September, Macro Program 1 – Embrapa National Challenge SCAF - Future Agriculture Scenario Simulation based on Regionalized Climate Change Projections Dr. Gregory Jones and Dr. Jorge Tonietto Visit

Firsts Future Agriculture Scenarios

Model(s) Input DataSimulation & Analysis Modeling/Simulation Process Climate Information: P, T, Water Def. Agrometorological Crop Database: Cycle and phenological phases Culture Coef. (Kc) Phenological critical phase Soil Water Retention Root Zone Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption Planting Date Definition based on: Integraion indexes WRSI = ETR/ETM Rain excess probability on harvest Water Deficit High Temperatures Low Temperatures Climate Information: P, T, Water Def. Agrometorological Crop Database: Cycle and phenological phases Culture Coef. (Kc) Phenological critical phase Soil Water Retention Root Zone Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption

IPCC 2001IPCC 2007

Planting Date Definition based on: Integraion indexes WRSI = ETR/ETM Rain excess probability on harvest Water Deficit High Temperatures Low Temperatures Model(s) Input DataSimulation & Analysis Climate Information: P (+5%, +10%, +15%), T (+1°C, +3°C, +5,8°C) Water Def. Agrometorological Crop Database: Cycle and phenological phases Culture Coef. (Kc) Phenological critical phase Soil Water Retention Root Zone Definition of cutting criteria by culture, in terms of water consumption Modeling/Simulation Process

Soybean

Solo 50mm – 1 a 10 de Novembro

Coffee

Current

Actuation FrontierProject Interactions Climate Changes – IPCC Scenarios Environmental Condition Monitoring: - trend evolution - basin water balance - land use change - droughts and floods - agro & forest burning - desertification Trend Analysis: T, P, extreme events Crop / Animal Pests & Mutualists Decease & e Symbionts Soil Standard Development Under T increase Under [CO 2 ] increase Under P increase Under P decrease Agro/Forest System Modeling (parameterization e simulation) Productive Systems Products & Residue Processem. C/CO 2 Eq Balance Agro/Forest Scenarios Definition Founding form C Market & Environmental Services; Technology Transfer & Public Policy Mitigation: - product. syst. change and crop substit. - C stock on Flor./Soil/Agr - deforestation and burn reduction - altern. energy and biofuel. Risk and Sustainability Analysis - Social, Economic & Environment MeteorDB Agrogases Agroenergy Plat. Adaptation: - new product systems - biotechnology - - genetic melioration (T, drought and flood resist. varieties) - -genomic - - nanoseq - - gene prosp. - - new technol. - new public policy Soil DB Program on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects Proposals

What has been proposed? SCAF - Future Agriculture Scenario Simulation based on Regionalized Climate Change Projections Execution time: 4 years (2009 – 2012) Leader: CNPTIA - Giampaolo Queiroz Pellegrino Team: >100 researchers, ~ 30 different Embrapa units, > 10 other Brazilian research institutions

Field Experiments Growth Chamber FACE Integrating production and pest/diseases modeling Simulation process Forms of disclosure: uncertainty / probability Economic Analysis How can we advance? Data from Global and Regional Circulation Models and "Downscaling“: RegCM3, Price, ETA; ~ 10 IPCC models; + Brazilian Model (20km) Statistical simulation of the near future climate scenario based on historical data. Data quality. Temporal scale: daily, decendial, monthly... Stochastic Modeling Production Modeling Process Modeling including physiological processes: photosynthesis and respiration Physiological Processes: Effect of T / fertilization by CO 2 Technological Advancement: Genetics / production techniques Input Data ModelsSimulation/Analysis

Project MP1 - SCAF Hypothesis The main hypothesis on this project is that climate change impacts on the main Brazilian crops are going to induce new agriculture, forest & livestock future scenarios. These future scenarios will configure a new production matrix and geography and will affect national economy, being possible to analyze and quantify them by using simulation techniques, fed by regional and global climate change scenarios, and economic analysis methods to reach productive matrix optimization.

Project MP1 - SCAF Technical-Scientific Questions To test this hypothesis, we pose some technical-scientific questions: 1.How to regionalize, or downscale, global climate change projections to increase spatial and temporal agriculture scenario resolution? 2.Extreme event frequency increase is already detectable over the Brazilian different regions? How to include this trend on future agriculture scenario simulation? 3.What are the changes on Brazilian crop physiology induced by CO2 concentration and temperature increase? How to consider these changes on crop modeling and scenarios simulation? 4.How to estimate and consider the technological advancements on crop modeling and scenarios simulation? 5.Which are the better computational tools and information technology to simulate and publish resultant scenarios over the web? 6.Based on each future agriculture scenarios which productive matrix will be more likely to happen and what would be its economic impact on Brazilian economy?

Project MP1 - SCAF General Objective Assess and quantify the impacts caused by global climate change on the major economic crop in Brazil, by means of future agricultural scenarios simulation based on projections of future regionalized climate scenarios, indicating strategic guidelines for the new productive configuration.

Project MP1 - SCAF Specific Objectives: - To detect trends of climate change using global and regional circulation models and stochastic models to determine future climate scenarios. - To develop projection technology and simulation models to assess the impacts of global climate change on the main crops of grain, industrial, fruit, fodder and forest in Brazil. - To quantify the economic impact of likely changes in agricultural scenarios as a function of the climate change scenarios regionally adapted to Brazilian conditions, defining optimized crop configuration for sustainable production to face the global climate changes. - To analyze, develop and operate high-performance computing platform for integration of climate scenarios and crop models for the simulation of future agricultural scenarios to be generated

President (Project Leader) Vice-President (Project Vice-Leader) Internal Community Representatives (Component Project Leaders) External Community Representatives (University, Research, Government) MANAGER COMMITTEE

CP7 – FASc Pasture / Fodder ( Brach. brizanta, Panicum, Cenchrus, Lulium e fodder cactus) CP6 – FASc Forest Trees( Pinus, Eucalyptus, Mimosa scabrella Acacia mernsii, Schyzolobium amazonicum, Sclerolobium paniculatum, Tectona grandis, Heveabrasiliensis and Araucaria)CP5 – FASc Fruits(peach, apple, pear, grapes,banana, mango e coconut) CP4–FASc Industrial crops( castor bean, cotton, sunflower, cassava, sugarcane, orange) CP3 – FASc Grains( soybean, wheat, corn, sorghum, rice & bean ) CP1 – Network management (Project execution and infra-structure) CP2 – Trend analysis CP8 – Economic Analysis of Future Agricultural Scenarios CP9 – Information Technology for Database and Simulation Crops been simulated on two other projects: GOF Embaixada Britânica and Petrobrás CP – Component Project (Action Plan) FASc – Future Agricultural Scenarios

Component Projects – Action Plans CP1 - Management: Technical and administrative management; and strategic management (interaction with University, Research, Government, Funding Agencies) CP8 - Economy: organization / management of economic information; economic analysis of the current productive matrix; and an economic analysis of future scenarios and expansion trends. CP9 - Information Technology: Solution for high performance computing simulation; modeling of BD; and Development of Simulator.

Activities of Component Projects for Crops

Actuation FrontierProject Interactions Climate Changes – IPCC Scenarios Environmental Condition Monitoring: - trend evolution - basin water balance - land use change - droughts and floods - agro & forest burning - desertification Trend Analysis: T, P, extreme events Crop / Animal Pests & Mutualists Decease & e Symbionts Soil Standard Development Under T increase Under [CO 2 ] increase Under P increase Under P decrease Agro/Forest System Modeling (parameterization e simulation) Productive Systems Products & Residue Processem. C/CO 2 Eq Balance Agro/Forest Scenarios Definition Founding form C Market & Environmental Services; Technology Transfer & Public Policy Mitigation: - product. syst. change and crop substit. - C stock on Flor./Soil/Agr - deforestation and burn reduction - altern. energy and biofuel. Risk and Sustainability Analysis - Social, Economic & Environment MeteorDB Agrogases Agroenergy Plat. Adaptation: - new product systems - biotechnology - - genetic melioration (T, drought and flood resist. varieties) - -genomic - - nanoseq - - gene prosp. - - new technol. - new public policy Soil DB Program on Climate Change and Tropical Agriculture – New Projects Proposals

Thanks for your attention!