Ecological processes in a changing climate: winners and losers Third US GLOBEC Pan Regional Workshop 20 February 2009 J. Runge, presenter

Runge Davis Bograd Capotondi Gangopadhya Juanes Miller Plourde Smith Tynan Group Members

Three time frames 1) What happened in this program? (what we learned in the past 15 yrs). What do you want to highlight in this theme? 2) Right now: what are recommendations for Pan Regional Synthesis? What do we want to do in PRS and see as outcomes? 3) The future: 5 years from now what do we want GLOBEC to have done: GLOBEC’s legacy, its impact on future activities

The climate drivers Warming Stratification Ice Extent Winds (upwelling, transport, mixing) Advection Increased CO2 and ocean acidification

Second Pan Regional Synthesis Workshop

What we have learned: ecological processes winners and losers How to know and predict “winners and losers” Modeling tools: development of coupled physical biological modeling Advances in use of indicators to forecast ecosystem processes Data base on abundance, distributions and processes for future reference Advances in tools for measurement (acoustic, video systems, etc.)

What we have learned: Phenology Timing and magnitude of primary production - NW Atlantic: stratification due to low salinity and spring and fall blooms - CC: Upwelling events -NEP: Freshwater inputs due to shifts in GoA low -Southern Ocean: effects of warming on ice extent

What we have learned: ecological processes winners and losers Primary Production: changes in species composition – Shifts to dinoflagellate from diatom dominance in NW Atlantic – Shifts to smaller autotrophs in deep ocean. N fixers gain in high CO2 environment – Shifts towards diatoms in waters off Peru – Don’t really know impact of warming and CO2 in high latitude seasonal environments

What we have learned: Processes involving zooplankton Zooplankton diversity and population dynamics – Changes in cold and warm water copepod species assemblages in upwelling areas off W. Coast – Increases in small copepod abundance related to low salinity and spring and fall blooms in NWA – Changes in timing of life cycles – Shifts from krill to copepod and salp dominance in SO food webs

What we have learned: Recruitment processes – Salmon recruitment processes: eg. Coho salmon and cold water zooplankton in w. coast upwelling – Haddock and cod indices related to zooplankton indices in NW Atlantic) – Transport of larval stages to nursery areas – Development of the modeling tools to integrate complexity of processes for prediction of environmental influences on recruitment with a mechanistic understandin

Present: outcomes of the Pan Regional Synthesis Development of coupled physical biological modeling to forecast climate forcing of species population dynamics Development of ecosystem indicators: Forecasts of climate forcing on ecological processes and indicators Approaches to understanding and presenting uncertainty Synthesis data sets compiled and archived

Present: Synthesis of the species centric and trophic centric approaches End to end modeling: forecasts of changes to trophic structure of ecosystems A synthesis of the two approaches: how to use the coupled models to inform climate forcing on E2E trophic structure How do species matter: the impacts of changes of key target species in wasp-waist type trophic structures (e.g. Calanus and herring in NWA ecoystems; role of lipids) Steele et al. Globec International Newsletter. Volume 14 (1). April, 2008

Present: outcomes of the Pan Regional Synthesis How to facilitate coordination, intercomparisons, syntheses among projects in Pan Regional Synthesis? Are annual workshops enough? How to document the GLOBEC legacy?

The future: The GLOBEC legacy Coupled physical biological modelling as a tool for mechanistic understanding of climate forcing on ecological processes Forecasting abilities including uncertainty Forecasts and ecological indicators for future testing: winners and losers Foundation for future large scale programs: e.g. IMBER/BASIN/ CAMEO/ICED/CLIVAR

Ecosystem approach to management management policy precautionary principleIncluding oceanography and earth system science the fishing communities Modeling integrates knowledge across scientific disciplines. Need for collaboration among disciplines. Simulations provide predictions that can be tested against data The computer as a medium for communicating to non-experts and experts the complex synthesis of system knowledge (Adapted from E.O. Wilson, 1998) GLOBEC Legacy:

The future: The GLOBEC legacy: how to collaborate in multidiscplinary research Respect Willingness to share Cooperation Communication