February 2006 – 1 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A–2361 Laxenburg, Austria IIASA in 2006 Professor Leen Hordijk

February 2006 – 2 History  1967 initiative of US President Johnson and Prime Minister Kosygin, Soviet Union  Create research center as a “neutral bridge between east and west”  Original Charter signed in 1972 by 12 countries  1994 Ministerial Conference: renewed mandate as independent, scientific institution  In addition to East–West also North–South, meaning Global

February 2006 – 3 A renowned research institute that is  international  interdisciplinary  independent  non-governmental  sponsored by a consortium of National Member Organizations from 16 (18 in 2007) countries  And has an international scientific staff (currently 184 persons, 85 person years from 27 nations) Identity

February 2006 – 4 Current 18 Members  Austria  China  Czech Republic  Egypt  Estonia  Finland  Germany  Hungary  INDIA (2007)  Japan  Netherlands  Norway  PAKISTAN (2007)  Poland  Russian Federation  Sweden  Ukraine  United States of America

February 2006 – 5 IIASA Networking Relationships crucial to IIASA  3,600 IIASA alumni from 60 countries  1,400 Young Summer Scientists from 70 countries  Partnerships with leading authorities in wide range of scientific fields  Potential new members in South Africa, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, United Kingdom

February 2006 – 6 Past Accomplishments  Put climate change on agenda mid-1970s  Global energy assessment, 1981  European acid rain policy model, 1989  Greenhouse gas projections  Genetic changes in fish  The end of population growth  Russian forests study  Food security and climate change  Assess socioeconomic consequences of extreme events

February 2006 – 7 IIASA Research Themes I. Environment and Natural Resources II. Energy and Technology III. Population and Society

February 2006 – 8 Environment and Natural Resources Theme Atmospheric Pollution and Economic Development Program Interdisciplinary research to develop modeling tools for supporting strategies in order to protect local, regional and global atmosphere with least burden on economic development RAINS and GAINS models; simulation and optimization Evolution and Ecology Program Interdisciplinary research on human-induced evolutionary changes in exploited fish stocks and on impact of environmental disturbances on the structure and functioning of food webs Adaptive dynamics models Forestry Program Interdisciplinary research on three major areas of the management of the forest sector - greenhouse gas cycling and terrestrial ecosystems - global impacts of forest sector development in emerging economies - international governance of forests Biophysical models Land Use Change and Agriculture Program Interdisciplinary research on agro-ecosystem services as food, fiber, carbon, bioenergy and with special emphasis on food security and rural livelihoods, sustainable soil and water resources and impacts of climate change GIS based models

February 2006 – 9 Energy and Technology Theme Energy Program Interdisciplinary research on three major areas - global energy assessment - energy modeling - investments and financing in energy MESSAGE optimization model Transitions to New Technologies Program Interdisciplinary research on - describing the diffusion of new technologies in time and space - assessing economic, social and environmental implications of technology diffusion - assisting policy making on technological innovation and diffusion Agent Based Modeling Dynamic Systems Program Interdisciplinary research on large scale dynamic systems with emphasis on - methodology development - technology and energy development - environmental dynamics Optimal control; game theory; dynamic growth models

February 2006 – 10 Population and Society Theme World Population Program Interdisciplinary research on population dynamics and population-environment interactions focusing on three issues - population forecasting - population characteristics and human capital - population and environment Probabilistic forecasting Population and Climate Change Program Interdisciplinary research on integrated assessments of climate change with respect to - influence demographic change on emissions - the role of uncertainty and learning - medium-term response strategies Modeling uncertainty and learning Risk and Vulnerability Program Interdisciplinary research to contribute to decrease the risk and vulnerability of societies and ecosystems (vulnerability consider multiple stress and system resilience) by addressing four goals - methodological development of risk and vulnerability models - case studies on risk and vulnerability assessments - integrative stakeholder led case studies - develop interactive tools for training on vulnerability and adaptation Time dependent risk modeling; agent based models linked to biogeophysical models Processes of International Negotiation Network Program Interdisciplinary research in order to facilitate or support international negotiations on disputes, conflicts and international regimes Game theory

February 2006 – 11 Crosscutting activities Greenhouse Gas Initiative The objective is to bridge temporal and spatial scales of climate change, from shorter-term national and place-specific policies and measures directed at mitigating and adapting to climate change, to the longer-term global objective of stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a “non-dangerous” level Downscaling; scenario modeling Water Projects in modeling, forestry, agriculture, vulnerability, population and negotiations Methodology Forum Its goal is to facilitate cross-program sharing of experiences and problems in methodological issues Scaling; uncertainty analysis

February 2006 – 12 Special Projects Health and Global Change Project Interdisciplinary research on pandemic influenza by studying - international governance issues in epidemiological surveillance and control - response strategies as vaccination - socioeconomic impacts - demographic aspects of influenza Integrated Modeling Environment Project Interdisciplinary research to build capacity to meet the Institute’s needs for integrated model support with three objectives - integrate and extend modeling methods and tools developed into advanced web-based modeling environment - develop tools for policy analyses to cope with inherent endogenous uncertainties and risks - develop tools for integrated model analysis combining capabilities of different methods Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project Clearing house activities (models, data bases, scenarios, publications) in 2006

February 2006 – 13  Uncertainty, robustness  Spatial specificity  Renewal of systems analysis methods  Problem interdependencies  Stakeholder involvement  Bridge science-policy divide Important Current Science Issues

February 2006 – 14 Thank you For further information see