Outlook for developing country growth improved considerably in the last six months Outlook for developing country growth improved considerably in the last.

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Presentation transcript:

Outlook for developing country growth improved considerably in the last six months Outlook for developing country growth improved considerably in the last six months Momentum of global trade and production strong; financial and commodity markets varied Momentum of global trade and production strong; financial and commodity markets varied Developing country recovery unlikely to eclipse pre-crisis trends; prospects differ markedly across developing regions Developing country recovery unlikely to eclipse pre-crisis trends; prospects differ markedly across developing regions Global risks are more balanced (some up- side), but oil price a current concern Global risks are more balanced (some up- side), but oil price a current concern Key Messages

GDP Growth: Industrial and Developing Regions, (percent) Source: World Bank baseline, March World OECD Developing Countries Forecast

GDP Growth: G-7 and Developing Countries ( percent year-over-year) Source: DECPG baseline (March 2000) and GEP (November 1999) G-7 countriesDeveloping countries

Per capita growth distribution by developing country population (percentage of developing country population excluding China, India) Source: DECPG baseline, March billion people 140 million people

Convergence of industrial country growth rates in the early 2000s (percent) Source: DECPG projections, March Notes: * North America: United States and Canada; ** Asia-Pacific: Japan, Australia and New Zealand. North America* Euro Area Asia-Pacific**

Volatility of Growth: Major economic areas Note: /1 regression of region growth rate on world growth rate. Source: Development Prospects Group

U.S. consumer, producer and import prices, (3-month/3-month annualized change in percent ) Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics. Producer prices CPI U.S. import prices

U.S. and Euro-Area short term interest rates, ( percent ) Source: Datastream / Euro-stat.. U.S. 3-month CD rate Euro-area average 3 month money market Fed Funds

High-income countries’ import volume growth (percent, 3 month/3 month, saar) Source: Datastream and DECPG staff estimates. Asian NIEs OECD

World Trade: The Context for Developing Country Exports, (percent) Source: DECPG baseline, March Forecast Developing exports OECD imports Developing imports

Oil and non-oil prices, (US$/bbl for oil, index 1990=100 for others Source: DECPG, World Bank

Current Account Balances for Industrial Countries, (percent of Industrial countries’ GDP) Source: DECPG, Baseline forecast, March G-7 Other Industrial OECD

Latin America East Asia Europe and Central Asia (Basis points) Regional secondary market spreads on international bond issues

Gross capital market flows as a ratio of GDP and spreads on EMBI Source: Euromoney, IMF, DECPG staff estimates Capital Market Flows/GDP EMBI Basis pointspercent

“Financial misery index” for selected emerging markets, June March 2000 (mean of percentage changes in currency, stock market, interest rate) Worse off Better off Source: DECPG

Industrial production: developing regions (3mma, %y/y) Note: Latest data Asia (December), CEE (Dec), Developing (Dec), LAC (Dec). Source: Datastream and DECPG staff estimates. CEE East Asia LAC All Developing

GDP Growth: East Asia, Latin America and the Transition Economies, (percent) Source: World Bank baseline, March Transition Economies East Asia Latin America Forecast

GDP Growth: South Asia, MENA and Sub-Saharan Africa, (percent) Source: World Bank baseline, March MENA South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Forecast

... to a ‘soft landing’ in the United States... from fiscal stimulus to private-demand led growth in Japan... to healthier financial and corporate sectors in East Asia... to a medium-term equilibrium price of oil Global Risks: Four Transitions

High Oil price Scenario: GDP Growth for World Regions (difference (-) in growth rates from baseline) Source: DECPG. Simulation of $30/bbl in 2000, $25/bbl in 2001 (Oxford Economics) model. Results validated against simulations prepared by OECD, JP Morgan and other analysts.

Industrial countries’ import volume growth (percent, 3 month/3 month, saar) Source: Datastream and DECPG staff estimates. *Goods and services as compiled by Eurostat. Japan United States Europe*