Readings in Global Climate Change ESSP

Logistics Time/location: CH 220, Th., 11 am Instructor: Andrei Kirilenko Office: Clifford 328 Phone: Web: instruct/kirilenko/teaching/ESSP599

Format Independent reading of the assigned papers In-class discussion

Assignments During the week, read the assigned paper(s) for the next class. Write a short 1-2 page (1.5 intervals) essay summarizing the reading, or Prepare a 15-minute PowerPoint presentation on the assigned reading and be ready to lead the discussion.

Grading Essays30% Class presentations35% Discussion participation35%

Discussion topics (will change) Arctic warming. Ice sheet loss. Megalakes. The change in Midwestern climate. Long-term temperature records. The “hockey stick”. Atlantic hurricane trend. Costs and benefits. Mitigation: Kyoto protocol Kyoto protocol implementation. IPCC set of socioeconomic scenarios (SRES). Impacts on agriculture and forestry. Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment Experiment (FACE). Mitigation. Costs. Geoengineering.

Objectives Be able to search and read the scientific publications Be able to discuss the following questions –Is the climate changing? –How to measure climate change? –What are the drivers of climate change? –Is human activity the cause of climate change? –What are possible impacts of climate change? –What can be done to slow down climate change?

(strongly) suggested reading “Global warming: the complete briefing” Third edition by John Houghton –Reserved for our class in Chester Fritz library –A copy in my office

Searching for articles

Definitions Weather is the specific condition of the atmosphere at a particular place and time. It is measured in terms of such things as wind, temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, cloudiness, and precipitation. Climate is a statistical ensemble of weather conditions for a particular region and for a long time period – usually, 30 years or longer.

Weather Weather is what we see when we look out of the window. If we say that it’s cold or it’s raining – we are talking about the weather Weather can change drastically at any minute TodayThu.Fri.Sat.Sun.

Climate Climate is the total of all weather events over many years Climate is the weather that we experience over our lifetime if we live in one place

Climate is always changing 1882

Past CO2 variations Vostok data

Climate change in the past millennium Source: Tree rings, Ice core, Corals, Historical records

Climate change in the past...century (Globe) Source: –Weather stations; –Satellite measurements; –Sea water temperature –Weather balloons

How high this increase really is? Current increase since 1860 is 0.7C Medieval Optimum (MWP), 8 th -12 th centuries AD –the warmest period from 950 to 1045 AD: temperatures close to current –Vikings inhabit Iceland and Greenland –Collapses of Mayan civilization in Yucatan LIA, 16 th - mid19 th centuries (or 13 th - 17 th ?). –Minima in ~1650, 1770, 1850: temperatures 1C below current –Viking population died in Greenland; halved in Iceland –Changed agriculture practices; great famines in Europe

Climate anomalies

Future changes CO2e vs. CO2 Pre-industrial CO2e level: 280 ppm Current CO2e: 430 ppm Stabilization at 550 ppm: temperature increase by 2 – 5 C with P=0.95

Future forecasts

Other than CO2 drivers of climate Pictures: NASA, Oregon State University

Impacts and Vulnerabilities Regional variability of impacts Amplified impacts to vulnerable population groups –Those living in the areas at risk –Underprivileged groups

Major impacts of climate change Change of temperature and precipitation pattern Food production Human health, including infectious diseases Biodiversity Sea level change Weather-related extreme events

Major Weather-Related Disasters

Do the weather-related disasters happen more often? Source: NOAA

What about the other world? Annual frequencies of tropical cyclones

Sources US EPA IPCC USGS University of Oregon Online gif collections Michigan Reach Out Program