1 Interconnecting the Cyberinfrastructure Robert Feuerstein, Ph.D.

2 Intercity and Transoceanic Networks

G DWDM Channels per fiber pair NZ-DSF, Corning E-LEAF fiber Dispersion compensation at amplifiers BER < Gateway /Regen G, 10G, 10GigE Waves 100km Erbium Amplifiers Gateway /Regen 600 km Maximum Amplifier Site Long Distance Transport ADM or Optical Switch for Protected Private Line Services

4 Level 3 Built a Physically Diverse Network  “Greenfield” Network built by Level 3 buried 42” to top of conduits  Network ring topology built for reliability  Uniform equipment and capacity availability makes ring management possible No Network Spurs No Non-Diverse City Laterals All diverse Gateway entrance facilities 95%+ diverse Gateway Building risers

5 Network Reliability Example Network: A 20,000 mile Long Haul network, 50 metro markets with 12 mile metro rings ≈ 1 fiber cut per week: ≈ 1 fiber cut per week: 20 card failures per week: 20 card failures per week: Long haul: 2-3 cuts per 1000 miles per year Metro: 13 cuts per 1000 miles per year 45-50% of all FCC reportable outages in USA attributable to fiber cuts ( ) Typical electronics/optics card failure time is around 25 years, 20,000 mile 200Gb network will have around 25,000 cards. (Not all will cause a service outage)

6 Diverse Un-Protected Wavelengths: 2 x 10G capacity Wavelength Services Diversely Routed Wavelengths can be used for Customer Provided Protection Washington D.C. New Orleans WT Cards PRIMARY WAVELENGTH PATH SECONDARY WAVELENGTH PATH RING 5 RING 3 Nashville Atlanta WT Cards

7 All previous comments as Level 3 representative Disclaimer: All the following comments do not express the views of Level 3. The following comments express the views of Robert Feuerstein. They apply to the next 5 years.

8 Dark Fiber Metro Networks “short” distances  single channel  multiple channels “long” distances  single channel  multiple channels To WDM or not? Long Haul Networks Do you need 100G?

9 Protected Wavelength Service Diverse Waves provide transparent SONET overhead bytes for protection switching by customer router or ADM Diverse Waves provide full access to all bandwidth; e.g. two x 10G Protected Waves basically switch on loss of light or lots of bit errors Protected Waves built end-to-end with 1+1 protection Protected Waves provide access to one x 10G Protected Waves will cost more than two x 10G waves So, does anybody really want Protected Waves?

10 Wavelengths on Demand: Layer 1 It’s NOT gonna happen, here’s why: Carrier must purchase multiple wavelength switching boxes: Big $$ Carrier must install Wavelengths throughout network:Big $$ Carrier must develop support systems to enable this product: Big $$ Carrier must train sales and operations staff to support new product Carrier must price it low enough to generate customer interest  Carrier has to over-subscribe Wavelengths to enable dynamic provisioning and reasonable economics  So no guarantee that BW will be there exactly when customer wants it For commercial customers, when they want bandwidth, THEY WANT BANDWIDTH! So, is there demand for this product?

11 “Wavelengths” on Demand: Layer 2/3 Maybe: here’s why: Ethernet/IP switches can support bursting of traffic Ethernet with MPLS, and IP switches, can provide protection Ethernet/IP switches perform stat muxing that can lower costs Carriers only need to add a few extra wavelengths to existing ones Carriers already have Ethernet and IP switches: minimal new training/support or systems development needed Carriers can provision oversubscription in a sensible way to provide economical usage based pricing

:Alexander Graham Bell invents “electrical speech machine” Early 1900’s: Lots of overhead wires and operators on roller skates Early 1900’s: Development of “Ma Bell”, where “Ma” is short for Monopoly 1982: Judge Green and Breakup of Ma Bell 1996: Telecommunications Act : 100’s of Billions of $$ invested in telecom : Telecom crash 2000 – 2005: Major price cuts in telecom services, 100’s of bankruptcies So what’s next? A Short History of Telecom

13 Optical Transport Services Pricing Trends Prices in 2005 are about 10% of what they were in 2000 Prices in 2010 will be ±10% compared to today Because 10x the bandwidth on the network means: –More real estate (large inflation) –More electricity (large inflation) –More equipment(modest price cuts per box) –Higher Right of Way fees –More equipment maintenance/service fees (modest cuts, per box) –More people for more work (modest increase, per person) All of these force Service Provider costs to rise with increased bandwidth demand, even with smaller, less expensive, lower power consumption equipment and more efficient systems If prices continue to fall dramatically in the short term, then bankruptcies will ensue, followed by consolidation and price increases  The era of collapsing bandwidth prices is coming to an end

14 Summary Level 3 is a high reliability partner for Dark fiber and Wavelengths Dark Fiber is a reasonable choice in many cases Protected wavelengths make no sense Wavelengths on demand Layer 1: No prospects commercially Wavelengths on demand Layer 2/3: Possible Wavelength price cuts are coming to an end