Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net My Favorite Investment Today Chloe Lutts Jensen, Moderator All Cabot Analysts.

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Presentation transcript:

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net My Favorite Investment Today Chloe Lutts Jensen, Moderator All Cabot Analysts

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Global X Top Guru Holdings “Famous managers’ most concentrated stock picks … tend to do better than (their) funds on the whole.” —Brendan Conway (Barron’s) Top hedge fund positions from 13-F filings Assets: $3.94 million Equal-weighted stock holdings Management fee: 0.75% July YTD 25.9% (vs 14.4% NYSE Comp) Positive alpha Robin Carpenter

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net GURU Moving Alpha

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Trinity Industries (TRN) Max Buy Price 39.54; Min Sell Price Current P/E is Dividend Yield is 1.3% Sales will rise 9% and EPS will climb 20% during the next 12 months Trinity has a huge backlog of orders for railcars Roy Ward

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Facebook (FB) All the Characteristics of a Big Winner Mass market No competition New opportunity (mobile) Accelerating sales EPS estimates, margins ramp Michael Cintolo

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Huge Blast Off = Accumulation

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Volatility as an Asset Class Options are Insurance Geico/Allstate = Options Sellers Selling Volatility on a broad equity index has a positive expected return premium over time, as the seller effectively provides insurance to the buyer of volatility. Jacob Mintz

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Over 20 years, the market has overpriced volatility by an average of 4.6 vol points Implied volatility has exceeded realized volatility 88% of the time since 1990

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net The Merrill Lynch vol/arb index enters into trades that monetize the difference between implied and realized volatility.

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Current Volatility Conditions Vix at 13 Realized 30 Day Volatility of SPX is 8 A premium of 5 points

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Baidu.com (BIDU) Paul Goodwin

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Tesla (TSLA) Timothy Lutts

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net TripAdvisor (TRIP)

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Issue Lots of great discoveries in medicine cannot reach their targets Tom Garrity

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Big Idea: Delivery of Medicine Because of medicine’s inability to rapidly cross extra-cellular matrix (ECM) into the lymphatic vasculature and capillary beds, they can't exert their therapeutic effects

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Halozyme (HALO) Patented enzymes allow drugs currently administered intravenously (IV) to be administered subcutaneously (SC) – Increased and faster absorption – Less frequently administered – Improved efficacy of existing therapies – Modify abnormal tissue

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Partnerships Milestones Payments plus Royalties Hoffmann-La Roche ($13.8 billion in 2012) Pfizer (Up to $570 million) Baxter Healthcare ($1.59 billion in 2012) ViroPharma Incorporated (Milestone Payments Plus 10% Royalties) Intrexon Corporation ($54 million Plus Royalties)

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net Halozyme Proprietary Endocrinology Oncology Dermatology

Cabot Investors Conference 2013www.cabot.net