1-1 McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved C H A P T E R FIVE Measuring Market Opportunities: Forecasting and Market Knowledge.

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1-1 McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved C H A P T E R FIVE Measuring Market Opportunities: Forecasting and Market Knowledge 5

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1-3 Discussion Question 1. Of the two main approaches for sales forecasting - top- down and bottom-up - which is better?

1-4 Discussion Question 2. What are the advantages and limitations of the various evidence-based forecasting methods?

1-5 6 methods  Statistical methods  Regression analysis (Michelin Asia)  Averages  Exponential Smoothing  Models  Conjoint AnalysisAnalysis  Observation  How many minutes per day the typical pay phone was used

1-6  Surveys  Survey of buyers’ intention  Survey of Salesforce opinion  Focus Groups  Analogy  Danone new flavor  HDTV  Judgment  Executive Judgment  Delphi Technique

1-7  Market teststests  Experimental  Live

1-8 Discussion Question 3. How does one go from methods to math?  Chain ratio method  Brand or category indices

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1-11 Ideas for new products or new ventures: How do we know how fast customers will adopt? Source: Adapted with permission from Marketing, 11/e, Acetate 8-8, by Michael J. Etzel, Bruce J. Walker, and William J. Stanton. The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. © All rights reserved.

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1-15  The risk  Relative advantage  Relative simplicity  Compatibility  The ease of Trial  The ease of communication

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1-17 Discussion Question 4. How fast will the adoption curve move for a particular innovation?

1-18 Discussion Question 5. What makes for good forecasting?  What are common pitfalls?  Anchored  Capacity constraints  Incentive plans

1-19 Discussion Question 6.Where does the market knowledge come from to help us assess markets and industries, understand buyer behavior, and prepare forecasts?

1-20  Internal Records Systems  Marketing Databases  Competitive Intelligence Systems  Client contact & Sales force automation systems

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1-27 Discussion Question 7. What questions should informed users of marketing research ask, before approving a study?

1-28  What are the objectives of the research?  Are the data sources appropriate? (other better data available)  Qualitative versus Quantitative  Research well designed?  Planned analyses appropriate? (specified before research started)