Shane Cherry Midge Simpson Critical Infrastructure Protection / Resilience Simulator May 29, 2009 Stuart Walsh:

Agenda CIPRsim Background and Genesis Technology Objectives Modeling and Simulation Framework Potential Applications

CIPRsim Genesis Build high fidelity model of cellular and power grid interdependencies Offer extensible critical infrastructure M&S framework Predict failure of key nodes and cascading events by scenario & geographic area Initially Developed to Support Larger DoD Effort

Key CIPRsim Concepts Proven Standard Simulation Framework –Distributed Architecture Using IEEE 1516 protocols: High Level Architecture (HLA) Federated Design, built for Extensibility, Scalability and Compatibility –Utilize Best Available Models Whenever Possible: Legacy and New –Physics Based Simulations –Compatible with existing COPs (iCAV, TRITON, Google Earth, etc.) Simultaneous Simulation Interactions –Real-Time and Faster than Real-Time Asynchronous Simulation Communication –Cascading Events and Predictive Assessments

Basis for Federated Design Concept No Single Simulation Can Satisfy Needs of All Users –Users Differ in Interests and Requirements for Fidelity and Detail Simulation Developers Vary in Their Knowledge of Domains to be Simulated –No Single Set of Developers is Expert Across All Details Even in One Domain No One Can Anticipate All the Uses of Simulation and All the Ways Simulations Could be Fully Combined Future Technology, Tools and Improved Models Must be Incorporated Kuhl, Weatherly and Dahmann

Modeling, Simulation - Infrastructure Emulation Power Grid Modeling PC Tides Disaster Models Wireless Communication Modeling DoD Sim Framework & Visualization Data Scene Generation HSIP Gold FERC Industry

Real World Assessment Real World Assessment Crisis Response Planning Crisis Response Planning Course of Action Analysis Course of Action Analysis Prepare and Train Forces Prepare and Train Forces Manage Crisis Manage Crisis Restore Operations Restore Operations Operational Utility Restoration AnalysisResponse PlanningPreparation

Distributed – Federated - Simulation Threat EventGeographical Area Asset Data Operations Command Post Threat Model Wireless Model RTDS and Application Server

Hazard Simulation and Visualization HURRICANE WINDS STORM SURGE AND FLOODING EARTHQUAKE - PGA Sim time: 24 hrs WILDFIRE PROPOGATION

Cascading Effects and Infrastructure Status ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE COMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE INFRASTRUCTURE COMPONENT IDENTIFICATION AND STATUS

“Play-by-Play” Simulation Results

Supported JFCOM Noble Resolve 08 Generated Area of Interest Specific Models for Indiana to Support Noble Resolve Experiment –Earthquake and After-Shock Models –Electrical Infrastructure Model –Wireless and Emergency Communications Model Utilize Unified Vector Data Set – HSIP Gold – As Primary Data Supporting Electrical and Communications Model Inputs WMS Feeds to iCAV, TRITON, KML to Google Earth

Compatibility TRITON DHS iCAV Google Earth MAK Stealth

Extensibility Multiple Hazard Models – Potential Framework for an “All Hazards Environment” Utilizing “Models of Choice” –Hurricane – U.S. Navy PC Tides 2.0 –Earthquake – USGS Boone, Joyner, and Fumal 1997 –Wildfire – U.S. Forest Service FARSITE –Cyber Threat Emulation –Manually Initiated Effects CI / KR Sectors and Components –Electric Power –Wireless Communications –Process Control Systems –Others coming… Sim time: 24 hrs

Scalability INL Model Assets –Electrical Infrastructure Switchgear Breakers Transformers Tampa / St. Petersburg Model Assets –Electrical Infrastructure Substation “High” Voltage Transmission Lines

Potential Applications – FY09 Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense – Homeland Defense and America’s Security Affairs (OASD-HD&ASA), Defense Critical Infrastructure Program (DCIP) –Enhance Electric Grid Simulation and Situational Awareness Capabilities RTDS: High-Fidelity, Component Level Simulations Enhanced Predictive Grid State Analysis Regional Level Power Simulations Power System Status Data Feeds

Potential Applications – FY09 Office of Assistant Secretary of Defense – Homeland Defense and America’s Security Affairs (OASD-HD&ASA), Defense Critical Infrastructure Program (DCIP) –Disaster Response: Improving Security of DoD Communications Systems and Networks During Support to Civil Authorities DoD Assets Connected to Civilian Infrastructure Networks DoD Support to Civil Authorities Introduced Vulnerabilities to DoD Networks

Potential Applications – FY09 DHS National Cyber Security Division (NCSD), Control System Security Program (CSSP) –Simulate Cyber Vulnerability Exploits to Industrial Control Systems and Resulting Cascading Effects on Critical Infrastructure Sectors Virtual World Depiction Cascading Effects: Real World Depiction Cyber Threats Interactive Play Hardware-in-the-Loop Network, Control System and Infrastructure Models

Back Up Slides

Failure of actual assets is stochastic Standard methodology – fragility models Data from a variety of sources Damage Assessment