A methodology to factor Industrial Risk into Land Use Planning Decisions: Case Study of Haldia, India Anandita Sengupta, Ph.D. Student Debanjan Bandyopadhyay, Ph. D. Student

What is an industrial hazard? Oil tankers on fire at the IOC depot at Sitapura Industrial Area in Jaipur Toxic Release Fire Explosion

 More than 150 industrial clusters in India have concentration of MAH industries;  Industries in most of these clusters have come up in an unplanned manner over time;  Such areas have also witnessed high growth of population over time;  Resultantly, the levels of risk to population from a potential accident from MAH industries is very high; The Background

 There are various ways to reduce risk to population in such MAH clusters:  Increase in levels of safety within industries through better management systems, technology and training to employees;  Efficient response and mitigation actions to quickly attain control of a potential accident scenario;  Adoption of preventive measures through effective land use zoning / planning in the vicinity of the MAH industries; Risk Control / Prevention Measures

 In India, implementation of Land Use Plans have been weak in Urban / Industrial areas;  Land Use Planning in industrial areas does not factor industrial risk;  No regulatory requirement to incorporate industrial risk as a consideration for Land Use Planning;  Planners do not have access to risk information ;  No standard criteria for risk assessment which can be translated into Land Use Planning criteria; The Concerns

How close would you authorise building a school near the two GPL spheres? How close would you like to live near the two LNG spheres? Industrial risk and Land use planning

To relate industrial risk with Land Use planning:  Selection of appropriate accident scenarios;  Deciding on risk assessment methodology to be employed;  Deciding on hazard end-points and risk tolerability criteria;  Basis for delineation or restrictions around existing and new installations; ?? Industrial risk and Land use planning (contd…)

Haldia town has developed in a haphazard and unplanned manner; The land-use is mixed and varied comprising of agricultural land, residential areas, villages and slum clusters, industrial areas, forests and greenbelts, ponds, wetlands and rivers; Some typical land-use patterns : –Planned residential –Industrial –Unplanned mix of residential, agricultural and rural Case study town: Haldia

Changes in Landuse  Industrial development 1960s – rural landuse 1970s – Port, IOC

Changes in Landuse  Industrial development 1980 & 90s – HPL, Exide, MCC PTA, IBP, HPCL, BPCL

Changes in Landuse  Industrial development 2000s and upcoming – IOC Petronas, Sanjana Cryogenics, Reliance, TATA Power, CESC, IOC refinery, Adani Wilmur, etc.

Till 2006 Temporal changes in Population

Objectives and Approach  To draw up a semi-quantitative methodology to calculate an area measure of societal risk, taking into account different potential accident scenarios from a cluster of MAH industries.  Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential x Damage Factor −Methodology applied on 100 x 100 M grid for the entire Haldia planning area  Versatile approach, with scope for setting benchmarks at each step by policy /regulatory bodies

Methodology  Step 1 : Calculation of Hazard Intensity at individual grid points as a result of industry specific hazard scenarios: -Setting up of reference scenarios based on Maximum Credible Loss Potential for each industry

Methodology  Step 1 : Continued  Defining levels of concerns for hazard intensity -Explosion : 8psi, 3.5 psi and 1 psi -Fire : 10KW/m2 (potentially lethal within 60sec. of exposure), 5KW/m2 (second degree burns within 60 sec.), 2KW/m2 (pain within 60 sec) -Toxicity – IDLH, I/2 IDLH and 1/3 IDLH  Step 2 : Estimate likelihood of hazard scenario based on historical accident analysis data (specifically Purple Book) and rank into classes 1, 2 & 3

Levels of Concern & Footprint generation Reference Scenario: Toxic gas release (Ammonia ) 210 mg/m3 100 mg/m3 50 mg/m3 Threshold value used

Methodology (contd…)  Step 3 : Calculation of Hazard Potential (HP) at grid points as : HP = Hazard Intensity x Hazard Probability  Hazard potential stands for a measure of likelihood of hazard that may be caused at a point x,y because of a particular accident  Step 4 : Hazard Potential at a grid point summed up for multiple scenarios as : HPs = ∑ HPi  Step 5 : Hazard Potential categorized into category high, medium & low.

Methodology  Step 6 : Calculation of Damage Factor = pop density X quality of housing X sensitivity −pop density - calculated grid wise based on decimetric interpolation method −quality of housing - predominant nature of houses in grid - kutcha, mixed, brick/concrete −sensitivity - no. of sensitive receptors present in grid Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential X Damage Factor

Thank you!