Internet Futures
Here I am channelling Anders Rockstrom of Telia Sonera, whose presentation at the.se event in October 2006 had a profound impact on me – he stated the truth so clearly and simply it was an irresistible message. More folk should hear what he has to say – so this is your opportunity! Ive made some changes to match whats been happening since 2006, but I think that the essential message remains the same – thanks Anders! Geoff
Internet Futures
purpose: share some musings about this industry and its future think about some of the major factors that will shape our future
why This industry has a rich history
why This industry has a rich history …of making poor guesses
why This industry has a rich history …of making poor guesses and being taken by surprise!
why This industry has a rich history …of making poor guesses and being taken by surprise! could we do a better job?
One approach: 1.Observe the situation and whats happening 2.Believe what we see 3.Understand where this may lead us and what options may be presented on the way
User forces on the Market From radio to tv to ? From telephony to chat to mashups to p2p to ?
Revenue Profile
How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
Service Profile How to fill the gap of the Internets revenue leak
Over the top apps
Over the top apps
Over the top apps Content is a commodity application that users do rather than a valuable service that is delivered by service providers
QoS Network VPNs IMS
QoS Network VPNs IMS
Web enabled user generated content facebook doppler youtube wikipedia QoS Network VPNs IMS
Web enabled user generated content QoS Network VPNs IMS facebook doppler youtube wikipedia
ngn ims
Infrastructure roles
fuelling the usage growth fire
usage = scaling
fuelling the usage growth fire bandwidth switching routing addressing usage = scaling storage delivering power heat dissipation memory speed silicon density storage efficiency Please send heaps more…. fibre routes
fuelling the usage growth fire bandwidth switching routing addressing usage = scaling storage delivering power heat dissipation memory speed silicon density storage efficiency But is bigger always cheaper ? Please send heaps more…. fibre routes
fuelling the usage growth fire bandwidth switching routing addressing usage = scaling storage delivering power heat dissipation memory speed silicon density storage efficiency But is bigger always cheaper ? and what happens when its not? Please send heaps more…. fibre routes
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins No product differentiation Low barriers to entry Deregulation and competition Valued services are overlays to the network
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins No product differentiation Low barriers to entry Deregulation and competition Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Mobile telephony Local Access monopolies Valued services are overlays to the network
Packet pushing is a commodity utility activity Low margins No product differentiation Low barriers to entry Deregulation and competition Traditional revenue streams are vaporizing Wired telephony Business data products Mobile telephony Local Access monopolies Investors are getting very nervous about telcos Cost of capital is rising Shareholder returns need to stay high Consumers are fleeing legacy telcos in the face of price gouging No residual expertise left in-house Valued services are overlays to the network Business todays telco pressure points …
? commodity utility network operation network high capacity packet pushing
? commodity utility network operation User-centric applications, not network-centric services Value shift up the protocol stack network high capacity packet pushing
? We are reinventing this industry on the fly Reinvention: new and different business models commodity utility network operation User-centric applications, not network-centric services Value shift up the protocol stack network high capacity packet pushing
thank you