E LECTION & I SSUES P REVIEW J UNE, 2012

2 S ATISFACTION WITH S IZE & P OWER / I NFLUENCE OF F EDERAL G OVERNMENT AND M AJOR C ORPORATIONS

C ONGRESSIONAL A GENDA M UST -D OS M UST -D OS : Export-Import Bank Reauthorization (H.R. 2072) – expires May 31 st National Flood Insurance Program – expires May 31 st Highway Bill Reauthorization (H.R. 4348) – expires June 30 th FDA User Fees [PDUFA/MDUFA] (H.R. 5651) – expires September 30 th FY2013 Appropriations bills need to be passed by September 30 th National Defense Authorization Act for FY2013 (H.R. 4310) M AY -D OS M AY -D OS : Cyber Security (H.R. 3523) passed House on April 26 th by a vote of – McCain vs. Lieberman-Collins competing bills in the Senate Violence Against Women Reauthorization (H.R. 4970) – S passed the Senate on April 26 th by a vote of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status for Russia 3

4 S WING S TATES FOR P RESIDENTIAL E LECTION Illinois The election will be decided mainly in seven states with 85 toss-up electoral votes (All seven states are states that Obama won in 2008)

E LECTORAL V OTES (270 TO WIN ) 5 OBAMA – 217 needs 53 to win (185 solid / 32 lean) Maine (2 nd district = 1 vote) Michigan (16 votes) New Mexico (5 votes) Minnesota (10 votes) ROMNEY – 206 needs 64 to win (158 solid / 48 lean) Arizona (11 votes) Indiana (11 votes) Missouri (10 votes) North Carolina (15 votes) Nebraska (2 nd district = 1 vote) Colorado (9 votes) Florida (29 votes) Iowa (6 votes) New Hampshire (4 votes) Nevada (6 votes) Ohio (18 votes) Pennsylvania (20 votes) Virginia (13 votes) Wisconsin (10 votes) TOSS UP – 115 (9 tossup states) Maine and Nebraska give two electoral votes to the statewide winner and allocate the rest by congressional district.

O BAMA CAN WIN IN 2012 BY HOLDING THE STATES WHERE HE OUTPERFORMED HIS 2008 NATIONAL AVERAGE 6

S ENATE S EATS IN P LAY 7 Connecticut (Joe Lieberman, retiring) Florida (Bill Nelson) Hawaii (Daniel Akaka, retiring) Indiana (Richard Lugar; lost primary) Massachusetts (Scott Brown) Maine (Olympia Snowe, retiring) Missouri (Claire McCaskill) Montana (Jon Tester) North Dakota (Kent Conrad, retiring) Nebraska (Ben Nelson, retiring) New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman, retiring) Nevada (Dean Heller) Ohio (Sherrod Brown) Pennsylvania (Bob Casey) Texas (Kay Bailey Hutcheson, retiring) Utah (Orrin Hatch) Virginia (Jim Webb) Wisconsin (Herb Kohl) West Virginia (Joe Manchin)

S ENATE S EATS IN P LAY 8 Connecticut (Joe Lieberman, retiring) Florida (Bill Nelson)  Hawaii (Daniel Akaka, retiring)  Indiana (Richard Lugar; lost primary) Massachusetts (Scott Brown) Maine (Olympia Snowe, retiring) Missouri (Claire McCaskill) Montana (Jon Tester)  North Dakota (Kent Conrad, retiring)  Nebraska (Ben Nelson, retiring) New Mexico (Jeff Bingaman, retiring) Nevada (Dean Heller)  Ohio (Sherrod Brown)  Pennsylvania (Bob Casey)  Texas (Kay Bailey Hutcheson, retiring)  Utah (Orrin Hatch) Virginia (Jim Webb) Wisconsin (Herb Kohl) West Virginia (Joe Manchin) S AFE /L IKELY D S AFE /L IKELY R T OSS U PS (The election information contained in this presentation is compiled from various sources with expertise in national elections.)

HAWAII (Daniel Akaka, retiring) OHIO (Sherrod Brown) PENNSYLVANIA (Bob Casey) WEST VIRGINIA (Joe Manchin) INDIANA (Richard Lugar; lost primary) NORTH DAKOTA (Kent Conrad, retiring) NEBRASKA (Ben Nelson, retiring) TEXAS (Kay Bailey Hutcheson, retiring) UTAH (Orrin Hatch) L EANS D L EANS R 9 CONNECTICUT (Joe Lieberman, retiring) FLORIDA (Bill Nelson) MASSACHUSETTS (Scott Brown) MAINE (Olympia Snowe, retiring) MISSOURI (Claire McCaskill) MONTANA (Jon Tester) NEW MEXICO (Jeff Bingaman, retiring) NEVADA (Dean Heller) VIRGINIA (Jim Webb) WISCONSIN (Herb Kohl) S ENATE S EATS IN P LAY T OSS U PS

O PEN H OUSE S EATS Open Republican Seats Jeff Flake (AZ-05, running for Senate) Wally Herger (CA-01, retiring) Jerry Lewis (CA-08, retiring) Elton Gallegly (CA-26, retiring) Connie Mack (FL-19, running for Senate) Tim Johnson (IL-13, retiring) Dan Burton (IN-05, retiring) Mike Pence (IN-06, running for governor) Geoff Davis (KY-04, retiring) Thad McCotter (MI-11, retiring) Todd Akin (MO-02, running for Senate) Denny Rehberg (MT-AL, running for Senate) Sue Myrick (NC-09, retiring) Rick Berg (ND-AL, running for Senate) Jean Schmidt (OH-02, lost primary) Todd Platts (PA-04, retiring) Ron Paul (TX-14, retiring) 21 Open Democratic Seats Mike Ross (AR-04, retiring) Lynn Woolsey (CA-02, retiring) Bob Filner (CA-51, running for mayor) Chris Murphy (CT-05, running for Senate) Mazie Hirono (HI-02, running for Senate) Jarry Costello (IL-12, retiring) Joe Donnelly (IN-02, running for Senate) Barney Frank (MA-04, retiring) Dale Kildee (MI-05, retiring) Shelley Berkley (NV-01, running for Senate) Martin Heinrich (NM-01, running for Senate) Gary Ackerman (NY-06, retiring) Edolphus Towns (NY-08, retiring) Heath Shuler (NC-11, retiring) Brad Miller (NC-13, retiring) Dan Boren (OK-02, retiring) Tim Holden (PA-17, lost primary) Silvestre Reyes (TX-16, lost primary) Charlie Gonzalez (TX-20, retiring) Norm Dicks (WA-06, retiring) Tammy Baldwin (WI-02, running for Senate)