Middle East and North Africa Region Arab Climate Resilience Initiative Consultations Bahrain, October 6-7, 2010 Chandrasekar Govindarajalu, World Bank

Conclusions 2  Need for greater regional integration to meet energy needs- build infrastructure and create conditions to facilitate exchange  Suitable polices and incentives to encourage efficient use of energy, including move towards cost reflective pricing  Scale-up renewable energy to balance the fuel mix and create manufacturing opportunities

Climate Challenges in MENA 3 Impacts of Climate Change Contributions to Climate Change Vulnerabilities to Climate Change …building resilience and reducing emissions… Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

Impacts of Climate Change 4 The IPCC predicts (95% certainty):  2 degree C increase by 2050  4 degree C increase by 2100  Changes in precipitation patterns  Stronger winds (more sand storms) Combined effects of temperature increase and precipitation variability will increase the occurrence of droughts  Maghreb: Droughts have increased from 1 event every 10 years in early 20 th century to 5-6 events every 10 years today Global models predict sea levels rising from:  0.1 to 0.3 meters by 2050  0.1 to 0.9 meters by meter sea level rise would affect:  3.2% of MENA’s population  1.5% of the regional GDP  3.3% of wetlands  Egypt: A 1.0 meter sea level rise in the Nile Delta would affect 10% of the population, and 13% of Egypt’s agriculture Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

Vulnerabilities to Climate Change 5 Water: Up to 100 million people could be water stressed by 2050: Water scarcity is the highest in the world with 75% of renewable water resources withdrawn annually Agriculture: Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture Urban: A 1-3% temperature rise could expose up to 25 million urban dwellers to flooding because of high concentration of population and economic activity in flood-prone urban coastal zones Health: Climate change can cause a sharp increase in the prevalence of poverty-driven endemic diseases – malnutrition, water and vector born diseases Gender: Women and girls are at increased risk. Traditional gender roles means that climate change impacts men and women differently Conflict: In conflict-ridden areas, violence and political turmoil could escalate over resource scarcity ; e.g. water: Nile Delta, Tigris and Euphrates. Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

Contributions to Climate Change 6 Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank GHG in MENA countries are high in per capita terms (60% higher than the average among developing countries) However, in absolute terms the region is a relatively small carbon emitter, accounting for some 5-6% of global emissions Greenhouse Gas Emissions in MENA Region:

Region Characterized by Increasing Energy Intensity

Reducing Emissions 8 Mitigating climate change by reducing emissions will require increased investments in renewable energy sources and a commitment to low- carbon growth. Energy Urban Development Transport Agriculture / Forestry Reducing Emissions Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank

Reducing Emissions: Energy 9 Building Resilience and Reducing Emissions Middle East and North Africa Region – The World Bank Strategic Response Promote efficient and sustainable use of energy resources, e.g.: Introduce price incentives, and develop appropriate finance mechanisms Promote energy efficient equipment Establish energy services companies Reduce gas flaring, leakage and fugitive emissions Develop renewable energy sources: cost reflective energy pricing Suitable policy and regulatory framework Scale-up investments to achieve economies of scale and reduce manufacturing costs Awareness raising GHG Emission 85% of regional GHG emissions come from energy production, transformation and use Emissions are concentrated in the oil producing countries Barriers Predominance of oil in the fuel mix High rates of energy subsidization distorts prices Limited development of renewable sources Inefficient pattern of energy use Continued high and volatile fuel prices strain finances of net importing countries

Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Worth considering for CSP Areas Suitable for Solar Energy Development

CSP Scale-up in MENA: Global impacts MENA and South Western USA/Mexico offer best physical resources and market access Economies of scale best achieved there, driving cost reduction in the global CSP market So major contribution to climate change mitigation Major potential for concessional climate financing from UNFCCC/Copenhagen Accord

Why solar energy is important for MENA? Oil and gas producers: frees up oil and gas for higher value-added uses/exports Oil and gas importers: energy security Industrial diversification and job creation Entry into global industry starting to take off High demand growth for electricity, including for desalination Export revenue from high-paying green electricity markets in Europe

MENA CSP Investment Plan US$ 5.6 Billion MENA CSP Investment Plan endorsed by CTF December 2009 US$ 4 Billion for 1 GW generation, US$ 1.6 Billion for transmission Financing from private and public funds, concessional and non-concessional Modest CDM revenues expected (~ 1 US ¢ /kWh) CTF contribution US$ 750 Million Additional US$ 1.4 Billion of concessional funding is required

2 2 Jordanian Medring 1 Tunisia-Italy HVDC 1 Projects create transmission corridors for subregional exports (Maghreb, Mashreq, GCC)

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