The dynamics of energy demand What is energy used for and how does this change? Elizabeth Shove Lancaster University Sustainable Thermal Energy Management International Conference (SusTEM2015), July 7th – 8th, United Kingdom

Meeting CO2 emissions targets means reducing energy demand. The research councils UK funded 6 “End use energy demand” centres: interpretations of demand vary across the centres. A consequence of the relative efficiency of ‘demand’ technologies (not supply) A consequence of population, income and some level of technological development/efficiency A ‘resource’ that energy providers can manipulate and mobilise, e.g. in managing load profiles through demand response or demand reduction – negawatts and negumption A more or less predictable ‘need’ which energy providers/technologies and infrastructures have to meet For some, energy demand is:

USA 2005 Where does demand begin? How do everyday practices evolve? How much energy is ‘drawn’ through society? Energy demand is an outcome of social practices

People do not use energy for its own sake Energy demand is an outcome of what people do at home, at work and in moving around. There are many practices that call for energy: heating, cooling, lighting, cooking, office working etc. These are changing all the time. They have different histories and they change in different ways. Energy demand reduction depends on the practices which draw energy through society. Energy consumption and energy demand

Hughes: Networks of Power, The need for electricity is made one practice at a time. Energy is never used in the abstract

Energy use is almost always mediated by some kind of technology Such technologies (air conditioning systems, freezers, lights, cookers, electric grids) are also implicated in shaping what people do. In shaping what people do, technologies and infrastructures are also implicated in the dynamics of energy demand. Even ‘efficient’ technologies legitimise and sustain increasing demand: e.g. air conditioning, freezers, heating systems. Technology and demand

Specific combinations of fuels and technologies co-constitute the practices of which society is made, and the material arrangements amidst which such practices transpire Lighting technologies and lighting demand constitute each other: spots to spaces

Energy is part of accomplishing many social practices each of which have a history and a dynamic of their own. Energy demand in the singular makes no sense

The dynamics of comfort There is nothing natural about 22⁰C

Methods of investigating this relationship: Archive research in two UK towns from – the design of specific council estates: Stocksbridge (built 1930s) Stevenage (Built 1950s-60s) Oral histories with people of different ages who have lived in those locations Questions focusing on the period when they were years old. In detail: how do infrastructures and practices co-evolve? How ‘normal’ provision evolves How homes have been adapted and updated How people have kept warm in winter – at different points in their lives, and in the overall ‘life’ of their home.

Years discussed in detail StocksbridgeStevenage 1940s Now aged 80, s Now aged 90, 88, 65 Now aged s Now aged 88, 80, 77, 65Now aged 80, 76, 75, 72, s Now aged 88, 77, 71, 70, 65, 58Now aged 76, 72, 66, 62, s Now aged 83, 71, 70, 66, 65, 58 Now aged 62, 62, 60, 60, s Now aged 66, 58 Now aged 60, 44, s Now aged 51, 38, 38 Some interviewees spoke about more than one decade 15 in total11 in total Who we spoke with

Central heating and that knocking it through and I think they did some work in the kitchen as well, making that bigger. - space Upstairs was another world One coal fire: unheated bedrooms New uses of space Previously separate rooms knocked through with the arrival of central heating Many technologies of keeping warm Eiderdowns and blankets, Pyjamas, no duvets, hot water bottles; plates heated in the oven to warm the bed, bed socks, electric blankets

Television and space heating: TV in front room She had a fire like that, a plug in thing. Yeah she’d say ‘I’m not putting the [coal] fire on for you to just watch telly for an hour’ so not doing coal fire if we were just sitting there for half an hour. A famous cup final it was Blackpool and Bolton, I’ll never forget that. That’s when got our first telly, so that’s when we started using the living room, you only used it for parties and Christmas if that. conjunctions of space, heat and TV

1940s Solid fuel, coal, logs: one room heated Fire places in other rooms but not used other than illness or special event Cold or snug depending on location and time of day 1950s Solid fuel but Parkray stoves, plus radiator. Gas fire in second downstairs room. 1960s As above but with ‘top up’ heaters: electric bars in the bathroom, paraffin heaters, convector heaters, electric blankets. 1960s-1970s Many combinations: parkray, parkray plus radiators, gas fire, gas fire plus radiators, storage heaters (especially in the hall) 1970s-1980s Open grate replaced with gas central heating and radiator in every room, but not always used. Double glazing added. Duvets arrive from the Continent, blankets disappear. More rooms in use: reading in the bedroom, less clothing worn. Heating creeps around the home Heating matters for how homes are used Heating matters for the details of daily life Heating systems are used in different ways down up down up down up SPACE heating and heating SPACE down up Simplified house plans showing heated space over time

1930s1940s1950s1960s1970s1980s1990s2000s2010s Each row represent one respondent’s experience

Future scenarios: heat pumps and district heating by 2050 Heat networks: total space heating at 22° C. Heat pumps: background and top up heating Either gas, electric, or solid fuel (wood). down up down up Challenging or reproducing the model of full gas central heating and the ideal of 22⁰C Future scenarios: somewhat different ways of living

Electric cooking Showering Washing up Using laptop home server wirelesss Keeping warm Electricity or wood, coexisting systems clothes Energy infrastructures, mediated by appliances, enable many practices at once - and depend on them.

The changing relation between infrastructures and appliances Local policies, international systems of provision, trade, diet From built in larder to electric fridge: 1928 plans and from estate agents: 2014

Council responsibility Infrastructure No choice, part of the home. Keeping food cool Politics of provision Infrastructure/appliance Ambivalent infrastructure Tenant/Council Market competition Appliances Individual consumers Tenant responsibility

Shell and core will comprise the structure, its cladding, its base plant, completed common areas and external works. More specifically it will generally include: High and low voltage switchgear. Transformers. Lift systems. A standby generator. Boilers. Chillers. Cooling towers. Water and fuel tanks. Sprinkler plant. Building control systems. Air conditioning chambers and fans. Water and fuel pumps. Dry risers. Fire detection, alarm and hose reel systems Design to meet all needs. Everything else is taken out again when the tenant leaves Politics of provision and the commercial organisation of energy demand

Basic provision Fitting out 6 year lease 99 year lease Fixity Flexibility Responsibility ‘over sizing’ Escalation Standards and specifications Politics of provision Institutional arrangements and interests lie behind current specifications/standards. These arrangements – and the energy demands that follow - could be different.

What are “normal” opportunities to consume energy and how do these change? Present patterns of energy demand are not inevitable: they have been different in the past, they will be different in the future. Infrastructures and technologies make and do not simply meet energy demand: they are part of constituting and sustaining social practices that draw energy through the system There is a recursive relation between infrastructures and practices (home heating matters for what is done in the home and vice versa) The institutional organisation of responsibility (council, owner, developer, tenant) matters for interpretations of ‘normal’ provision and for how this changes.

Rhythms of daily life and peak demand UK What are peaks made of? sleeping

Data from the multi-national time use studies, Finland These graphs show what people are doing at different times of day. They show that France is more ‘synchronised’ than Finland. Especially at lunchtime. Such patterns matter for what happens when, and hence for peak demand. Societal synchronisation France If energy consumption is an outcome of societal rhythms and dynamic patterns of practice, research and intervention relating to peak load should focus on time, timing and social practice This is not a matter of individual choice and decision making. Lunch time

Societal synchronisation and energy demand Synchronisation high Energy demand higher Many people doing the same energy-intensive activity at the same time E.g. evening TV, dinner Many people doing different energy-intensive activities at the same time E.g. Morning peak; week-ends Many people doing the same lower energy activity at the same time E.g. sleeping Many people doing different lower energy activities at the same time E.g. Week-end troughs Synchronisation low Energy demand lower

Flexibility, sequences and change over time Who does the laundry and when? Already more at the weekend in 2005 Relation to other practices Patterns of employment

Change over time: paid work through the day Source:Gershuny, J (2011) Time-Use Surveys and the Measurement of National Well-Being, Centre for Time-use Research Department of Sociology University of Oxford(12 September 2011)

Multiple opportunities for policy intervention to reduce (and shift) energy demand Internet, IT and the nature of work Working hours and employment policies Systems of provision and supply chains The dynamics of energy demand depend on: Public/private sector interfaces Rules and standards (not of energy)

USA 2005 A footnote: Questions of efficiency Efficiency: makes more useful energy available for the same input – at every stage. Efficiency: delivers the same service for less energy

Questions of efficiency 2CV in the 1950s: 64mpg The C1 today similar mpg but with double the weight and double the top speed. Would a modern engine in a 1950s 2CV be more efficient? Would a 1950s 2CV count as a car today? What is the reference point for judgements of efficiency?

Questions of efficiency obscure questions of service obscure the ways in which technologies constitute demand tend to have no history (what is the reference point?) isolate technologies – the freezer not the food system Efficient technologies often help reproduce unsustainable patterns of demand A+ energy rating fridge-freezer-stainless-steel aspx

Many people think Energy demand reduction depends on making technologies more efficient, and persuading people to adopt them. However Technologies and infrastructures are implicated in making and reproducing services and practices. Efficient technologies sustain social practices that call for high levels of energy demand. DEMAND reduction depends on reconfiguring services and social practices. DEMAND reduction depends on recognising that technologies and infrastructures do not simply meet existing needs: they shape future practices and the demands that follow. - To finish

Many people think However There are many areas of public policy that unknowingly impact on the range of social practices enacted in society, and hence on energy demand. These include education, employment, business, health, planning and more. DEMAND reduction Depends on understanding the unintended consequences that ‘non energy policies’ have on what people do, and hence on energy demand. DEMAND reduction Depends on actively fostering new social arrangements and different ways of life. The only policy relevant to energy demand reduction is energy policy.

Are about change and variation in energy demanding practices How and why are specific energy demanding practices changing today? How do such changes relate to infrastructures/technologies? How do interpretations of normality and need evolve? How is energy demand constituted, how does it change, how can it be steered? The really big questions