Enrollment Projecting The Magic of Modeling and Deposits Rachel Morris Data & Reporting Coordinator Missouri University of Science and Technology

Overview Who are we Institutional Goals KPI’s (Key Performance Indicators) Benchmarks Enrollment Projections Assessment

1.Establish timeline with upper-level managers; on-going communication 2.Determine critical benchmarks & track progress towards goals at specific points in time 3.Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy 4.Build trend lines for key performance indicators 5.Refine models overtime Guidelines for forecasting enrollment

Know Your Profile

1. We’re one of America’s top technological research universities. 2. Our students get great jobs at great salaries. 3. Our students graduate with the ability to address real-world problems. 4. We’re one of America’s “30 safest campuses.” 5. S&T is one of the top 10 “best value” national public universities. A Top Technological Research University

A university with…  At least 25% of students studying engineering  A majority of students studying mathematics, engineering, science, business and computing  A robust graduate program  Strong research culture  Exceptional liberal arts, humanities and social science degree programs that complement the technological strengths of the university What is a “Technological Research University?”

Missouri S&T Michigan Tech Colorado Mines SD Mines New Mexico Mining & Tech Illinois Tech Cal Tech Florida Tech Georgia Tech Clarkson New Jersey Tech Stevens Tech MIT WPI Rensselaer America’s Technological Research Universities U of A - Huntsville

 Applied Math  Biological Sciences & Pre-Med  Business  Chemistry  Computer Science  Economics  English  Geology & Geophysics  History & Philosophy  Information Science & Technology  Physics  Psychology  Materials Science*  Technical Communication  Engineering: 1.Aerospace 2.Architectural 3.Ceramic 4.Chemical 5.Civil 6.Computer 7.Electrical 8.Engineering Management 9.Environmental 10.Explosives* 11.Geological 12.Manufacturing* 13.Mechanical 14.Metallurgical 15.Mining 16.Nuclear 17.Petroleum 18.Systems* Degree Programs +60 Degree Programs 34 BS/BA MBA/MST 29 MS/ME 20 PhD Learn More degrees.mst.edu *Masters degree only

Missouri S&T: 90% engineering, science and computing majors 19 th in Nation for Largest Undergraduate Engineering Enrollment 17 th in Nation for Number of Engineering Degrees Granted to African-Americans 19 th in Nation for Number of BS Engineering Degrees Granted

TOTAL Enrollment7,206  Undergraduate students 5,504  Graduate students1,702  New freshman class 1,170  New transfer class 388 Miners’ Fall 2010 Stats Breaking National Trends

Fall , Total Enrollment  48 states & 51 nations  70% Missouri residents  10% minority students  9% international students DC 1 4 Students’ Home States 1 2 Unofficial data until after 4 th week census

Enrollment diversity

International Student Enrollment

 Average Age: 21.6 years old  Gender:  23% Female  77% Male  First Generation College Students:  : 37%  Residency:  Missouri Residents: 76%  Out-State Students: 22%  International: 2%  Ethnicity:  African-American: 4%  Asian-American: 3%  Caucasian: 83%  Hispanic: 2%  Native-American: 1%  Non-resident, International: 2%  Not Disclosed: 5%  From a Community <40,000: 45% approx.  Average Family Income: $82,000  Average Indebtedness at Graduation:  $23,500 USD approx.  High Financial Need (Pell qualifier): 24%  Freshmen with Credit Cards:  24%  6 arrive with over $1000 USD standing balance  Students with PCs:  94%  +70% laptops  7% Macs  Students with Cell Phones  97% Undergraduate demographics and psychographics

35% increase in test senders with family incomes of $60,000+ SOURCE: ACT AIM, 2008

Demographics Can Impact Historical Models

1050 to 1150 students with the following profile: Academic Preparedness: 27 average ACT score (upper 10% in nation) 90% having completed the full Missouri college-prep curriculum 50% from the upper 20% of high school class Geography: 70% in-state 25% out-of-state 5% international Gender: 30% female 70% male Ethnicity: 13% under-represented minority students Majors: 70% Engineering (all programs) 5% Liberal Arts (psychology, history, English, technical communication, philosophy) 8% Business, Information Technology and Economics 9% Natural Sciences and Mathematics (biology, chemistry, physics) 8% Computer Science Success Rate:90% first to second year retention rate 80% return for third year 65-70% graduate in six years An ideal Missouri S&T freshman class

 The Midwest and Northeast will experience a 4% to 10% decline in high school graduates between 2009 – 2014 (WICHE)  The profile of college-bound students is rapidly becoming more ethnically diverse and female dominant (NCES, WICHE, ACT, College Board)  The number of students interested in engineering, computer science, and natural science degrees has declined to record lows (ACT, CIRP)  More full-time college freshmen are choosing to start at two-year colleges (IPED, MODHE)  More students are enrolling in more than one college at a time (National Student Clearinghouse)  Future student market growth will include more students requiring financial aid and loans to complete a degree (WICHE) Challenge: changes in the college-bound student markets

The Trends are Diverse: Regions within Regions

College-going rates, 2006

Some Trends that have not Changed: The Golden Circle for Recruitment +70% enroll within 140 miles of home +80% enroll in home state

Source: Chronicle of Higher Education Almanac Projected change in high school graduates > 20% +11% to +20% 0% to +10% Decreases

WICHE, 2008 National vs. regional trends

% change in Missouri population by county Source: USDA, Bureau of the Census Published by: University of Missouri Extension, April % % 0% - 4.9% 5% - 9.9% 10% % 20% - 39% Missouri Average = 5.6%

By 2012, Missouri will have 4,000 fewer HS graduates each year

 Establish timeline with upper-level managers; on- going communication  Determine critical benchmarks & track progress towards goals at specific points in time  Know where opportunities exist to adjust strategy  Build trend lines for key performance indicators  Refine models overtime Guidelines for forecasting enrollment

Basic Enrollment Funnel

 Goal setting tool based on previous performance and benchmarks  Tool for building enrollment budgets  Primary dashboard indicators for In-cycle assessments of recruitment progress and projecting enrollments  Tool to measure effectiveness of activities along the matriculation path  Ability to determine market share  Tool to better focusing communications and messaging How We Use the Funnel

How S&T Tracks Progress

Percent of ACT Tested College Freshmen Who Selected an Engineering Major

Missouri’s 2010 Student Funnel for All Engineering Fields  High School Seniors:74,681  High School Graduates:64,009  ACT Testers/College Bound: 48,290  Any Engineering Interest (all testers): 1,836  Any Engineering Interest, (+21 testers): 1,299 (21 = MO average score / 50%)  Engineering Interest, +24 comp. score: 969 (24 = UM minimum for auto admission)  Missouri S&T Freshmen Engineering Enrollees: 721 SOURCES: MODESE 2011, ACT EIS 2010, PeopleSoft

Domestic Overall Freshmen Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS Inquiries Applicants Admits Enrollees % Admits Enrolled 48% 51% 48% 49% 47% 47% % Inquiries Enrolled 10% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10%

Domestic Freshmen from Missouri Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS Inquiries Applicants Admits Enrollees % Admits Enrolled 69% 58.5% 54% 57% 54% 53% % Inquiries Enrolled 15% 15% 13% 13% 16% 15%

Domestic Freshmen Online Application Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS Applicants N/A Admits N/A Enrollees N/A % Admits Enrolled N/A 44.5% 45% 45% 45% 45%

Domestic Freshmen Paper Application Enrollment Yield Funnel FS2005-FS Applicants N/A Admits N/A Enrollees N/A % Admits Enrolled N/A 57% 52% 56% 52% 51%

FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries FS2010 First Time College Freshmen Funnel

FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries FS2010 First Time College Freshmen Funnel

FS2010 First Time College Missouri Freshmen FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries

FS2010 First Time College St. Louis Area Freshmen FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries

FS2010 First Time College Kansas City Area Freshmen FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries

FS2010 First Time College Chicago Area Freshmen FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries

FS2010 First Time College Dallas Area Freshmen FS2010 FTC Enrolled FS2010 FTC Admit FS2010 FTC Applicants FS2010 FTC Inquiries

13% (+375) increase in FAFSA submissions over AY09 25% (+641) increase in FAFAS submissions over AY07

Getting Started

Where to Begin? 1.Determine critical information needed and begin data collection Understand your student population and know your data 2. Verify data quality accurate, complete, shared definition & metrics 3. Identify key benchmarks points in time when data must be gathered and compared to build historical trends 4. Holistic approach to data management requires buy-in from “data managers” (create / manage data) 5. Build baseline year assess effectiveness and refine over time

 Factor analysis is a statistical method used to describe variability among observed variables in terms of a potentially lower number of unobserved variables called factors.  Factor analysis searches for joint variations in responses to unobserved latent variables.  The information gained about the interdependencies between observed variables can be used later to reduce the set of variables in a dataset. Factor Analysis Defined

1.Gender 2.Geographic Origin 3.Degree Program 4.Application Type 5.Academic Profile/Scholarship  ACT Composite Score  HS GPA  HS Class Rank 6.Overall/Combination Fall % accurate Adjusted Projection: 1,161 Opening Week: 1,171 4 th Week Census: 1,070 6 month projection for freshmen fall enrollment (1 of 7 best factors)

 Originated in psychometrics, and is used in behavioral sciences, social sciences, marketing, product management, operations research, and other applied sciences that deal with large quantities of data. Factor Analysis is Key

Enrollment Yields and Predictions by Gender and State Residency For First Time College (FTC) FS2007Admits as ofEnrolled%Enrolled FS05/FS06/FS 07Admits as ofEnrolled Ave%EnrolledFS2008Admits as ofFS08 Projected Yield 2/22/2007 2/21/2005 & 06 &07 FS05 & FS06 & FS072/21/2008(Admits X %Yield) FTC %FTC %FTC M %M %M F %F %F U2 U10 U MO %MO %MO IL %IL %IL22390 OOS %OOS %OOS Enrollment Yields and Predictions By Schools FS2007Admits as ofEnrolled%Yield FS05/FS06/FS 07Admits as ofEnrolled Ave% YieldFS2008Admits as ofFS08 Projected Yield 2/21/2007 2/21/2005 & 06 &07 FS05 & FS06 & FS072/21/2008(Admits X %Yield) CAS %CAS %CAS SOE %SOE %SOE SMIS %SMIS %SMIS3921 SOMEER %SOMEER %SOMEER Enrollment Yields and Predictions by Scholarships FS2007Admits as ofEnrolled%Yield FS05/FS06/FS 07Admits as ofEnrolled Ave% YieldFS2008Admits as ofFS08 Projected Yield 2/21/2007 2/21/2005 & 06 &07 FS05 & FS06 & FS072/21/2008(Admits X %Yield) No GO Scholarship % No GO Scholarship % No GO Scholarship N/A 100N/A **58% % % % % N/A 115N/A **58% % % N/A 125N/A **58% % % % % % % Ave:56.4%Ave: 58%1057 *Departmental Scholarships not included **Average % for 1st year scholar index Ave of 4 Projections for FS2008 Total:1049

Are Linear Models Accurate?  YES – if there are limited alterations in the variable factors (see the profile and demographics noted before).  Current S&T model has predicted the final fall freshman class enrollment within 2% since  Best to re-assess the factor analysis every 5 years.

Enrollment Projecting The Magic of Modeling and Deposits Rachel Morris Data & Reporting Coordinator Missouri University of Science and Technology