MobiCom Presentation Athens, 26 February 2001 Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services: The MobiCom Project Dr. Nikos Mylonopoulos, MobiCom Scientific Coordinator Ms. Ioanna Constantiou, MobiCom Project Manager eLTRUN - The e-Business Research Center

MobiCom Presentation M-Commerce Market Drivers Mass Adoption Booming Wireline Internet Supplier Push New Billing Principles UMTS Licensing

MobiCom Presentation Mobile Communications Attributes Ubiquity Reachability Convenience Localisation Instant Connectivity Personalisation Today Tomorrow Security

MobiCom Presentation M-Commerce Obstacles Multitude of network technologies Complex Standardization Processes Infrastructure investments (replacements) Demand uncertainty Slower than anticipated WAP adoption

MobiCom Presentation M-Commerce Becomes Reality

MobiCom Presentation NTT DoCoMo’s iMode The Portal Benchmark 19.4 million subscribers as of 18 February content providers with specific apps. Banks, credit cards,insurance, tickets, news, travel, CDs, books, games, entertainment providers with HTML content Automatic translation into Compact HTML Messaging is key to achieve lock-in Revenues: 50% use premium services for $1-3, commission 9%, iMode monthly subscription, cellular subscription, airtime, more voice, games & banner ads

MobiCom Presentation NTT DoCoMo’s iMode The Portal Benchmark

MobiCom Presentation Project started 1 December 2000 Total duration:20 months Participating 9 partners: (4 universities, 3 mobile telcos, 2 eCommerce companies) MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services

MobiCom Presentation Consortium  Athens University of Economics and Business Project Coordinator – Expertise in new business models  The University of Cologne Expertise in e-commerce  University of Jyväskylä Expertise in technology convergence  University of Brighton Expertise in mobile telecommunications and scenario planning methodology MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services

MobiCom Presentation Consortium (Continued)  STET Hellas Telecommunications SA Mobile Telecommunications Operator  Sonera Corporation Mobile Telecommunications Operator  Mannesmann Pilotentwicklungsgesellschaft mbH Mobile Telecommunications Operator  Lambrakis Research Foundation Info-broker, internet portal – e-commerce applications and dissemination activities,  Verband der Vereine Creditreform e.V., Neuss Business Information and receivables management – e-commerce applications MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services

MobiCom Presentation MobiCom partners: Recognize that Mobile Commerce will play a significant role in the European Information Society. Argue that the value of Mobile Commerce for the economy and for the people will depend on: Characteristics of the technology and the standards adopted The structure of the technology and services markets The role of technology providers, mobile operators and service merchants The needs of consumers and the nature of demand Agree that now (that the mobile markets are being shaped) is the time to plan ahead examining future scenarios and seeking consensus among the key players. Impetus for Research on Mobile Commerce

MobiCom Presentation Outcomes Current trends and developments in mobile telecommunications and electronic commerce Analysis of new mobile services and mobile business architectures Scenarios for business models, market dynamics, social implications Feasibility studies and business plans Analysis of Mobile Commerce diffusion and adoption MobiForum MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services

MobiCom Presentation Analysis of Mobile Telecommunications Industry Phase 1 Sectoral analysis of Ecommerce services Phase 2 Analysis of the convergence between Mobile Telecoms and Ecommerce: New Services and Applications Phase 3 Mobile Commerce Evolution Scenarios Policy and Regulation New market dynamics New methods of work New business models MobiForum – Interactive Platform At a glance MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services

MobiCom Presentation Beneficiaries and Benefits  Mobile Operators A learning experience generating insight into alternative strategic directions for Mobile Commerce. Tangible feasibility studies and business plans.  E-Commerce Merchants Understanding the breadth of possibilities for new value added services. Market readiness information. Feasibility studies and business plans.  The European Commission Scenarios of new market development and dynamics. Assessment of socioeconomic impacts. Policy recommendations.  University partners Strengthening and widening existing expertise in e-commerce and e-business. Sharing and transferring methodological and research knowledge. MobiCom Evolution Scenarios for Emerging Mobile Commerce Services

MobiCom Presentation They believed it… (Schoemaker, 1995) –Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 I think there is a world market for about five computers –Ken Olson, President, Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977 There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home

MobiCom Presentation Scenario Planning Methodology Key approach throughout the project Avoids forecasting in a complex environment –Driving ahead by looking at the rear view mirror Explores alternative futures –Manage the present from the future

MobiCom Presentation Special Interest Groups Objective –To open participation to scenario planning to a broad range of stakeholders Expectations –To contribute the the debate Benefits –To have your voice heard to the European Commission Means –Local meetings, European Worshops, MobiForum

MobiCom Presentation Special Interest Groups Join the MobiCom SIG if: You are mobile operator You are mobile infrastructure developer or provider You offer mobile services to your customers You develop third party mobile applications and services You are involved in the standardization and policy processes