FWI PROGRESS THROUGH th year of effort w/ majority of the 22-funded FWI Projects active >125 peer-reviewed publications >>100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent National and Int’l forums > 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students Outreach efforts: Press conferences, media interviews (CNN, NY Times / Discovery Channel / Canadian Broadcasting Co., NPR), 2 Congressional briefings--800K Google hits from Marika Holland’s rapid sea ice retreat study post AGU Press Conf.

Anticipated FWI Sunset Products & Activities: Many forthcoming individual project articles JGR-Biogeosciences Special Issue (20-22 papers accepted) AGU-Eos FWI summary Supported water-oriented session at 2007 Arctic Forum Arctic-CHAMP Capstone Synthesis WS (2008) (int’l as an IPY-affiliated meeting) Planning for IPY and beyond (HYCOS, HYDRA, ICARP II) Last All-Hands, Bodega Bay CA (cast as workshop on key findings) Perhaps another capstone…..

FALL 2007 AGU UNION SESSION The Modern and Recent Arctic Environment Organized by Dennis Lettenmaier, Charles Vörösmarty, Jamie Morison, and Son Nghiem Recommended by AGU Program Committee to be Included as Union Session (High Profile and Large Attendance Historically) Forum for Bringing Together Work from Large Coordinated Efforts Such as FWI, ASOF, SEARCH, and Many Other Related Projects Review of Current State of the Arctic and it’s Recent Past are Timely Contributions to the International Polar Year (IPY)

FWI Synthesis Activities Working Group Updates Two Working Groups Initially Formed at 2004 FWI All-Hands Meeting in Woods Hole; Third Working Group Formed at 2006 All-Hands Meeting in Estes Park –“Budgeteers” WG (Mark Serreze, Richard Lammers, Craig Lee, and Dick Moritz) -- goals accomplished, paper published, group ‘disbanded’ –“CAWG” (Changes, Attributions, Impacts and Implications) WG (Marika Holland, Jennifer Francis, Craig Lee, Max Holmes, Dan White) group making steady progress; 1 paper in press for JGR Biogeosciences FWI Special Issue, 2nd paper in progress –“Intensifiers” WG (Michael Rawlins, lead) formed at 2006 Estes Park Meeting and making good progress; paper submitted to 2007 Fall AGU Meeting –Central Role in Synthesis and Integration Activities Conference Calls ~Bi-Monthly, Coordinated by Arctic-CHAMP SMO –Larry Hinzman, Charlie Vörösmarty, and Jonathan Pundsack Participate in Calls –Making Steady Progress

Budgeteers Progress and Plans Serreze M. C., A. P. Barrett, A. G. Slater, R. A. Woodgate, K. Aagaard, R. B. Lammers, M. Steele, R. Moritz, M. Meredith, C. M. Lee (2006), The large-scale freshwater cycle of the Arctic, J. Geophys. Res., 111, C11010, doi: /2005JC

The Arctic Freshwater System: Changes and Impacts Daniel M. White, Larry Hinzman, Lilian Alessa, John Cassano, Molly Chambers, Kelly Falkner, Jennifer Francis, William J. Gutowski, Jr., Marika Holland, R. Max Holmes, Henry Huntington, Douglas Kane, Andrew Kliskey, Craig Lee, Jim McClelland, Bruce Peterson, Scott Rupp, Fiamma Straneo, Michael Steele, Rebecca Woodgate, Daqing Yang, Kenji Yoshikawa, Tingjun Zhang FWI Special Issue JGR Biogeosciences, C hanges and A ttributions W orking G roup CAWG

Variable stocks = bold fluxes = italics Period of Recor d Current Trend and Confidence Observed Land Changes Permafrost Storage Active Layer Thickness– –Eurasia –North America / confident no trend / confident Soil Moisture1960 – /- / confident Lakes/Wetlands+/- / confident River Q – –Eurasian – North American – Hudson Bay / confident No trend/ confident - / confident Atmos. Changes Atmospheric Moisture Transport + / confident Atmospheric Storage + / confident Precipitation –over land N.A. –over land Eurasia –over ocean - / confident no trend / confident no trend / uncertain Precipitation – Evaporation –over land N.A. –over land Eurasia –over ocean + / confident uncertain + / confident Ocean Ch an ge s Arctic Ocean- / confident North Atlantic / Nordic Sea + / confident Labrador Sea+ / confident Sea ice –area –volume –first year 1978-pres. 1960s-pres pres. - / very confident - / confident + / very confident Bering Strait1999- presDecreasing between 1999 and 2001 Increasing between 2001 and 2004 /confident Fram Strait outflow – liquid Fram Strait outflow –ice volume –ice area / confident Canadian Arch. outflow –liquid –ice + / confident Hudson Straitunknown Variable stocks = bold fluxes = italics Period of Record Current Trend and Confidence Observed Land Changes Permafrost Storage Active Layer Thickness– –Eurasia –North America / confident no trend / confident Soil Moisture1960 – 2000+/- / confident Lakes/Wetlands+/- / confident River Q – –Eurasian – North American – Hudson Bay / confident No trend/ confident - / confident Atmosph eric Changes Atmospheric Moisture Transport + / confident Atmospheric Storage + / confident Precipitation –over land N.A. –over land Eurasia –over ocean - / confident no trend / confident no trend / uncertain Precipitation – Evaporation –over land N.A. –over land Eurasia –over ocean + / confident uncertain + / confident Ocean Changes Arctic Ocean- / confident North Atlantic / Nordic Sea + / confident Labrador Sea+ / confident Sea ice –area –volume –first year 1978-pres. 1960s-pres pres. - / very confident - / confident + / very confident Bering Strait1999- presDecreasing between 1999 and 2001 Increasing between 2001 and 2004 /confident Fram Strait outflow – liquid Fram Strait outflow –ice volume –ice area / confident Canadian Arch. outflow –liquid –ice + / confident Hudson Straitunknown

Central Question: How do trends drawn from observations compare with model depictions of the Arctic water cycle? Study Goals: - examination of trends in freshwater fluxes - benchmarks for expected changes from ensemble of GCM runs - identification of potential mechanistic linkages Water cycle trends can be expressed as: - extreme event (floods, droughts, etc.) - change in a stock (lakes, soil moisture) change in a flux (precipitation, runoff, ET) - change in a flux (precipitation, runoff, ET) An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations Focus of FWI “Intensifiers” Study The Intensifiers

Emphasis on pan-Arctic, long-term trends Candidate Transports - Land: flux convergence, precipitation, evapotranspiration, river discharge - Ocean: flux convergence, precipitation, evaporation, Bering Strait inflow, export through Canadian archipelago, Fram Strait liquid, Fram Strait ice Candidate Storages -Atmospheric over Land, subsurface over land, atmospheric over ocean, liquid and solid in ocean An Intensified Arctic Water Cycle? Trend Analysis of the Arctic System Freshwater Cycle: Observations and Expectations The Intensifiers

The Pan-Arctic Community-wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program (Arctic-CHAMP)

Resolving and quantifying the system interconnections is the first step to prediction

Integration doesn’t just happen: Resources/thinking needed to integrate otherwise independent studies Consensus-building: Needs coordinating structure w/ suitable balance of top-down & bottom-up approaches Shared sense of purpose: Clearly-stated, finite set of science questions & policy themes Focal points/concrete targets: Formulate active Working Groups with time tables for specific WG products Lessons from the US National Science Foundation FreshWater Integration (FWI) Study

Change continues to be a hallmark of the Arctic hydrologic system Many of the changes are coincident with an accelerated hydrologic cycle Manifested at numerous scales, from coordinated hemispheric change to diversified local-scale change Tools (models and data sets) emerging rapidly for analyzing behavior of the fully linked water system Limits arise from incomplete data, model components, and approaches for linking these Lessons from the US National Science Foundation FreshWater Integration (FWI) Study

WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE? SMO Support to FWI Investigations ( ) –Continuation of Current Functions –New Requests by FWI ‘Rank-and-File’ Members

Key scientific questions: What is the role of the Arctic Hydrological Cycle in the global climate system? What are the impacts of climate variability and change on the Arctic Hydrological Cycle? What are the feedbacks of changes in the Arctic Hydrological Cycle on the regional and global climate?

IPY Arctic-HYDRA Concept Cluster of several hydrological projects within the IPY Seed funding by the Nordic Council of Ministers, Pending application for seed funding from IASC Supported by WMO HWR, WMO CHy, WMO CBS, WCRP/CliC Participation of all Arctic Countries Participation of all Arctic Hydrological Services

Climate Permafrost Glaciers Geography Hydrographic network Snow Geology Components

Measurements Models Strategy

Arctic-HYDRA legacy: Near real time observations from a Pan-Arctic hydrometric network. Integrated data from LTHO for process studies

QUESTIONS? COMMENTS? INPUTS? IDEAS?