Five Behaviors That Can Reduce Schedule Risk Getting Started Today Craig Peterson, PMP Multi-Discipline System Engineer The MITRE Corporation Co-Author: C. Leigh Filiatrault, PMP

2 Today’s Presentation Today’s presentation is about reducing schedule risk by: Identifying and addressing common negative behaviors Implementing techniques that reinforce positive behaviors Improving risk management It is assumed that project planning, risk management and project schedules have already been implemented.

3 Today’s Presentation Today’s presentation is not about: Providing Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) Training (but there will be a small review) Teaching basic project management techniques Debating traditional project management vs. CCPM Underlying Principle: There is no substitute for solid project planning, estimating and risk management practices.

4 A Project’s Goal Can we all agree that …… The Goal Project delivers results that satisfy customers Necessary Condition Meet or exceed technical requirements Necessary Condition Meet or exceed technical requirements Necessary Condition Meet or exceed schedule commitment Necessary Condition Meet or exceed schedule commitment Necessary Condition Meet or exceed quality requirements Necessary Condition Meet or exceed quality requirements Necessary Condition Meet or exceed cost commitment Necessary Condition Meet or exceed cost commitment = and

5 What is Seen on Typical Projects What’s normal …...  Project duration is expanded  Scope is sacrificed to meet deadlines  Quality is traded off  Projects overrun their original budgets Deliver at an appropriate cost (Budget) Deliver the required functionality (Scope) Deliver the appropriate fitness for use (Quality) Deliver at the correct time (Schedule) Project “Tension Pyramid”

6 Schedule Estimates Time Most Likely {50/50} Effort Which estimate Is really provided? ?

7 Why Improvements Not Realized  Tasks do not finish early, despite inflated estimates Contingency time is wasted  Realize no gains from positive schedule variations Rarely see tasks completing early!  Critical Path shifts, causing shifts in project focus  Metrics Collects data about the past to predict the future …… but does nothing to directly insure completion of project on scheduled date

8 Theory of Constraints Basics  All businesses are systems (dependent events)  All systems must have a constraint that limits output, and, therefore, non-constraints have excess capacity  System Output = Throughput = Organization’s Goal  System optimum is not the sum of the local optima  Measurements should: induce what is good for the whole (system optima = “The Goal”) direct managers to parts needing attention

9 Theory of Constraints Basics (cont.)  Therefore: Time lost at the constraint is lost forever or Non-constraint improvements = Waste (in two different categories)

10 Theory of Constraints Basics (cont.)  Managing the Constraint (The 5 Focusing Steps) Identify Exploit Subordinate Elevate Prevent Inertia  Production Management Tool (DBR) Drum - Constraint sets the system’s pace Buffer - Never starve the constraint (time lost) Rope - Constraint controls release of new work  Measurement Point = DBR (Nothing else is needed)

11 TOC to Critical Chain The Thinking Process Outline the PM process Identify Failure Point Add “Injections” Test for sufficiency Critical Chain is born!

12 Critical Chain & Risk Management Goldratt calls Critical Chain an Uncertainty Management Tool  Uncertainty does not equal Risk Management here, but …. Does build in contingency for low grade risks. Reduced schedule means less time for changes.

13 Pros  Focuses on project constraints.  Dramatic schedule reductions.  Easy project status reporting.  MS Project add-on software exists.  Does not “conflict” with other approaches.

14 Cons  Resourced schedules required.  Risks not directly addressed by methodology. Uses buffers to address most risk. Still need to do some other risk planning/tracking.  Less detail puts greater burden on task leadership.  Must get behavioral changes in place / institutionalized.

15 Take Away Points Even if not ready to adopt, consider …...  Manage & protect constraints Project is the goalDo all see the single goal? What limits progress?  Change project team behavior Metrics affectsWhat is being incentivized? Make “new habits”Roadrunner No Multi-Tasking Manage to effort (not ) Take-away Line: Or … instead of adopting … take some lesson’s learned! Lets look at the injections

16 The Five Negative Behaviors According to CCPM, there are Five Common behaviors that appear to support good project management, but are actually, detrimental. They are: 1.Protecting the Estimate 2.Managing to Due Dates verses Estimated Duration (Student Syndrome) 3.Starting Tasks Earlier than Necessary 4.Managing of Key Resources (Constraint Management) 5.Multitasking Resources Although supportive of generally accepted management practices the five negative behaviors can lead to a projects failure.

17 Behavior 1: Protecting the Estimate Definition : Consciously or unconsciously adding a safety margin to ensure that a project or task can be completed on time. Assumption: This margin will be added to provide 90+ percent probability of accurate estimation.

18 Correcting Behaviors 1: Protecting the Estimate CCPM advocates: 1.Reduce the estimate to a 50% Probability 2.Add 25% of original estimate to buffer 3.Track extra time (positive & negative) in buffer Assumption: Negative and positive gains in time balance each other out and the project finishes earlier than the original estimate.

19 Correcting Behaviors 1: Protecting the Estimate Reduce Protecting the Estimate risks by: 1. ID’ing the risks driving the size of the contingency Review project planning documents Discuss the estimate with the estimator 2. Quantify the risks behind the contingency 3. Develop a risk response plan 4. Control and monitor the risks Goal: Reduce the management reserve or contingency to match the level of risk!

20 Results: Protecting the Estimate Countering Protecting the Estimate reduces risk in non-CCPM projects because: Unknown-unknowns reduced Risks are openly addressed Stakeholders can have more confidence in management reserve or project buffers are appropriate for the task or project. Project buffers are equal to their risk

21 Behavior 2: Student Syndrome CCPM also calls this the “Student Syndrome” Definition: Failure to focus 100% on a task at the start since the due date is in the future. People tend to focus on the due dates of tasks, not the amount of effort it will take to complete the task. Project participants don’t become 100% focuses until the due date is close. The safety margin is consumed early on due to the lack of focus, not the risk events for which it is intend.

22 Correcting Behaviors 2: Student Syndrome Units of time should be identified to fit goals. Goals should not be fit into units of time. CCPM advocates focusing on task estimates rather than deadlines: Give team members only the work effort estimates, not the due dates Allow only enough time to complete the task Capture both late tasks and early completions in buffers

23 Correcting Behaviors 2: Student Syndrome To implement the CCPM theory, managers need to change their behavior by focusing on: Work estimates (days or hours), not due dates How much effort is required to complete the task, not how much has been completed Giving positive or acceptable reactions to missed estimates (assuming 50% probability) Management must change their own expectations to encourage a change in their team’s behavior.

24 Correcting Behaviors 2: Student Syndrome Corresponding to management efforts, team members must be willing to change their work habits by: Working to achieve tasks on time with 50% probability Achieving and reporting early completions Without supportive team behavior, CCPM theory cannot be executed.

25 Results: Student Syndrome Creating the correct management and team behaviors will improve the project enhanced by: Enhancing the accuracy of estimates Identifying issues and missing information early Providing the opportunity to proactively deal with the unexpected

26 Behavior 3: Starting Tasks Too Early Definition: Tasks are started as early as possible, which is often before all the necessary information is known. Don’t “jump the gun.”

27 Correcting Behavior 3: Starting Tasks Too Early CCPM advocates starting as late as possible to prevent: Tasks expanding to fill the time allotted Rework Starting too soon leads to rework because: A task is begun with incomplete knowledge Scope changes CCPM does not advocate delay for the sake of delay, but rather delay to begin with clearer information and more confidence.

28 Correcting Behavior 3: Starting Tasks Too Early Delaying a task until of the latest possible start date affects Risk Management in two ways: 1.Improves the ability to determine buffer sizes’ based on: Tasks Risk Project Risk 2.Establishes expectations for the timeframe of future tasks. “To begin by bluster, but afterwards to take fright…shows a supreme lack of intelligence” Sun Tsu, The Art of War

29 Results: Starting Tasks Too Early Delaying a start date to further clarify a project provides: Significant savings, for even a few tasks Disincentive for work to expand to fill the time More flexibility for key resources

30 Behavior 4: Management of Key Resources Definition: Key Resources are the constrained resources on the project. Key Resources may be: Physical resource such as tool or machinery A human resource such as an individual with a unique skills A process is not a key resource.

31 Correcting Behaviors 4: Management of Key Resources CCPM manages key resources by ensuring that: Tasks – Constrained resources perform only those tasks that they alone can uniquely fulfill. Workload – Excess work is not built up waiting for the constrained resource. Timing – Buffers are used to ensure that the work is ready for the resource and that the resource is ready for the work. Constrained resources should perform only those tasks which can not be performed by other (unconstrained) resources.

32 Correcting Behaviors 4: Management of Key Resources Evaluate the allocation of key resources on: Tasks – Can alternative resources be applied or can the tasks be completed in another order? Workload – Is the volume of work within the capabilities of the key resource? Timing – Is the resource available when needed? Is the work ready for the resource? Can buffers or float be used to create the appropriate timing? Incorporated management of key resources into the project schedule.

33 Results: Management of Key Resources Identifying the key resources and managing them effectively enables: Project planning around tasks and resources as opposed to just deadlines and deliverables Proactive coordination of the constrained resource Tighter management of schedule variance (and use of buffers)

34 Behavior 5: Multitasking Definition: Assigning one person to work on two or more tasks concurrently. Multitasking may come from: Within the project Outside of the project Few people can apply themselves to multiple concurrent tasks well. More often, all tasks will suffer.

35 Correcting Behavior 5: Multitasking CCPM corrects multitasking by: Forbidding constrained resources from multitasking Eliminate multitasking by not allowing it to be scheduled from the start.

36 Correcting Behavior 5: Multitasking The Project Manager can: Control inside the project By rescheduling one or more of the tasks By adding other resources Influence outside the project By escalating a resource conflict By creative resource negotiation Project management’s role is to facilitate the team’s accomplish- ment of the goal and keep them focused on the task at hand.

37 Results 5: Multitasking The elimination of multitasking: Keeps people focused on their immediate tasks Resolves conflicts between priorities Keeps people focused on the most critical tasks for the project Allows progress to be more accurately measured

38 Summary Correcting the Five Common Negative Behaviors in a traditional project management environment: Assumes solid project planning, scheduling and risk management Requires changes in both management and team interaction Permits individual, grouped or all behaviors being implemented

39 Summary Recommendations on Implementing These Behavior Changes: Key resource management and multitasking hold lowest implementation risk for most organizations Estimate protection, managing to effort, and starting tasks later is dependant on other implementation activities and team behavior changes

40 Questions

41 Contact Information For more information, the I can be contacted at: Craig Peterson, PMP Multi-Discipline System Engineer The MITRE Corporation (703)