The Information Society Index Emerging Virtual Have and Have Not Countries Wilford H. Welch World Times Inc. Stanford University December 1, 1999

Can All Societies Really Catch up?

Information Societies Must Have Four Legs Information Society

The ISI ’s Four Legs and 23 Variables SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE Secondary school enrollment Tertiary school enrollment Newspaper readership Press freedom Civil liberties INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE Telephone lines/household Telephone faults/lines Television ownership/capita Radio ownership/capita Fax ownership/capita Cellular phones/capita Cable/satellite TV coverage COMPUTER INFRASTRUCTURE PCs installed/capita Home PCs shipped/household Gov’t/commercial PCs shipped/non-agric. workforce Education PCs shipped/students & faculty Networked PCs % Software/hardware spending INTERNET INFRASTRUCTURE eCommerce spending # Internet home users # Internet business users # Internet education users

Which Countries Does the ISI Track Each Year? 55 countries accounting for 96% of global GDP and 99% of IT expenditures Third year of ISI research 1999 ISI based on 1997 actual data, 1998 estimates and 2002 forecasts

Third Annual ISI Results

“Stroller” Stage of Development “Stroller” Stage of Development Examples: Peru - China - Egypt - India - Indonesia -

“Sprinter” Stage of Development “Sprinter” Stage of Development Examples: Argentina - Malaysia - Chile - Mexico - Brazil - Ecuador

“Strider” Stage of Development “Strider” Stage of Development Examples: Australia - Japan - Canada - UK - Taiwan

“Skater” Stage of Development “Skater” Stage of Development Examples: US - Norway - Finland - Singapore - Sweden

In Conclusion, the Reality is: The Gaps are Widening In Conclusion, the Reality is: The Gaps are Widening Gap 1: US and the rest of the world Gap 2: Between the Striders and Sprinters Gap 3: Between the 55 ISI countries and the 150 other countries of the world with 40% of the population, 4% of GDP and less than 1% of IT $ Gap 4: Gaps within developing countries

What are the real drivers? Proximity to major information society such as the US (e.g. Canada, Israel in terms of political/economic patronage Distance (e.g. Australia forced by need for internal and external communications) Political will and effective execution (e.g. Singapore)

In Conclusion, Where Should Countries and Companies Invest? In Conclusion, Where Should Countries and Companies Invest? Sustained investment in all four infrastructures is key to a society’s development, as is political will Focusing on the US and other fast growing major markets is the obvious strategy for vendors; but consider: - the early adopters - designing products to meet the needs of the poorer countries which are currently being overlooked