Climate Change: The Need for a Long-Term Objective for Sustainable Climate Policy by Kevin Fay Executive Director International Climate Change Partnership COP 10 - Side Event December 15, 2004 Buenos Aires, Argentina 2111 Wilson Blvd, 8th Floor, Arlington, VA Phone: (703) Fax: (703)

Scientific Consensus IPCC provides consensus on basics of climate change science Range of temperature change and sea level rise Other potential effects more speculative, regional Continuous assessment required, uncertainties remain

Rapid Climate Policy Developments Climate issue first discussed mid 1980s 3 IPCC Assessment Reports, 4 th in progress INCCC – 1990 UNFCCC, Rio Earth Summit – 1992 Berlin Mandate – 1993 Kyoto Protocol – 1997 Current Accession or Ratification UNFCCC – 188 countries Kyoto Protocol – 130 countries, 61.6% of Annex I emissions

Policy Consensus All major emitting nations have ratified UNFCCC Commit to taking emissions reductions Commit to support stabilization of concentrations to prevent dangerous anthropogenic modification of the climate No definition of dangerous Acknowledges principal of differentiation for developing countries

Significant Progress Scope of Progress significant given complexity of issue Kyoto Protocol raises significant economic, environmental and equity concerns Transformation to economically efficient market based approach, path forward Difficult policy matters take time Challenging without Long Term Objective

Climate Protection Undefined Planet has seen high CO2 concentrations previously Rate of change – reaching concentration in 200 years not seen for 50 million years Slowing rate of change – insurance Recognize atmosphere as shared natural resource Current policy too short term, punitive

Source: IPCC Summary for Policymakers of the 3rd Assessment Report, 2001

Long Term Objective Goal Driven Society Lack of LTO gives policymakers no frame of reference Revolutionary Technology shift required to move from business as usual, particularly in transportation and electricity generation LTO necessary to stimulate revolutionary technology shift while allowing for evolutionary development and progress among all countries Provide milestones to measure progress

Sustainable Climate Policy Engage all nations, developed and developing Recognize that available capital to invest in this effort is a finite resource and therefore must be invested efficiently Remove the immediate economic threat to private- sector and national political interests Recognize the investment life cycle within individual industries and their interrelation across sectors

Sustainable Climate Policy Avoid premature retirement of capital stock Include all significant sources of these gases, including newly industrialized countries Provide policymakers and corporate executives with a uniform indication of where the process is expected to go

Montreal Protocol Successful Global Atmospheric Protection Effort Issue Identified – 1974 Treaty First Signed – 1987 Science Driven Urgency – Antarctic Ozone Hole, Skin Cancer LTO Established – Return atmosphere to 2ppb chlorine Continuous Scientific, Technology and Economic Assessment Differentiation of Developing Country Response

Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine Estimates of future EESC based on the baseline scenario (Ab, solid line), the maximum scenario (Am, longdashed line), and the hypothetical cases of zero emissions in 2003 and thereafter (E0) and zero production in 2003 an thereafter (P0) of all anthropogenic ODSs. Also shown are results from the scenario with continued ODS production in the future at 1999 rates (Pc), production that is substantially larger than allowed in the fully revised and amended Montreal Protocol.

Montreal Protocol Long Term Goal Not formal part of the treaty Basis for assessment of policy adjustments Allowed for interim technology flexibility Assures greater economic efficiency Continuous measure of accomplishment

Voluntary vs. Mandatory Approach Voluntary Can Produce Significant Results Difficult to Maintain Focus When Competing for Scarce Resources -- Capital Makes Free-rider Problem Worse

Voluntary vs. Mandatory Approach Mandatory Can Cause Significant Economic Dislocation Can Guess Wrong Can Stifle Revolutionary Technology Change

Significant Technology Achievements Space Race Arms Race Information Race All required significant technological challenges, but more than short-term focus.

Sustainable Development Key investment in Next 2-3 decades Atmosphere as a natural resource All countries must be involved Assistance necessary for Developing Countries

Largest Investment in Developing Countries Significant Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries Foreign Direct Investment Development Banks Export Credits

Sustainable Policy Challenges Water 1 billion people without access to fresh water Energy 2 billion people without access to reliable electricity Now addressed as part of WSSD Plan of Implementation, Millennium Goals, Agenda 21 Climate Protection

Path Forward Identify top Emitters – Developed and Developing Establish LTO Identify Milestones Define Revolutionary Technology Challenge Compare Against Scientific Findings

Path Forward Continuous Assessment of Progress against LTO Evolutionary Technology Progress Revolutionary Technology Change Dialogue to Reinforce Political Will

Key Elements of Sustainable Development and Interconnections Source: IPCC Summary for Policymakers of the 3rd Assessment Report, 2001