Testing the Effectiveness of Geo- Behavioural Profiling Systems Professor David Canter & Laura Hammond Director, Centre for Investigative Psychology The.

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Testing the Effectiveness of Geo- Behavioural Profiling Systems Professor David Canter & Laura Hammond Director, Centre for Investigative Psychology The University of Liverpool,UK

Study of effectiveness of various prioritisation strategies 92 offence series in a London borough. All identified series over four years/

Various Models Illustrated from the crimes of Jack the Ripper

The ‘canonical’ map Nichols 31.8 –3.40 Chapman 8.9 – 6.00 Stride 30.9 – 1.00 Eddowes 30.9 – 1.45 Kelly ?

The ‘canonical’ map

Circle Hypothesis Calculation to Locate Ripper’s Base

Central Circle in Whitechapel

Centre of Gravity of Murder Locations

Two further concepts Criminal Range Decay Functions

Criminal ‘range’

Range of Distances traveled by Arsonists The Distance Decay Function, An example from serial arsonists

Optimal Function of Distance from Offence to ‘Home’

Offence Map: Developing the Search Tool that incorporates various distance functions. 1st Crime 2nd 3rd 4th 5th

The system assigns a priority to each known offender using various criteria. Offender IDAddressProbability MO Match 124Location A Location B Location C Location D Location E Location F Location G Prioritised search area

50% of actual offenders are in the top 5 prioritized just by geographical location. iOPS allows this to be improved by also using M.O. matching. Criteria Distance from centre of circle defined by 2 furthest crimes Distance from centre of gravity (centroid) Optimum negative log decay function Negative log decay function with buffer

(N = 92) ModelMean Rank (S.D)Median Rank Exponential Function - High B-value 8.86 (8.446)4 Logarithmic Function -Low B-value 9.04 (8.402)4.5 Logarithmic Function -High B-value 8.92 (8.350)5 Centre of Gravity 9.21 (8.256)5 Logarithmic Function -Optimal B-value 8.95 (8.349)5 Logarithmic Function with Buffer Zone- Optimal B-value 9.73 (8.674)5.5 Exponential Function - Low B-value (8.411)7 Exponential Function - Optimal B-value (8.461)7 Exponential Function with Buffer Zone- Optimal B-value (8.888)7 Last Offence (8.416)9 First Offence (8.424)10..5 Centre of Minimum Distance (8.066)14 Centre of Circle (7.536)21 Straight Linear Function (.000)21 COMPARISON OF 15 DIFFERENT MODELS

Need for more context specific examination of crime patterns Taking account of Land use Opportunities for crime Guardianship Targeting Transport routes Temporal sequences

Offender 1: 34 CRIMES 1 HOME LOCATION Offender 34 crimes 1 home location

Offender 2: 34 CRIMES 1 HOME LOCATION Offender 34 crimes 1 home location

2 Offenders with different distributions of crimse in relation to Southside Centre in Wandsworth Southside Centre Offender 34 crimes 1 home location Offender 34 crimes 1 home location

EXAMPLES FROM BURLGARIES IN WANDSWORTH PNC data 12 offenders All crime types 1992-present Offender 1: 10 CRIMES 2 HOME LOCATIONS

Offender 8: 24 CRIMES 1 HOME LOCATION

Offender 3: 20 CRIMES 3 HOME LOCATIONS

Offender 2: 21 CRIMES 3 HOME LOCATIONS

Offender 7: 13 CRIMES 2 HOME LOCATIONS

Offender 5: 19 CRIMES 3 HOME LOCATIONS

Offender 11: 48 CRIMES 3 HOME LOCATIONS

Offender 12: 53 CRIMES 2 HOME LOCATIONS