Stakeholder-driven, multi-sectoral climate adaptation in small urban areas ASP Colloquium - 6 th August 2014, Boulder Amanda Edelman, Pardee RAND Graduate School Alex Libardoni, Penn State University Maria Pregnolato, University of Newcastle Derek Rosendahl, University of Oklahoma Katrin Sedlmeier, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Julie Shortridge, Johns Hopkins University Heather Yocum, University of Colorado and NOAA

Outline Overview Introduction Impact Assessment Climate analysis Evaluation Conclusion Motivation Research plan Challenges Research questions Approach Outcomes Objectives Approach Outcomes Overview Research questions

Objective To develop an integrated framework that will support stakeholder driven climate adaptation plans for urban areas Research Question Does using an iterative, stakeholder-driven approach improve outcomes such as consensus, generation of alternatives and social learning? OVERVIEW IMPACT CLIMATEEVALUATIONCONCLUSION INTRODUCTION

Stakeholder Ongoing engagement with climate scientists throughout the tool development process Impact Assessment Integration of differing levels of adaptive capacity and resilience within the population response to climate change events OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION Motivation Research Plan IMPACT CLIMATECONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Research Plan Framework OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION Motivation Research Plan IMPACT CLIMATECONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Research Timeline OVERVIEW INTRODUCTION Motivation Research Plan IMPACT CLIMATECONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Challenges - Many infrastructure systems already very sensitive to climate today - Infrastructure impacts analysis: -Evaluation of physical disruptions without consideration of -How do these disruptions impact human wellbeing? -How do people respond? Adaptive capacity? -Impacts are uncertain – but so are the consequences and ability to respond IMPACT CLIMATE ChallengesOutcomes Approach OVERVIEWINTRODUCTION Research questions CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Research questions 1.Are extreme climatic conditions associated with a measurable increase in infrastructure disruptions, negative public health outcomes and economic losses that cannot be captured by considering mean climatic conditions alone? 2.Does combination of survey-based measurements of exposure and adaptive capacity improve estimates of health and economic outcomes relative to the use of physical measurements alone? IMPACT CLIMATE Outcomes Approach OVERVIEWINTRODUCTION Research questionsChallenges CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

IMPACT Outcomes Approach OVERVIEWINTRODUCTION 1. Empirical evaluation to relate climate extremes, infrastructure outages and community impact Independent variables related to climate events, for example: – 24-hour precipitation above some threshold – 7-day average maximum temperature Example response variables related to – Physical infrastructure outages (water, power, transport): Percent of system concurrently out of service, outage duration – Economic losses: insurance claims, school closures – Public health outcomes: all-cause mortality, 911 calls, hospital visits CLIMATECONCLUSIONEVALUATION Research questionsChallenges

2. Assessment of exposure/adaptive capacity Survey-based evaluation of – Exposure: what are the major physical stressors related to climate extremes and infrastructure disruptions that the household has faced in the past five years? – Adaptive capacity: How did the household respond when faced with these physical stressors, and what encouraged or limited the degree of response? Census data: Age, education, employment, etc. Neighborhood-level indicators of exposure, adaptive capacity, and resilience IMPACT Outcomes (Romero-Lankao et al., 2014) OVERVIEWINTRODUCTION Approach CLIMATECONCLUSIONEVALUATION Research questionsChallenges

Outcomes Identification of climate conditions and physical stressors (such as infrastructure disruptions) that cause greatest impacts in city Relation of physical exposure to impacts on human health and economic wellbeing Geographically-specific information on exposure and adaptive capacity across city IMPACT OVERVIEWINTRODUCTION Outcomes CLIMATECONCLUSIONEVALUATION ApproachResearch questionsChallenges

Objectives Identify changes in relevant climate variables to support adaptation planning in urban areas Address associated uncertainties – Future emissions – Model structure – Internal Variability CLIMATE ObjectivesOutcomesApproach IMPACT OVERVIEWINTRODUCTIONCONCLUSIONEVALUATION

CLIMATE ObjectivesOutcomesApproach IMPACT OVERVIEWINTRODUCTIONCONCLUSIONEVALUATION Climate projections Statistically downscaled CMIP 5 data products Testing of different statistical downscaling methods for downscaling of NARCCAP Ensemble data (Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011)

CLIMATE ObjectivesOutcomesApproach IMPACT OVERVIEWINTRODUCTIONCONCLUSIONEVALUATION Assessment of hazardous events Interaction with impact modelers Assessment of projected changes in occurrence of the relevant climate variables and extremes Develop methods for description of multivariate extremes/return periods Estimation of uncertainties by using ensembles of climate simulations

CLIMATE ObjectivesOutcomesApproach IMPACT OVERVIEWINTRODUCTIONCONCLUSIONEVALUATION Outcomes Projected changes of hazardous events relevant for infrastructure Tools (e.g. risk maps) that combine climate change and impact studies (together with impact modelers) Estimation of uncertainties by using ensembles of climate simulations Workshops for stakeholders to explain climate results

Tool Examples IMPACT Outcomes OVERVIEWINTRODUCTION CLIMATE CONCLUSIONEVALUATION

Evaluation Outcomes (1) consensus-building (2) generation of alternatives (3) social learning Interviews and surveys – Before, during, and after process Participant observation – During workshops and meetings EVALUATION CONCLUSION OverviewResearch Questions IMPACT CLIMATEOVERVIEWINTRODUCTION

EVALUATION CONCLUSION IMPACT CLIMATEOVERVIEWINTRODUCTION Outcomes: (1) consensus-building; (2) generation of alternatives; (3) social learning Overview Research Questions Questions to Guide Evaluation 1.Does this process increase connectivity amongst actors or deepen existing connections? (Outcomes 1 and 3) 2.How does this interaction impact the production of climate information? Does it change workshop participants’ perceptions of uncertainty and climate information? (Outcomes 2 and 3) 3. Does this approach succeed in bringing under-served or under- represented stakeholders into the decision-making processes? (Outcomes 1 and 3) 4. How does the inclusion (or exclusion) of these groups affect impact modeling, tool design and the generation of adaptation options? (Outcome 2)

Conclusion Cities are aware of the need to: – Adapt to climate change and extremes – Involve stakeholders in this process How to do this – still unclear This project will create – a framework for stakeholder-driven adaptation – Insights into the benefits and challenges of taking this approach EVALUATION CONCLUSION IMPACT CLIMATEOVERVIEWINTRODUCTION

…thank you.