演講者： 指導老師：林娟娟教授

outline  Abstract  Introduction  Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment  Model development  Simulation results and discussions  Conclusions

 原因 ◦ 經營型態的改變 ◦ CPFR 在深度合作中已成為供應鏈中重要的部份  方式 ◦ 模擬系統 ◦ CPFR 的五種方案  結果 ◦ 供應鏈中的零售商可由 buyer-driven 改為 supplier- driven

 新興策略： Quick Response (QR) Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)  Mentzer - supply chain collaborative 之效能  Simatupang and Sridharan – collaborative performance

 IT 的效用 ◦ 提供更短的 lead time ◦ 更少的 batch size  資訊交流的其他因素 ◦ Organizational culture ◦ the effect of trust ◦ Teamwork ◦ reward systems

 CPFR 有提供合作程序的指導手冊  其同時內容包含： ◦ 合作程序的細節 ◦ 合作夥伴的複雜程度  依然不被廣大採用以及研究的原因： ◦ 缺乏足夠的資訊

 VICS( 美國產業共用標準 ) 定義 CPFR – a collection of new business practices  和舊有的結盟策略相較： ◦ 強力的商業連結計畫 ◦ 預測 ◦ 補充  食品雜貨： ◦ 較短的商品週期 ◦ 海外生產

 CPFR 的三大步驟： planning, forecasting, and replenishment  The details ◦ Capability of partners - 夥伴能力 ◦ The role of the supply chain – 供應鏈中的角色 ◦ The information source – 資訊來源 ◦ Consensus between partners – 夥伴的共識

 Model can be divided into four scenarios

 The three stages are further divided into nine steps 1. Develop collaboration arrangement 2. Create joint business plan 3. Create sales forecast 4. Identify exceptions for sales forecast 5. Resolve/collaborate on exception items for sales forecast 6. Create order forecast 7. Identify exceptions for order forecast 8. Resolve/collaborat e on exception items for order forecast 9. Generate order

 CPFR has some typical benefits such as: ◦ Increased profitability – 增加收益 ◦ Reduced inventory – 減少存貨 ◦ Shortage cycle time – 較短的週期 ◦ More efficient transportation planning – 有效的運送 ◦ Decrease of shortages – 減少短缺 ◦ Better promotion planning – 更好地提升計畫 ◦ Improved customer service – 改進顧客服務

 三個促成要素： ◦ Information sharing – 資訊分享 ◦ Decision synchronization – 決策的同步 ◦ Incentive alignment – 誘因整合  由 Simatupang and Sridharan 證實

 The main inhibitors ◦ Lack of visibility – 可見性 ◦ Lack of trust – 信任 ◦ Lack of collaborative – 合作  Improved collaboration ◦ Stabilizing objectives ◦ Broadening the complexity and scope with mutual trust ◦ Information sharing

 McCarthy and Golicic 所提出以 CPFR 為基礎改進 S.C. 的方法： ◦ Internal forecasting process auditing – 預測內部查帳 ◦ Top management support – 提高管理層的支援 ◦ Collaborative forecasting training – 加強合作的預測 ◦ Initially targeting key companies – 定立開始的目標 ◦ Creating a single demand projection – 單一需求預測

Collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment (inhibitors and enablers of CPFR implementation)  Holmstrom etal : 預測是供應者的重點行動  零售業的管理程序：預測的基礎  POS 系統：提供連接，加強預測

 定義 model 有五種方案  A non-collaboration model and CPFR scenarios A-D  ARENA is a powerful discrete-event commercial software simulator  Supply chain structure ：為一二階層的 model

 VICS 所說的 CPFR 的基本步 驟

 Retailer: 面對不同 customer 的 demand rate ◦ 其收入與訂購有一個公認的存貨政策  Manufacturer: 接收 retailer 的訂單後開始動作 ◦ 依供應者所提供的原料，製造公司有了收益及產品計劃； 原物料可為無限的產能

 二階層 model 中 S.C 的參數 : ◦ Customer demand rate – 顧客需求等級 ◦ Lead time – 生產週期 ◦ Inventory policy - 存貨規則  (s,S) inventory policy ◦ Exception criteria – 例外原則  Sales forecast exception  Order forecast exception

 The following in formation may be shared between partners ◦ Promotion information – 促銷計畫 ◦ Sales information – 銷售資訊 ◦ Inventory information – 存貨資訊 ◦ Capacity information – 生產能力

 The lead sides for sales forecast, order forecast, and order generation—Table1

 The information sharing settings of the five scenarios—Table2

 各效能所表示的意思： ◦ Average service level ◦ Average fulfillment rate ◦ Average order cycle time ◦ Total system cost  Inventory holding cost  Shortage cost  Order cost

 Performance of non-collaboration scenario  Retailer’s sales,order forecasts are based on its own data.  Generate large increase in shortage costs& order cycle time.  Decrease fulfillment rate for both retailer & manufacturer.

 Performance of non-collaboration scenario

 Performance of CPFR scenario A  shared: promotion,sales information  retailer lead-->sales forecast, order forecast, order generation  Without sharing product capacity, the stock- out and order time in the manufacturer side increase to a high level.

 Performance of CPFR scenario A

 Performance of CPFR scenario B  shared: promotion, sales, inventory, capacity  retailer lead --> sales forecast  manufacturer lead --> order forecast & order generation  Manufacturer can increase the replenishment to the retailer.  outsourcing

 Performance of CPFR scenario B

 Performance of CPFR scenario C  shared: promotion, inventory information  Similar to scenario A, but order cycle time and shortage cost is better than A.  Manufacturer can replenishment to the retailer while production capacity limitation is met.

 Performance of CPFR scenario C

 Performance of CPFR scenario D  shared: inventory, capacity information  manufacturer lead all. ( sales forecast, order forecasts, order generation)  Without sharing promotion calendar, the reduce of service level and fulfillment rate for retailer due to manufacturer’s lowered replenishment.

 Performance of CPFR scenario D

 Average system service level B>C>A>D>non  B >A,C--> capacity not shared  C>A --> manufacturer lead order generation in (C)  D --> no promotion calendar

 Average system fulfillment rate B>C>A>D>non  D -->retailer was not shared promotion calendar with trading partner.

 Average system cycle time non>A>C>D>B  A.C --> non-sharing of production capacity, and order fulfillment is restricted by capacity level.  D --> manufacturer made replenishment decision.

 Total system cost non> D>A>C>B  C -->manufacturer made replenishment decision, which decreased shortage cost.  B -->shared the most information.

 Fiala&Sahin: 供應鏈間提供越多資訊，其產生的合 作效能也會越高  Holmstrom: 大量合作關係對夥伴間是有好處的  Holmstrom: 供應鏈中的合作關係是依賴在內部及 外部事務的整合  Soliman: 會受到其它變因也會影響，貿易夥伴的壓 力﹑競爭者的壓力﹑夥伴間的信任﹑會影響是否是使內 部企業系統的意念。  Fliedner:ERP 系統可以連接跨企業的夥伴

 In practice, supply chain collaboration usually starts with uncomplicated scenario due to low mutual trust.  Large retailer such as ”Wal-Mart”, are able to make planning, forecasting and replenishment decisions.  Company in Taiwan A->B,C,D

 Further results  Perturbed some parameters: (table10) Customer demand rate ↑ Lead time from supplier to manufacturer ↑ Production capacity↑  Result: (table11) Total system cost ↑ due to customer demand CPFR-B is still better scenario.

 Further results  Perturbed some parameters: (table12) Unit holding ↑ Shortage costs ↓  Results: (table13) Cost parameters may impact on the total system cost. CPFR-B&D are better scenarios.

 CPFR integrate internal and external business activities.  Mutual trust plays an essential role.  Knowledge sharing, technology sharing, risk sharing, revenue sharing

 Limitation We Analyzed based on simulation, not on surveys provided by enterprises.

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