Financial Stability 1/2003 Charts Chapter 1

Chart 1.1 Number of bankruptcies, employees and sales of bankrupt companies. Index 1) Turnover and employment in last normal operating year 2) Annualised figures based on Q Source: Statistics Norway Employees 1) Number of bankruptcies Sales value 1) 2)

Chart 1.2 Banks' pre-tax operating profit/loss on ordinary activities as a percentage of ATA 1) 1) Average total assets. Parent bank 2) Annualised figures for 2003 based on Q1 Source: Norges Bank 2)

Chart 1.3 Non-performing loans and recorded loan losses in banks. Percentage of gross lending Annualised loan losses Non-performing loans per quarter Source: Norges Bank

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks 2) Den norske Bank (incl. Postbanken throughout the period), Nordea Bank Norge and Gjensidige NOR Sparebank Source: Norges Bank Chart 1.4 Deposit-to-loan ratios in banks 1). Percentage of gross lending 4th-8th largest Other 3 largest 2)

Credit from domestic sources (C2) 2) 1) Percentage of GDP 2) Percentage of mainland GDP Source: Norges Bank Chart 1.5 Credit as a percentage of GDP Total credit (C3) 1) Total credit to mainland Norway 2)

Chart 1.6 Household borrowing rate after tax deflated by consumer price inflation 1). Per cent 1) With effect from 2001 Q4, rise in the CPI-ATE is used as deflator Source: Norges Bank

Charts Chapter 2

Source: EcoWin Chart 2.1 International equity price indices. Indexed, = 100 Japan, Topix Europe, Stoxx Norway, OBX US, S&P 500

Chart 2.2 Relationship between price and future earnings 1) for companies in the S&P 500 index 1) Actual and estimated (from Q4 2002) annual earnings one year ahead from the price date Sources: Standard and Poor’s and Norges Bank

Source: Datastream Chart 2.3 Effective yield on government bonds with 10 years to maturity Euro countries US

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Chart 2.4 Components of wealth among US households. In billions of USD Equities Bank deposits etc.

Chart 2.5 Default rates for corporate bonds 1) and bank loans 2) in the US. Percentage outstanding Bank loans Bonds 1) The figure for 2003 is the average for January-April 2) Non-performing loans more than 30 days after due date Sources: Datastream and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

1) Banks where insolvency proceedings have been initiated Source: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chart 2.6 Bank failures 1) in the US. Measured in terms of total assets (USD bn) and number of banks Total assets (right-hand scale) Number of banks (left-hand scale)

Source: EcoWin Chart 2.7 Bank index and total index in Japan. Indexed, = 100 Total index (Topix 500) Bank index

Source: EcoWin Chart 2.8 Yield differentials between government debt of some emerging economies and US government bonds. Percentage points Brazil Turkey Asia Venezuela Eastern Europe

1) Weighted average of telecoms and IT index Source: EcoWin Chart 2.9 Sub-indices on the Oslo Stock Exchange. Indexed, = 100 Energy ICT 1) All share index (OSEBX) Financial Industrials

Charts. Box P/E ratio for the Norwegian stock market

1) Total market value at year-end divided by total profit/loss on ordinary activities same year Sources: Dun & Bradstreet, Oslo Stock Exchange and Norges Bank Chart 1 Price earnings (P/E) ratio for companies listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange 1)

1) Annual profit/loss on ordinary activities Sources: Dun & Bradstreet, Oslo Stock Exchange and Norges Bank Chart 2 Market value at year-end and earnings 1) for companies listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange. In billions of NOK Market value (right-hand scale) Earnings (left-hand scale)

Charts Chapter 3

Chart 3.1 Business sentiment indicator. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index 1) 1) A value below 0 implies that the majority of industrial leaders expects a weaker outlook in the next quarter. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Total Personal financial situation Country's economic situation 1) Provides an expression of the share with a positive assessment of the current situation and outlook for the future less the share with a negative assessment Source: Norsk Gallup Institutt AS Chart 3.2 Consumer confidence indicator 1). Unadjusted figures

Chart 3.3 Rise in house prices and growth in credit to households. 12-month growth. Per cent Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents and Norges Bank Credit growth Rise in house prices

Source: Norges Bank Chart 3.4 Household gross financial assets, housing wealth and debt. Percentage of disposable income Gross fin. assets Debt Gross fin. assets excl. insurance claims Housing wealth

Chart 3.5 Households' total debt as a percentage of the value of housing wealth Source: Norges Bank

Chart 3.6 Number of dwellings sold. In thousands 1) House properties. Unrestricted sales. Including housing cooperative dwellings Source: Statistics Norway and NBBL

Chart 3.7 Household debt burden 1) and debt as a percentage of disposable income less expenses for necessities 2) Source: Norges Bank 1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income 2) Food, non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear Debt/disposable income less necessities Debt burden

Chart 3.8 Household debt burden 1) in selected countries. Annual figures 1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income Sources: OECD, Sveriges Riksbank and Norges Bank Japan Norway Sweden UK US

Chart 3.9 Household interest burden 1) and the borrowing rate Source: Norges Bank Interest burden Borrowing rate after tax 1) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income plus interest expenses

Chart 3.10 Gross financial capital (excl. insurance claims) as a percentage of household debt in By income decile and interest burden 1) 1) Interest expense as a percentage of disposable income Source: Statistics Norway Interest burden less than 20% Interest burden over 20%

Chart 3.11 Total sales of bankrupt enterprises, total and for selected industries. In billions of NOK 1) Property management, commercial services and rental activities ManufacturingAll industries (left-hand scale) Property management etc. 1) Construction 2) 2) Annualised figures based on Q Source: Statistics Norway

Chart 3.12 Gross fixed investment by industry as a percentage of real capital in the industry Source: Statistics Norway Construction Commercial services Post and telecoms Fishing and fish-farming Manufacturing

Chart 3.13 Banks' lending to enterprises, by industry. 12-month growth. Per cent Services, property management etc. Retail trade 2) Total enterprises Manufacturing etc. 1) 1) Manufacturing, mining, utilities and construction 2) Retail trade, hotels and restaurants Source: Norges Bank

Chart 3.14 Probability of default for large unlisted enterprises 1). Per cent 1) Non-financial, unlisted enterprises with a turnover of more than NOK 70 million. Probability of default within one year Source: Moody's KMV Median of 20% weakest Median enterprise Median of 50 % weakest

Chart 3.15 Probability of default for large unlisted enterprises. Median observation. Per cent Source: Moody's KMV Norway Sweden Finland Denmark

Source: Norges Bank Chart 3.16 Banks' loans to property management. Per cent Annual change (left-hand scale) Property management as a share of total bank loans (right-hand scale)

Source: OPAK Chart 3.17 Rental price for and value of office premises in central Oslo. Price per square metre Rental price normal standard (left-hand scale) Rental price prestigious pemises (left-hand scale) Average value (right-hand scale)

Source: Eiendomsspar Chart 3.18 Vacant office premises in Oslo, Asker and Bærum. In thousands of square metres. As of February

Chart 3.19 Debt burden of non-financial enterprises excl. petroleum and shipping. Per cent of cash surplus 1) excl. interest expenses 1) Cash surplus = Value added - labour costs + gross or net capital income 2) An audit of the figures has led to an increase in corporate sector capital income since the November 2002 Financial Stability report Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Debt burden based on gross capital income Debt burden previous report 2) Debt burden based on net capital income

Chart 3.20 Interest burden of non-financial enterprises excl. petroleum and shipping. Per cent of cash surplus Interest burden based on gross capital income Interest burden previous report 1) Interest burden based on net capital income 1) An audit of the figures has led to an increase in corporate sector capital income since the November 2002 Financial Stability report Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Charts Chapter 3, Box 1 P/E ratios for dwellings

Chart 1 House prices deflated by the building cost index and the annual wage index. Index, 1987=100 Source: Norges Bank Deflated by the building cost index Deflated by the annual wage index

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Chart 2 The P/E ratio for the housing market and households' real borrowing rate P/E Average Real borrowing rate

Charts Chapter 4

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks Source: Norges Bank Chart 4.1 Banks 1) financing in bond and money markets and deposits and loans from financial institutions. Percentage of gross lending Bond financing Money market financing Deposits and loans from financial institutions

Chart 4.2 Residual maturity on banks 1) financing in money and capital markets 2). March Percentage of gross lending 1) Excluding branches of foreign banks 2) Deposits and loans from credit institutions, bonds, notes and short-term paper Source: Norges Bank 4th-8th largest Other 3 largest

Chart 4.3 Banks 1) short-term foreign debt 2). Percentage of gross lending 4th-8th largest Other 3 largest All banks 1) Excluding branches of foreign banks 2) Deposits and loans from other financial institutions and notes and short-term paper Source: Norges Bank

Chart 4.4 Three largest banks: liquid assets (line) and short-term domestic and foreign debt 1) (coloured areas). Percentage of total assets 1) Deposits and loans from other financial institutions and notes and short-term paper Source: Norges Bank Liquid assets Short-term domestic debt Short-term foreign debt

Liquid assets Short-term domestic debt Short-term foreign debt Chart 4.5 4th to 8th largest banks: liquid assets (line) and short-term domestic and foreign debt 1) (coloured areas). Percentage of total assets 1) Deposits and loans from other financial institutions and notes and short-term paper Source: Norges Bank

Liquid assets Short-term domestic debt Short-term foreign debt Chart 4.6 Other banks 1) : liquid assets (line) and short-term domestic and foreign debt 2) (coloured areas). Percentage of total assets 1) Excluding branches of foreign banks 2) Deposits and loans from other financial institutions and notes and short-term paper Source: Norges Bank

1) Excluding branches of foreign banks 2) Customer deposits, equity and bonds 3) Loans and fixed assets Source: Norges Bank Chart 4.7 Banks’ 1) stable funding 2) as a percentage of illiquid assets 3) 3 largest 4th-8th largest Other

Chart 4.8 Number of banks by value of liquidity indicator Source: Norges Bank Sept Dec March 2003

Charts Chapter 5

1) Figures for the first quarter multiplied by 2 Source: The Banks' Payment and Central Clearing House Chart 5.1 Operational abnormalities in the payment system for ordinary payments. Number of errors and total errors weighted according to significance (consequence index). Bi-annual figures 1)

1) Figures for the first quarter multiplied by 2 Source: The Banks’ Payment and Central Clearing House Chart 5.2 Operational abnormalities in the payment system for large-value payments. Number of errors and total errors weighted according to significance (consequence index). Bi-annual figures 1)

Charts Chapter 6

Source: Norges Bank Chart 6.1 Number of banks distributed by pre-tax profit. Percentage of average total assets

Chart 6.2 Loss on loans as a percentage of gross lending 1) distributed by bank groups 3 largest 4th - 8th largest Other 1) Cumulative quarterly figures. Annualised Source: Norges Bank

Chart 6.3 Pre-tax profit as a percentage of average total assets 1) distributed by bank groups 3 largest 4th - 8th largest 1) Cumulative quarterly figures. Annualised Source: Norges Bank Other

Source: Norges Bank Chart 6.4 Number of banks distributed by core capital ratio

Chart 6.5 Gross non-performing loans by sector. All banks. In billions of NOK Other sectors Household sector Source: Norges Bank Corporate sector

Chart 6.6 Percentage distribution of corporate loans. All banks Source: Norges Bank

Chart 6.7 Recorded losses (excl. change in unspecified losses) as a percentage of loans to different industry sectors. All banks Source: Norges Bank Value=8.0

Break-even result before losses Same profit/loss as in 2002 Chart 6.8 The 8 largest bank groups’ ability to withstand losses with a break-even result before losses and with the same profit/loss as in 2002 respectively. Losses over 3 years Source: Norges Bank and banks' financial statements for 2002

Source: Norges Bank Baseline scenario Stress test scenario Chart 6.9 Developments in financial institutions’ losses on lending to households and non-financial enterprises. Baseline scenario and stress test scenario 1). Percentage of gross lending 1) Based on the assumptions in the baseline scenario from Inflation Report 1/03. The loan loss equations for households and non-financial enterprises are described in an article in Economic Bulletin 2/03.

Charts Chapter 6, Box 1

Source: Norges Bank Chart 1 Probability of bankruptcy in banks' portfolio of loans to limited companies, distributed by different bank groups. Per cent Small banks Medium-sized banks 8 largest banks

Charts Chapter 6, Box 2

Gross debt in municipalities, non-financial institutions and households Commercial banks' lending Chart 1 Gross debt in municipalities, non-financial institutions and households and commercial banks' lending as a percentage of nominal GDP Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) 2) 1) The increase in 1960 is partly due to a downward revision of GDP in connection with the transition to a new national accounting standard. 2) The marked fall in 1970 is due to an upward revision of GDP in connection with the transition to a new national accounting standard. 3) 3) Mainland C3 as a percentage of mainland GDP is used as from 1995.