Bolivia Political Situation as of January 16

Recap Bolivia is one of South America’s poorest countries despite rich mineral and energy resources Wealthy urban elites (mostly Spanish ancestry) dominate political and economic life 2nd largest reserve of natural gas in South America Indigenous groups say the country should not relinquish control of the reserves, which they claim is Bolivia’s only remaining resource In 2006, President Morales put energy industry under state control, rich elite are not happy with this New constitution which will give more power to indigenous majority will be voted on on the 25th

Timeline National Referendum will decide weather to make official the Bolivian Constitution which was ratified in Congress on October 21 Jan 25 Venezuela, Bolivia cut ties with Israel over Gaza Jan 14 Bolivia breaks Israel ties, claims Gaza ‘genocide’ Jan 14 Venezuela’s Chavez investigates US official Jan 10 Brazil to boost slumping Bolivian gas imports Jan 9 Brazil slashes Bolivian gas imports amid dispute Jan 9 Chavez hopes Gaza situation improves under Obama Jan 7 Brazil buying 30 pct. Less Bolivian natural gas Jan 7 Falling crude prices squeeze Chavez oil diplomacy Jan 6 Morales says Bolivia to launch state newspaper Jan 4 Bolivian president creates 6th state-run company Dec. 31 Bolivia acknowledges some illegal coca use Dec 27

Bolivia official reports plot to kill president Dec. 22 A top Bolivian official says conservatives have plotted to pay one of President Evo Morales' peasant supporters to kill him.Government Minister Alfredo Rada says "extreme right" elements hoped to take advantage of Morales' frequent visits to rural areas, where the socialist leader is often swarmed by large crowds of admirers under only minimal security. Morales Admits Illegal cocoa use Dec 27 President Evo Morales acknowledged on Saturday for the first time in his nearly three years in office that a portion of coca produced in Bolivia is used to make cocaine. Morales, who remains the top leader of the South American country's coca-producing unions, also said that his government is aware that some farmers in the central coca- producing region of Chapare are violating a law that limits each family to producing 1,962 square yards (1,640 square meters) of coca for medicine and food. Brazil to Increase Bolivian Gas Imports Jan 9 BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) -- Energy Minister Edison Lobao announced Friday that Brazil would increase natural gas imports from Bolivia, reversing course on plans to economize on natural gas while cheap hydroelectric power is available from swollen rivers and reservoirs. President Evo Morales nationalized Bolivia's energy industry in 2006, requiring foreign oil companies including Petroleo Brasileiro to forfeit majority stakes they bought in Bolivian oil and gas fields and refineries. *AP

“Pelea Electoral en las Plazas” January 16 “Battle” between supporters of voting YES on the constitution and supporters of voting NO Throughout this week, militants of both groups swapped insults in la plaza Murillo de La Paz The police had to interfere to break up fights The leaders of the NO campaign were escorted from the plaza by police The confrontation started as a political discussion and debate of ideas, but in the end, intolerance won out and the insults and fighting began

Travel Advice Exercise caution and avoid large crowds Continual risk of public protests and strikes throughout Bolivia. –Major roads can be blocked and public transport disrupted at very short notice There is a risk that the main road between Chile and Bolivia may be blockaded at short notice Road travel can be dangerous as a result of poor road conditions, local driving techniques, and the condition of vehicles on the road. Heavy rains have meant that some roads have been washed away. Risk of “express kidnappings.” Exercise caution when arriving in, and traveling around, Bolivia and be aware of the general risk of crime for visitors. Dengue Fever has been reported in the regions of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, and Cochabamba. Travelers should take extra precautions against mosquitoes

Bolivia Referendum Update 2/1/09 “Here we begin to reach true equality for all Bolivians” – Evo Morales

Constitutional Referendum Passes On January 25 th, the constitution giving more power to Bolivia’s indigenous (majority) population passed peacefully 62%-38%. Low support in Bolivia’s lowland, affluent East (not where we are going) “leaves country as divided as ever”.

Provisions: “Decolonize” Bolivia Creates new seats in Congress reserved for smaller minority groups. Eliminates any mention of the Roman Catholic Church Calls for general election in December in which Morales could run for a second consecutive five year term. The old constitution allowed for multiple terms, though not served consecutively. Grants autonomy to 36 indigenous “nations” and several opposition controlled states in the East. Limits land holdings to 5,000 hectares with an eye toward redistribution of territory. New York Times

Opposition Opposition leaders believe it does not adequately represent Bolivia’s growing urban population, characterized as a juxtaposition of Indian tradition (and blood) with a new Western identity. Oppose greater state control of economy. Seen almost as a setback for Morales after 67 percent polled support in August. Indeed, 5 of 9 states rejected the constitution foreshadowing future political battles over the vague description of the eastern autonomies. “We’re asking the government to listen to (the eastern states) for the first time, and to govern for all”. New York Times

Bolivia-U.S. Relations Morales evicted Bolivia’s U.S. ambassador and Drug Enforcement Agents in 2008 stating they had conspired against his government and sided with the richer opposition. After the Constitutional referendum passed, Morales has stated that he hopes to rebuild strained U.S. relations and exchange ambassadors with the Obama administration soon. Bolivian officials have prepared a new agenda that includes plans for a trade deal to present to new President Barack Obama. The same agenda was rejected by the Bush administration. Associated Press

Bolivia-U.S. Relations (cont.) Obama has reportedly congratulated Evo Morales on the passage of the referendum. However, the Obama administration has yet to issue a formal statement. A formal statement would likely indicate support for the constitutional process, while continued silence would be interpreted as support for the opposition that vowed to defy the new constitution.