Focal regions are circles of diameter 50km

Region 1: California Oregon Border Region 1: cells, with average 43.8 host units Hosts fairly heterogeneous Hazard heterogenous (due to host heterogeneity) Furthest away from current infection front…50% chance of invasion by 2017 Noticeable proportion infected by 2020; about 50% cells infected by 2030 on average

Region 2: Humboldt Region 2: cells, with average 52.5 host units Hosts homogeneous Hazard heterogenous (due to weather variability) At Humboldt county focus….50% chance of single invasion by 2012 Noticeable proportion infected by 2020; about 70% cells infected by 2030 on average This region has the highest risk of all regions (lots of hosts and getting there soon)

Region 3: 2007 Detection front Region 3: cells, with average 48.0 host units Hosts somewhat heterogeneous, with a few isolated small patches of high host Hazard heterogeneous (picking out some of these regions) Much lower hazard than regions 1 & 2 (weather driven) At 2007 infection front 50% chance of single invasion by 2008 Noticeable proportion infected by 2020; about 70% cells infected by 2030 on average

Region 4: Sierra Nevada Region 4: cells, with average 10.1 host units Hosts heterogeneous, with band of host through middle Hazard heterogeneous (picking out these regions) Much lower hazard than regions 3 and esp 1 & 2 (host + weather driven) 50% chance of single invasion by 2019; however little chance of no infection by 2030 Invasions do not lead to much bulking up…level of infection not noticable even by 2030 (av 20 cells infected)

Region 5: South of Big Sur Region 5: cells, with average 8.9 host units Most cells have few/no hosts, with diagonal band of middling amount of host E -> S Similar hazard profile to region 4; again lower than 3 and esp 1 and 2 50% chance of single invasion by 2018; again little chance of no infection by 2030 Very little bulking up after invasion Invasions do not lead to much bulking up…level of infection not noticable even by 2030 (av 24 cells infected)

Region 6: Further South of Big Sur So little is going on here, I propose that we just ignore it