Climate Test Bed THE NOAA CLIMATE TEST BED Climate Community Climate Community Research & Development Research & Development NOAA Climate Forecast Operations NOAA Climate Forecast Operations Mission: Mission: to accelerate the transition of research and development into improved NOAA operational climate forecasts, products, and applications. 15 November 2004

2OUTLINE MotivationMotivation ObjectivesObjectives FrameworkFramework Science PrioritiesScience Priorities OrganizationOrganization NOAA Requested ResourcesNOAA Requested Resources MilestonesMilestones

3 MOTIVATION (Scientific) – –NCEP has developed and tested a new fully coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS) for use in S/I applications that shows considerable promise. – –The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability in the Tropical Pacific on S/I timescales, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts (Figure). – –Faster development of NOAA climate forecast systems is needed to improve on these forecasts and to provide more useful climate forecast products and applications on S/I time scales. – –Supporting NOAA climate forecast systems for use by climate researchers is an optimal way to leverage the expertise of both NOAA and the external scientific community in order to accelerate the necessary improvements.

4 Skill in SST Anomaly Prediction Niño 3.4 (DJF 97/98 – DJF 03/04) The CFS is a significant step forward in forecasting ENSO related SST variability in the Tropical Pacific on S/I timescales, having achieved at variability in the Tropical Pacific on S/I timescales, having achieved at least parity with statistical forecasts.

5 MOTIVATION (Programmatic) – –In order to achieve this synergistic blend of internal and external efforts required to improve NOAA operational climate forecast systems, a Climate Test Bed (CTB) facility is proposed. – –The CTB will provide more traction and visibility to intraseasonal-to-decadal climate research by accelerating the transition to NOAA climate forecast operations; provide an operational testing environment to support projects that result in a direct influence on NOAA climate forecast operations; provide infrastructure and resources for (long term, AO-driven, reviewed, community-wide) projects on broader research issues affecting NOAA climate forecast operations.

6 CLIMATE PROGRAM OFFICE

7 Support needed for systematic research to operations transition program: “Insufficient resources for utilization of research advances in multi-model ensemble forecast systems in operations and to enhance product suite, e.g. a need for ongoing Climate Test Bed”“Insufficient resources for utilization of research advances in multi-model ensemble forecast systems in operations and to enhance product suite, e.g. a need for ongoing Climate Test Bed” “Insufficient High Performance Computing (HPC) to support test bed activities - appears “above core””“Insufficient High Performance Computing (HPC) to support test bed activities - appears “above core”” “Lack of support to transition research and operational climate model codes to a community based software infrastructure to accelerate model advances from the external and internal research community to operations”“Lack of support to transition research and operational climate model codes to a community based software infrastructure to accelerate model advances from the external and internal research community to operations” “Predictions and Projections” component of Climate Program Plan Deficiencies

8 OBJECTIVES OBJECTIVES: Assess scientific advances models, tools, data sets, observing systems Accelerate synthesis and implementation of advances for NOAA operational climate forecasts consolidation of forecast tools; objective verification Develop new tools and applications in quasi-operational environment multi-model ensembles and S/I tools agriculture, fire, energy, water resource applications Evaluate climate forecasts and products

9 FRAMEWORK InfrastructureInfrastructure –Computing Support (1/3 rd NCEP “Red” Computer) –Software (e.g., models, data, diagnostics) Support Contractors, Technical Assistants, System AdministratorsContractors, Technical Assistants, System Administrators –Management and Administrative Staff Director, Deputy, Secretary, Program AssistantDirector, Deputy, Secretary, Program Assistant Transition ProjectsTransition Projects –Base Funded Short Term – potential for impact on operations in 1 yearShort Term – potential for impact on operations in 1 year NCEP and other line office reallocated FTE’sNCEP and other line office reallocated FTE’s –Announcements of Opportunity Long term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more yearsLong term – potential for impact on operations in 2 or more years Reviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issuesReviewed, competitive, community wide, broader science issues NOAA or external lead PIsNOAA or external lead PIs Co-PIs from operational centersCo-PIs from operational centers

10 CTB TRANSITION PROJECTS Base Funded (FY05) – –Assess NCEP operational climate forecast systems (CFS/GFS) Model diagnostics and testing – –Climate products and applications Consolidation of forecast tools (SST, P, T); skill masks Product development for climate monitoring and assessments Announcements of Opportunity (FY06 and beyond) – –Multi-model ensemble system development; MM climate forecasts and applications; Attribution – –Model development through CPTs – –Development of application products (e.g. fire, agriculture, energy, water resources) – –Climate reanalysis and data impact – –Advanced forecast capabilities (e.g. ecosystems; air chemistry; carbon cycle; fisheries)

11 RELATIONSHIPS TO OTHER PROGRAMS CLIVAR, GEWEX and Joint CLIVAR – GEWEX Programs U.S. (CPPA, GAPP, PACS, CLIVAR Atlantic and Pacific) International (VAMOS, AMMA, etc.) CLIVAR Climate Process and modeling Teams (CPTs) ARCS/IRI of CDEP NASA-NOAA-DOD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation Provides atmosphere, ocean, land surface data assimilation infrastructure Improved use of satellite data (Climate applications, reanalysis issues, observing system stability) Support Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) GFDL and NCEP codes are becoming ESMF compatible

12 Programmatic Thrusts, cont. Climate and Global Change Working Group Reports NOAA Climate Review October 18-19, 2004 NOAA SAB, November 2, 2004 Model improvementModel improvement –ESMF implementation –Climate Test Bed (CTB) is a wonderful innovation –Cycle time (1/3 backup for model dev/improvement) –Role of community usage Climate Process Teams (CPT) are an excellent innovation - this could serve as a general model for initiating innovative activities within the Climate ProgramClimate Process Teams (CPT) are an excellent innovation - this could serve as a general model for initiating innovative activities within the Climate Program

13 CTB ORGANIZATION Oversight Board Management Team – –Director – –Deputy Director – –Program Manager Climate Science Team Science Advisory Board

CTB ORGANIZATION Director CPC Deputy EMC Program Manager NCPO Test Bed Users Science / Software Support from Contractors; TA’s, SA’s Oversight Board CPC CDC EMC GFDL IRI NCPO Climate Science Team EMC CPC CDC GFDL NASA NCAR OST OCCWS EMC GFDL CPC CDC (Focal Points) Science Advisory Board

15 CHARGES FOR OB, CST AND SAB Oversight Board (OB):Oversight Board (OB): –Make recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and NCEP concerning the CTB Climate Science Team (CST):Climate Science Team (CST): –Guide CTB activities at the working level; evaluate results of CTB activities; make recommendations to the CTB management on computing resource usage and access Science Advisory Board (SAB):Science Advisory Board (SAB): –Works with the broader climate community to provide “independent” advice on high-priority scientific challenges; coordinates with other programs (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX)

16 OVERSIGHT BOARD Oversight Board (OB) responsibilities:Oversight Board (OB) responsibilities: –Make recommendations to Directors of NOAA Climate Office and NCEP concerning the CTB on an annual basis; –Facilitate cooperation between NOAA and other sponsoring institutions; –Review and approve policies, research and development themes and priorities of the CTB; –Adopt and revise the terms of reference for CTB operation; –Recommend to the NOAA Climate Office the inclusion of other institutions in the CTB; –Meet 2x / year. OB Members:OB Members: –NCEP CPC Director; –NCEP EMC Director; –CDC Director; –GFDL Director; –IRI Director; –NCPO Representative; –NASA Earth Sciences Director; –Appropriate representatives of other stakeholders (e.g. NASA Earth Sciences Director). The NCEP Director and the NOAA Climate Office Director shall be invited to OB meetings (if available).The NCEP Director and the NOAA Climate Office Director shall be invited to OB meetings (if available).

17 DIRECTOR The CTB Director shall be a NOAA Civil Servant selected by the NCEP Director in consultation with the Oversight Board.The CTB Director shall be a NOAA Civil Servant selected by the NCEP Director in consultation with the Oversight Board. The CTB Director responsibilities:The CTB Director responsibilities: –Provide scientific leadership and generate CTB activities to carry out the CTB mission –Manage and administer the CTB in a manner consistent with NOAA policies –Identify and allocate resources for support of CTB activities, including computing resources and sponsorship by the NOAA Climate Program Office –Establish Annual Operating Plans that map resources onto expected results –Work with the CTB Program Manager to coordinate activities across agencies –Prepare the annual report summarizing CTB activities and present the results to the OB

18 DEPUTY DIRECTOR The CTB Deputy Director shall be a NOAA Civil Servant selected by the NCEP Director in consultation with the Oversight Board.The CTB Deputy Director shall be a NOAA Civil Servant selected by the NCEP Director in consultation with the Oversight Board. The CTB Deputy Director responsibilities:The CTB Deputy Director responsibilities: –Assist the CTB Director and Program Managers in the day-to-day management of the CTB; –Work with NCEP Central Operations (NCO), the operational centers and PIs to negotiate the needs, milestones and timelines for transition to operations; –Work with the CTB Director and the operational centers, to identify climate-related data, climate forecast applications, and numerical/statistical modeling needs and coordinate these with the OB, CST and other test-bed directors to accomplish appropriate transitions to operational guidance products; –Assist the CTB Director in preparing the Annual Operating Plan (AOP) for transition activities, infrastructure, deliverables, schedule, and budget.

19 PROGRAM MANAGER The CTB Program Manager (PM) will be from NCPO. The functions of the PM are to:The CTB Program Manager (PM) will be from NCPO. The functions of the PM are to: –Work with CTB management and the SAB to determine science priorities and the scientific direction for competitive Announcements of Opportunity (AO’s); –Conduct the merit reviews for AO proposals and make funding decisions in consultation with CTB management; –Execute AO awards to external PI’s; –Work with CTB management to continue post-award management of external PI’s; –Coordinate with other NOAA programs (e.g. CDEP, IRI, RISA, CPPA, CLIVAR); –Work with the SAB to ensure coordination with National and International climate research programs; –Assist the CTB director in preparing the annual report to the OB.

20 CTB Roster Oversight BoardOversight Board –Dole (CDC) –Einaudi (NASA) –Laver (CPC) – Chair –Lord (EMC) –Leetmaa (GFDL) –Mooney (OGP) –Zebiak (IRI) –Appropriate representatives of other stakeholders Program ManagerProgram Manager –Ji (OGP) DirectorDirector –Higgins (CPC) Deputy DirectorDeputy Director –Pan (EMC)

21 CLIMATE SCIENCE TEAM Climate Science Team (CST)Climate Science Team (CST) The CST willThe CST will –Guide CTB activities at the working level; –Evaluate results of CTB activities; –Make recommendations to the CTB Director on computing resource usage priorities and computing access policies; –Meet monthly. Composed of technical experts from CPC, EMC, CDC and participating organizations.Composed of technical experts from CPC, EMC, CDC and participating organizations. The CST will have broad experience in the climate forecast problem, modeling issues, and product generation.The CST will have broad experience in the climate forecast problem, modeling issues, and product generation. CST membership is recommended by CTB Mgmt. and approved by the OB.CST membership is recommended by CTB Mgmt. and approved by the OB. 3 year rotation (except 3, 4 and 5 years initially to make rotation work)3 year rotation (except 3, 4 and 5 years initially to make rotation work)

22 CST Roster Climate Science TeamClimate Science Team –Mo (CPC) – Chair –Hoerling (CDC) –Moorthi (EMC) –Kirtman (COLA) –Kousky (CPC) –Schubert (GMAO) –Timofeyeva (NWS/OCCWS) –Saha (EMC) –Schemm (CPC) –Goddard (IRI)

23 SCIENCE ADVISORY BOARD Science Advisory Board (SAB)Science Advisory Board (SAB) Works with the broader climate community to provide independent advice on:Works with the broader climate community to provide independent advice on: –High-priority scientific challenges –Coordination with other programs (e.g., CLIVAR, GEWEX) Composed of scientists from National and International climate community including scientists from active Numerical Forecast Centers (NFC’s)Composed of scientists from National and International climate community including scientists from active Numerical Forecast Centers (NFC’s) Chaired by a member of non-NOAA climate communityChaired by a member of non-NOAA climate community Membership recommended by the SAB Chair and approved by the OBMembership recommended by the SAB Chair and approved by the OB 3 year rotation (except 3, 4 and 5 years initially to make rotation work)3 year rotation (except 3, 4 and 5 years initially to make rotation work) The SAB advises the CTB management and reports to the OBThe SAB advises the CTB management and reports to the OB Meet at least once per yearMeet at least once per year

24 FOCAL POINTS Focal Points (FP’s)Focal Points (FP’s) Focal Points (FPs) will be chosen for each model and product system supported by the CTB.Focal Points (FPs) will be chosen for each model and product system supported by the CTB. FPs will also be members of the CST.FPs will also be members of the CST. Since the CTB is closely associated with climate forecast system activities at both EMC and CPC, in addition to CPC forecast operations, FPs willSince the CTB is closely associated with climate forecast system activities at both EMC and CPC, in addition to CPC forecast operations, FPs will –coordinate experiments with CTB investigators; – train outside users and contractors in use of CTB-supported software, including forecast systems and products; –interface CTB product developers with forecast operations at CPC.

25 TECHNICAL ASSISTANTS Technical Assistants (TA’s) willTechnical Assistants (TA’s) will –support external users on NCEP’s Climate Computer; –support users of CTB software, including the NCEP CFS components by providing code, scripts, computing information, training and debugging services; –request new accounts as required; –work with NCEP Central Operations (NCO), manage on-line and archive storage, including file organization and quotas, and act as a liaison to NCO’s system administrators for CTB computing; –manage access to NCEP’s climate information, including calibration runs, and work with EMC system administrators to put CTB output on NOMADS servers; –provide IT support for CTB PC’s and Workstations; –maintain a CTB Web page for information about CTB projects, relevant data sets and research papers; –OGP is already supporting 1 CTB TA in FY05.

26 ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF A Secretary will handle office duties such as travel, logistics for visitors and staff, messaging and other communications.A Secretary will handle office duties such as travel, logistics for visitors and staff, messaging and other communications. A Program Assistant will work on presentations, program plans and other documents. A Program Assistant will work on presentations, program plans and other documents. CTB Administrative staff will coordinate with the NOAA Office of Global Programs as needed on matters of mutual concern, including Announcements of Opportunity and other financial and programmatic matters.CTB Administrative staff will coordinate with the NOAA Office of Global Programs as needed on matters of mutual concern, including Announcements of Opportunity and other financial and programmatic matters. In consultation with the NOAA Office of Global Programs, the CTB Director will determine the amount of resources required for the Administrative staff.In consultation with the NOAA Office of Global Programs, the CTB Director will determine the amount of resources required for the Administrative staff.

27 OTHER PERSONNEL Other associated CTB personnel will include:Other associated CTB personnel will include: 1. Visiting scientists and post-doctoral fellows from other organizations such as NSF, NCAR, universities and foreign organizations (e.g. international desks). These visitors will be supported by their home institutions or by grants sponsored by NOAA or other agencies. 2. Personnel assigned to the Center by the participating organizations (e.g. NFC’s). 3. Students.

28 CTB RESOURCES NCEP Contributions – –Computing (1/3 of the NCEP Red Computer) – –23 Redirected FTEs Infrastructure Support (software) – 4 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC) Infrastructure Support (management) – 0.5 (CPC) & 0.5 (EMC) CPC Scientists – 16 EMC Scientists – 1.5 NOAA Climate Office – –Support for Climate Products (e.g. CDC liaison; reanalysis) – –Augmentation funding for CTB Infrastructure (software, SA’s, TA’s) (1 TA in FY05) – –Funding for AO-driven competitive science projects (FY06+)

29 COMPUTING RESOURCES FY05-FY07: CTB will have one-third of the NOAA “Red” computer (reconfigured Frost / Snow); Usage will be driven by projects chosen by the CTB. White – Prediction Blue – Development Red – Project Driven (CTB, WRF, JCSDA) Access to the CTB computing resource will be on a “need to” basis, determined by projects under the CTB framework. The process for choosing CTB projects will be determined by the CTB management and CST.

30 FY05 MILESTONES Initiate CTB infrastructure (1Q) – –Establish the SAB, CST, and OB – –Establish policies for managing computing resources – –Establish requirements for CTB Proposals – –Establish the MM science team (peer reviewed) (3Q) Port the GFDL model onto CTB (4Q) FY06 AO (2Q)

31 POLICY ON MANAGING COMPUTING RESOURCES The CTB management will establish an overall policy on allocation of computing resources (with approval by the OB). – –Assemble the CST in early FY05 – –Charge the CST and CTB management in consultation with NCEP Central Operations to establish: protocols for managing CTB allocation on NOAA “Red” Research Supercomputer; protocols for experimental –vs- operational implementation (Note: computing resource for operational implementation should be outside CTB computing) guidelines for commitment of resources by participating groups. NCEP/NCO will provide the management of the computing resources (user access, accounting, etc) according to established policies. Share findings with the OB