Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution CAFE team, DG Environment and streamlined air quality legislation

Thematic Strategy is a response to 6 th EAP 6 th EAP- Decision of Council & EP of July 2002: 6 th EAP- Decision of Council & EP of July 2002: ‘achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment’; (Art 7.1. of 6th EAP) Integrated approach; consistency with other environmental policies; exploit synergies; Better Regulation Better Regulation supported by thorough impact assessment; new legislative proposal to streamline air quality legislation

Objective of Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Programme l Established in 2001 to provide the technical input for the Thematic Strategy on air pollution l Best available science & transparency l Benchmark current and future air pollution with regard to significant impacts l Define interim objectives up to 2020 – based on analysis of closing the gap between business as usual and Maximum Technical Feasible improvement l Inform the review of air quality legislation Starting point in 2000 Starting point in 2000 m ≈ 350,000 premature deaths attributable to PM m Average statistical life expectancy shortened by roughly 9 months, in some MSs: 1 to 2 years.

How were these interim objectives defined? l Peer-reviewed health (WHO) and scientific advice l Assessment of the effect of current policies l Peer-reviewed integrated assessment to develop cost-effective solutions for both health and environment l Peer-reviewed Cost-Benefit Analysis l Macro-economic analysis m Lisbon Strategy & Competitiveness l Stakeholder involvement and consultation m Over 100 stakeholder meetings and over responses to internet based consultation l Accompanied by comprehensive impact assessment (170+ pages)

Impacts addressed by the Strategy (1) l Health: Fine Particles (PM 2.5 ) & Ozone m Range of problems from minor respiratory effects to premature death; also cardiovascular effects. m No known thresholds for effects l Acid rain (SO 2, NOx, NH 3 ) m Affects freshwaters and terrestrial ecosystems m leads to loss of flora & fauna; reduced growth of forests, leaching of toxic metals into soil solution

Impacts addressed by the Strategy (2) l Eutrophication (NOx, NH 3 ) m Excess nutrient nitrogen causes species composition change & loss of biodiversity m Also causes nutrient imbalances in plants/trees - increases susceptibility to other stresses such as drought l Ozone (non-health) m Damages trees and plants including agricultural crops m Damages buildings/materials

Defining cost-effective solutions is complicated SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 PM HealthAcidificationEutrophication Ozone Interim objectives for 2020

Example 1: Fine particles Even if situation improves by 2020: 2.5 million life years or 272,000 premature deaths if nothing is done. Source: Clean Air for Europe Programme (2005) Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology

Example 2: Problem of too much nitrogen deposited to nature in 2020 No EU policies have yet addressed this. Source: Clean Air for Europe Programme (2005) Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads using grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology Ecosystem area exceeded eutrophication km 2

Summary of “Business as Usual” l Emissions continue to decline l But in 2020 m Premature deaths related to fine particulates still 270,000 m Loss of statistical average life still 5 months in the EU m Ozone premature mortality equal to 20,800 cases m 119,000 km 2 of forest at risk from acid rain m 590,000 km 2 of ecosystems at risk from nutrient Nitrogen m 760,000 km 2 of forest at risk from ozone l Cost-effective improvements are possible kT % SO % NOx % VOCs % PM % NH % Ships will represent 125% and 101% of land based SO 2 and NOx emissions in 2020.

The Strategy

Costs and benefits of the CAFE policy scenarios Case "A"StrategyCase "B"Case "C"Max. technical reductions € Billion / year Road sources costsSOX costsNOX costsNH3 costs VOC costsPM25 costsHealth BenefitsUncertainty Strategy costs €7.1 billion per annum in 2020 and thereafter

Improvement of health & environment indicators following the Strategy (improvement relative to 2000)

Summary of Strategy – Costs & Benefits Ambition level Benefits Costs per annum (€bn) Human healthNatural environment Life Years Lost (million) PM 2.5 Premature deaths (000s) PM 2.5 and ozone Range in monetised health benefits per annum (€bn) Ecosystem area exceeded acidification (000 km 2 ) Ecosystem area exceeded eutro- phication (000 km 2 ) Forest area exceeded ozone (000 km 2 ) Forests Semi- natural Fresh- water Baseline Strategy – MTFR –

Objectives of the Strategy Improvements by 2020 relative to 2000 Life Years lost from particulate matter (million) 47% Acute mortality from ozone 10% Ecosystem forest area exceeded from acidification 74% Ecosystem freshwaters area exceeded from acidification 39% Ecosystem area exceeded from eutrophication 43% Forest area exceeded by ozone 15%

Lisbon Strategy/Competitiveness No change in jobsNo change in jobs GDP effects are small GDP effects are small -0.01% change in growth rate -0.01% change in growth rate billions of euros

What about China? l Has already adopted Euro 2 standard for cars m Euro 3 standard in 2007 l Newly built and expanded coal-fired units must install flue gas desulphurization (FGD) m Old plants, sulphur content of coal below 0.5% l All pure condensing type generators below 50 MW are phased out l Levy on SO 2 emissions m About €60/tonne m US SO 2 price is $150-$200/tonne l Similar levy planned also on NOx emissions.

Measures following the Strategy l Euro 5 for cars and vans l Euro 6 for Heavy Duty Engines l Revision of the NECD consistent with objectives identified in the Strategy l Small scale combustion m Review of IPPC directive for larger sources m Energy using Products directive for small sources l Ship NOx engine standards (IMO or Community) l Agriculture (NH 3 ) m N content of feedstuffs m Review of IPPC directive for intensive agriculture l Revise Air quality legislation

Air Quality Legislation (1) COM (2005) 447 final l Better Regulation m Merge AQ Framework Directive, EoI Decision, and 1 st - 3 rd Daughter directives m Tidy up inconsistencies m More flexibility for Member States r Natural Sources of pollution can be discounted r Time extensions (< 5 years) where all reasonable measures taken and new plan prepared to ensure compliance

Air Quality Legislation (2) l Move towards electronic reporting of air quality information/Inspire friendly l No change to existing limit values l New provisions on PM 2.5 m Concentration cap of 25µg/m 3 annual average to apply everywhere – legally indentical to a limit value. m Robust monitoring of PM 2.5 concentrations m Target to reduce national average measured urban background concentration by 20% between 2010 and 2020 subject to later review where differentiated MS legal objectives to be proposed

New NEC Directive l New pollutants (PPM, CH 4 ) l New approaches – trading/cooperation between Member States l Relative ceilings rather than absolute caps l New obligations to support CLRTAP scientific work m CLs reporting m Gridded emissions reporting m Monitoring l Revision of the reporting regime

Final thoughts l Air pollution is and will continue to be a real problem for health and environment m Need to act at EU level -- air pollution is transboundary l Ambitious but cost-effective proposals m Based on comprehensive Impact Assessment m Based on sound peer-reviewed science l Better Regulation m Streamlining legislation: 50% reduction in paper provisions m New approach to environmental policy r Flexibility r Reducing average background concentration of fine particulates l