 Annual Annual: negative anomaly for the large part of Europe for the first two decades, then increasing positive anomaly

2m temperature anomaly for 10 years with respect to the 40 year mean Winter: the most significant changes, the highest for Iceland and Northern Europe Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1961–1970 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1971–1980 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1991–2000 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1981–1990 compared to the period 1961–2000 for winter Winter

2m temperature anomaly for 10 years with respect to the 40 year mean Summer: similar, but not so drastic tendency Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1961–1970 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1971–1980 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1991–2000 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer Average 2m temperature anomaly ( o C) of the period 1981–1990 compared to the period 1961–2000 for summer Summer

Anomaly of daily mean temperature of the period 1991–2000 compared to the average calculated for the periods 1971–1980, 1991–2000 Annual Slight increase of the daily mean temperature for the last decade Anomaly of daily mean temperature

Anomaly of daily mean temperature of the period 1991–2000 compared to the average calculated for the periods 1971–1980, 1991–2000 for summer Summer The highest increase is in summer (up to 1.5°)

Daily maximum wind gust Frequency distribution of the daily maximum wind gust Periods: 1971–1980 and 1991–2000. Location: Budapest Budapest Increase of the heavy and stormy wind gust

Possible future changes until 2050 using IPCC scenario A1B and the modelling chain: (ECHAM5/MPI-OM driving REMO) More calculations and analyses will be done within the project

WinterSpring SummerAutumn ºC Temperature changes (A1B), 2050 (ECHAM5/MPI-OM driving REMO)

WinterSpring SummerAutumn % Precipitation changes (A1B), 2050 (ECHAM5/MPI-OM driving REMO)

CLAVIER Workpackages

CS2: Roads CS1: Grassland (Hortobágy) CS3: Buildings (roof)CS4: Heat wavesCS5: Ragweed Case studies

CLAVIER Workpackages

Selected case studies for economic investigations on: public sector (natural catastrophes, risk transfer, national level) agriculture (BUL: Severoiztochen, RO: Nord Vest,) energy (BUL: Vratsa (Kozloduj), Pleven (Belene), HU: Gyor-Moson-Sopron, RO: Arges (Vidraru)) tourism (BUL: Blagoevgrad (winter), HU: Vezprem (summer), RO: Prahova/Braşov (winter), Constanţa (summer))

WP4 – ECONOMY: Economic Vulnerability of CEE Societies and Economic Impact Assessment The CLAVIER-Region

CLAVIER Hotspot areas : Romania 1. North-West Development Region; (NUTS 2); Agriculture 2. Arges Basin; Vidraru Reservoir; Hydroelectric Power Plant; 3. Prahova Valley & Poiana Brasov, Southern Carpathians; Tourism 4. Bend Subcarpathians; Natural hazards (erosion, landslides) 5. Black Sea Coast, Constanta County; Tourism

The meteorological station at the Vitosha mountain top „Cherni Vrah“ of the Bulgarian National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Thank you!