ОПАСНОСТИ МАГНИТНЫХ БУРЬ И ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ МИРОВОЙ СЕТИ НЕЙТРОННЫХ МОНИТОРОВ И МЮОННЫХ ТЕЛЕСКОПОВ ДЛЯ ПРЕДСКАЗАНИЯ ПОДХОДА К ЗЕМЛЕ МОЩНЫХ МЕЖПЛАНЕТНЫХ УДАРНЫХ ВОЛН И КОРОНАЛЬНЫХ ИЗВЕРЖЕНИЙ МАСС, ВЫЗЫВАЮЩИХ БОЛЬШИЕ МАГНИТНЫЕ БУРИ ЛЕВ ДОРМАН (1, 2) 1. ИЗРАИЛЬСКИЙ ЦЕНТР КОСМИЧЕСКИХ ЛУЧЕЙ И КОСМИЧЕСКОЙ ПОГОДЫ 2. ИЗМИРАН, ОТДЕЛ КОСМИЧЕСКИХ ЛУЧЕЙ

THE MATTER OF PROBLEM 1. WHY MAGNETIC STORMS ARE DANGEROUS ? 2. HOW TO CORRECT DATA OF NEUTRON MONITORS AND MUON TELESCOPES ON LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL EFFECTS IN REAL TIME SCALE? 3. WHAT PRECURSORY EFFECTS CAN BE USED FOR FORECASTING ? 4. THE FINAL AIM: HOW TO ORGANIZE THE WORK OF WORLD-WIDE NETWORK OF NEUTRON MONITORS AND MUON TELESCOPES FOR CONTINUE FORECASTING OF DANGEROUS MAGNETIC STORMS

1. WHY MAGNETIC STORMS ARE DANGEROUS ?

2. HOW TO CORRECT DATA OF NEUTRON MONITORS AND MUON TELESCOPES ON LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL EFFECTS IN REAL TIME SCALE? 1. For neutron component – mostly barometric effect 2. For muon component –mostly barometric effect + temperature effect 3. Data on air pressure 4. Satellite data over the globe of temperature vertical distribution each 6 hours 5. Using ground one hour data and Kaminer’s method – obtain one hour data for temperature vertical distribution

Barometric coefficients for muon component

For any muon telescope with some zenith-azimuth sensitivity diagram

Temperature coefficients negative and positive (left scale), and total for Moscow in June (full curves 1) and in January (dashed curves 2)

For zenith angle Z = 0  and observations at sea level

For zenith angle Z = 45  and observations at sea level

For zenith angle Z = 60  and observations at sea level

For zenith angle Z = 75  and observations at sea level

For any muon telescope with some zenith-azimuth sensitivity diagram

3. WHAT PRECURSORY EFFECTS CAN BE USED FOR FORECASTING ? It is well known that big geomagnetic storms have an adverse influence on technological devices and radio wave propagation. Major geomagnetic storms, associated with Forbush decreases (FDs) in cosmic ray (CR) intensity, have also been found to increase the incidence of some diseases (in particular, the frequency of myocardial infarction increases by 13 ± 1.4%). We discuss here three phenomena that can be used for forecasting FDs: 1) CR intensity increase, of non solar CR origin, occurring before sudden commencement of a major geomagnetic storm connected with FD (preincrease effect), 2) CR intensity decrease before FD (predecrease effect), 3) change in CR fluctuations before FD. First we investigate several such events by the global survey method for the years We analyse the behaviour of the isotropic CR intensity and of the 3-dimensional vector of CR anisotropy before FDs, as well as results on CR scintillation of 1-hour and 5-minute data.

8 July 1958

Distribution of CR intensity predecrease as a function of UT and direction of asymptotic cones for the event of 21 August 1956, for several stations (for each station the direction of asymptotic cones changes with the Earth's rotation). The predecrease effect can be due to a magnetic connection of the Earth with regions (moving from the Sun) with reduced CR density; this lower density can be observed at the Earth along the actual direction of magnetic field lines.

Using CR fluctuations