Ohio Punch Cards a brief overview Punch cards were used by 72% of 2004 Ohio voters, over 4,000,000 voters Ohio 2004 Presidential Election Cuyahoga County.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Badnarik, Bush, Kerry, Disqualified, or Peroutka OHIO 2004 Punch Card Voting.

Advertisements

Discrete Probability Rosen 5.1.

Poll Observer Goals, Requirements, Privileges and Responsibilities.

Voting and Elections CP Political Systems.

Chapter 8b Sample size for an interval estimate of a population mean.

What’s Wrong With the Election System? David Kimball University of Missouri-St. Louis December 5, 2002.

Registration Must register at least 25 days before the election You can register by mail, or at post offices, DMVs, libraries, and schools Must submit.

The Electoral College Political Science Module Developed by PQE

Strong Two Party Politics in the Industrial Heartland.

The new FDR Wheelchair Statue at the FDR Memorial in Washington, DC.

Turnout Theory. Why do people vote? How can parties, groups, and candidate campaigns encourage people to vote who might not otherwise vote?

Voting and Elections Dennis & Patten Participation in Government Mepham High School.

Learning Target: Understanding voter demographics/ who votes in elections Which party would a businessman from Texas support? Which party would a wealthy.

ELECTIONS 1992 through 2012 ©2012, TESCCC U.S. History Unit 13, Lesson 2.

BATTLEGROUND Presidential Tracking Fall 2004 Tracking/ N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E. If the election for President were held today,

Voting “The World is run by people who show up.”.

Voting and Elections 3 November, What’s at Stake Presidency House of Representatives All 435 seats Democrats currently have a 15 seat majority (233.

Organization of Political Parties. How does it all fit together? Citizenship Naturalization Political Parties Third parties Lobbyists, PACs, Interest.

 Article II Section I established the Electoral College  Each state choose electors according to a method the state legislatures set up and each state.

Presidential and Congressional Elections November 12, 2007.

Section Outline 1 of 8 Voting and Elections Section 1: Being a Voter I.General Elections II.The Basics of Voting III.Becoming an Informed Voter Color Transparency:

VOTING IN AMERICA. REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT? VOTING.

What is the easiest way for citizens to influence the government?

Some Empirical Evidence on Provisional Voting Prepared for the Presidential Commission on Election Administration Daron Shaw University of Texas at Austin.

1 Political Geography of the 2005 Special Election Mark Baldassare Public Policy Institute of California.

Voting and Elections 28 October, Voter Turnout Voter turnout is highest for presidential elections; in “midterm elections” only a third of the electorate.

The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes © 2007 by James Q. Jacobs. All Rights Reserved.

THE POLL May 1-3, 2000 / N=1,000 Registered “Likely”Voters / ±3.1% M.O.E. #8263 THE POLL.

WHO CAN VOTE?. VOTING RIGHTS DENIED Voting in America has changed dramatically since the birth of our nation. Initially, many groups were denied that.

Warm Up In the Voting Rights Act of 1965, when certain state required preclearance, what needed to happen before a state could change its voting laws?

6/8/ The Electoral College. True or False? 6/8/ The candidate with the most votes is elected president. Answer: Not necessarily. Ask Al Gore.

Political Parties and Interest Groups 1. Define a political party? 2. What three kinds of party systems are used? 3. Name the two major parties in the.

Polling Places -Polling Places -precinct based -Usually in schools, town halls, public places -open early and close late.

Politics & Government Session 11 April 28, Federal Elections Senators & Representatives elected by plurality vote – the candidate winning the most.

WHAT METHODS ARE USED TO CHOSE CANDIDATES FOR PUBLIC OFFICE? The nominating process is the process of candidate selection. Nomination – the naming of those.

Audit of Provisional Ballots 2012 Presidential Election Presented by: Gerald Micciulla, CPA, CFE Deputy City Controller.

Political Parties and Interest Groups

Overview and Information

The Fall Campaign October 22, 2015

Political Parties – Lesson 2

Election Fundamentals

BATTLEGROUND Presidential Tracking 2004

The Electoral College Political Science Module Developed by PQE

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Voting and Elections.

The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis

The Electoral College Political Science Module Developed by PQE

Missed the voter registration deadline?

“Who Can Vote?”.

The Electoral College Political Science Module Developed by PQE

Vote if you are in line by 7:00 p.m. when the polls close

Missed the voter registration deadline?

August 30, 2018 Have your HLA on your desk, ready to turn in.

Missed the voter registration deadline?

What is the easiest way for citizens to influence the government?

Approval Voting.

October 25, 2018 Modern Issues in the U.S. Agenda:

Voting and Elections.

“Who Can Vote?”.

The Electoral College Political Science Module Developed by PQE

Twenty Years of the FIU Cuba Poll

Chapter 5: Political Parties Section 4

CE 5e Chapter 10 Section 1 Mr. Collins and Mrs. Kozlik

Political Parties and Interest Groups

Elections Essential Question: What are the ways that citizens can influence government?

“Who Can Vote?”.

Presentation transcript:

Ohio Punch Cards a brief overview Punch cards were used by 72% of 2004 Ohio voters, over 4,000,000 voters Ohio 2004 Presidential Election Cuyahoga County Analysis

CROSS-VOTING: Moving ballots to the wrong precinct after voting OR voting at the wrong precinct can alter the vote. Unlike Florida, Ohio rotated the candidate order.

Cross-Voting. An egregious location. At the two Benedictine High School precincts, about 379 Kerry votes and 10 Bush votes counted for third-party candidates when voters punched their ballots at the wrong precincts. bBKdpbBKdp KdpbBKdpbB

Vote-Switching? Researchers asked: How many Kerry and Bush votes were switched? and To whose advantage? One major candidate cross- vote changes the election margin by two votes, i.e., - K AND + B - K d P b B + B K d P b

Locations with Multiple Ballot Orders Over 525,000 Cuyahoga Votes Seven-eights of votes in Cuyahoga County more than one of every eight Ohio Kerry voters could have been cast at an adjacent precinct using the wrong ballot order.

At locations where Kerry cross-votes only count for: Badnarik his votes increase five-fold Peroutka his votes increase eight-fold T hird-party voting increased over one percent.

Major candidate switched-votes 'count' twice! adding one and subtracting one i.e., - K AND + B If over one percent of Ohio Kerry votes incorrectly counted for Bush, the election outcome changed.

Kerry support correlates with the percentage of non-votes. Precincts with greater than 3.6 % non-voting average 10% Bush support. KdPbBKdPbB BKdPbBKdPb ?

In a subset of 166,953 votes, one of every 34 Ohio voters, the Kerry-Bush margin shifts 6.15% when the population is sorted by the probable outcomes of cross-voting.

Badnarik, Bush, Kerry, Disqualified, or Peroutka OHIO 2004 Punch Card Voting

bBKdpbBKdp KdPbBKdPbB BKdPbBKdPb pbBKdpbBKd dpbBKdpbBK Five Precincts with Five Kerry Votes.

bBKdpbBKdp KdPbBKdPbB BKdPbBKdPb pbBKdpbBKd dpbBKdpbBK Move Each Ballot to the Adjacent Precinct.

bBKdpbBKdp KdPbBKdPbB BKdPbBKdPb pbBKdpbBKd dpbBKdpbBK And Five Kerry Votes Become Five Bush Votes.

Assuming the vote was Kerry = 50 Bush = 50 Total = 100 Switching 5 % of the votes Kerry 50 – 5 = 45 Bush = 55 Bush Margin = 10 Changes the margin by 10 %

The probability of Kerry-Bush vote-switching is highest where Kerry support is highest. Organization of ballot order combinations favored Kerry-Bush vote-switching. Every switched-vote 'counts' twice! i.e., - K AND + B

Other Issues: Numerous voters were dropped from voter registration rolls. 92,720 ballots in Ohio did not register a vote for President. Officials in Ohio rejected about 150,000 provisional ballots. Lines at the polls deterred an unknown number of voters. Article: The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes jqjacobs.net/politics/ohio.html ©2008 by James Q. Jacobs The 2004 Ohio Presidential Election: Cuyahoga County Analysis How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes Next PowerPoint: How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes How Kerry Votes Were Switched to Bush Votes