Transatlantic Dialogue on Climate Change Innovation Drivers by Kevin Fay Executive Director International Climate Change Partnership November 20, 2004 Villa Vigoni, Loveno di Menaggio 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Principle Industrial Drivers for Innovation Governmental Policy Market Response to Supply and Demand Consumer Demand 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

U.S. Federal Legislative Policy Comprehensive Energy legislation Energy tax initiatives Clear Skies legislation Carbon cap and trade legislation 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Federal Regulatory Policy Registry issues 1605b Mercury rules New Source Review rules Methane to markets 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Individual State Actions Northeast (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) California: Hydrogen Highway and Carbon reduction on autos Southwest Govs Coalition and renewable mandates at the state level 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

The global energy picture Increased prices for oil, gas Increased demand Secure supplies? 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Projected U.S. Growth Rates 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703) Source: U.S Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Projected U.S. Electric Growth 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703) Source: Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2002, Department of Energy

Significant Improvements in Existing and Development of New Technologies Are Required to Stabilize Concentrations 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703) Source: Edmonds, J.A. and G.M. Stokes Launching a Technology Revolution, in Climate Policy for the 21 st Century: Meeting the Long-Term Challenge of Global Warming, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

Industrial Response Coal vs. Gas Nuclear comeback LNG Technology vs. fuel switch 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Access and Supply NIMBY (Pipelines and Terminals) New exploration horizons and regions 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Consumer Demands Clean vs. Dirty Cost of operation Reliability Availability 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Future Business Issues for Attention Be engaged in all various global efforts Maintain ability to capture early actions regardless of regime Enhance the opportunities for global trading system 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Macro Points to Monitor Assure that changes in demand will be supported by supplies and infrastructure That regulatory actions provide certainty and clarity for investment returns Flexibility in the ability to meet future targets 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Wheres the Big Bang? Utilities Transportation 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Global GHG Emissions Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703) Source:

U.S. Carbon Emissions by Sector 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703) Source: U.S Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Technological Breakthroughs Will Save Trillions of Dollars While Stabilizing Concentrations 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703) Source: Edmonds, J.A. and G.M. Stokes Launching a Technology Revolution, in Climate Policy for the 21 st Century: Meeting the Long-Term Challenge of Global Warming, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

Developing Carbon Capture and Sequestration Technologies Can Save Hundreds of Billions of Dollars 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703) Source: Edmonds, J.A. and G.M. Stokes Launching a Technology Revolution, in Climate Policy for the 21 st Century: Meeting the Long-Term Challenge of Global Warming, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.

Improvements in Energy Intensity Achieve Significant Emission Reductions 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703) Source: Edmonds, Jae, Presentation to the Annual Meeting of the Global Energy Technology Strategy Project.

Conclusion We need a quantum leap vs. an incremental gain We need to provide markets to step forward and provide most of these developments We need business and government to work across all of the political time zones 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)