The ‘Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge’ “ Getting the genie back in the bottle” Jillian Anable, UKERC and The Centre for Transport Policy, The Robert Gordon University Paige Mitchell, The Slower Speeds Initiative Russell Layberry, UKERC and The Environmental Change Institute, The University of Oxford

The perfect policy? Guaranteed carbon reduction Guaranteed carbon reduction Significant carbon reduction Significant carbon reduction Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) Equitable Equitable Can be implemented now Can be implemented now Cost effective Cost effective Maximises efficiency in the system Maximises efficiency in the system Locks in the benefits of other policies Locks in the benefits of other policies Politically deliverable Politically deliverable

The UK Climate Change Programme 6.8 MtC savings from the transport sector by MtC savings from the transport sector by 2010 Total emissions from this sector still way above 1990 levels Total emissions from this sector still way above 1990 levels

UK Climate Change Programme: Transport policies Abandoned Underperforming ? ? Net savings = 1MtC

UK Climate Change Programme: Transport policies + ?

Speed Reduction and Enforcement

The perfect policy? Guaranteed carbon reduction Guaranteed carbon reduction Significant carbon reduction Significant carbon reduction Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) Equitable Equitable Can be implemented now Can be implemented now Cost effective Cost effective Maximises efficiency in the system Maximises efficiency in the system Locks in the benefits of other policies Locks in the benefits of other policies Politically deliverable Politically deliverable

The Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge Entry Two: A model of carbon emissions savings by 2010 from: (i) enforcing the current top 70 mph speed limit on motorways and dual carriageways for all 4-wheeled vehicles AND (ii) reducing this to 60 mph

Guaranteed carbon savings Diesel Euro II cars (1.4 – 2l) emit 14% less CO 2 at 70mph than at 80mph

The potential to save carbon 4-wheeled vehicles on 70 mph roads = 41% road transport CO 2 & 8% of all CO 2 Ca. 50% of cars exceed the speed limit on motorways

Model assumptions Motorways and dual carriageways - all 4- wheeled vehicles Motorways and dual carriageways - all 4- wheeled vehicles Traffic growth figures based on NTM midpoint projections for interurban roads to 2010 Traffic growth figures based on NTM midpoint projections for interurban roads to 2010 No knock-on savings in demand or car purchasing No knock-on savings in demand or car purchasing Average emissions coefficients reflecting: Average emissions coefficients reflecting: (i) fleet technology mix for each year (ii) relevant speed distribution (2004 data) (ii) relevant speed distribution (2004 data) All distance previously driven above 70mph or 60mph redistributed to highest remaining band All distance previously driven above 70mph or 60mph redistributed to highest remaining band

Significant carbon savings % reduction in carbon emissions from the transport sector in Per Annum carbon savings (MtC) Total Cumulative savings in mph enforced mph enforced

UK Climate Change Programme: Transport policies + speed limit Equals 15-29% of the total savings expected from the transport sector by 2010 (1 Mtc)

Additional carbon savings 1.Reduction in traffic growth 2.Maximising capacity by improving traffic flow 3.Rationalising car design

Reduction in traffic growth Additional CO 2 reductions under a scenario of ‘moderate’ traffic restraint: 3% (70 mph) – 7% (60 mph)

Improved traffic flow Highway capacity is a function of speed Highway capacity is a function of speed Traffic ‘smoothing’ (e.g. M25) Traffic ‘smoothing’ (e.g. M25) Fewer crashes and disruption Fewer crashes and disruption Effect on driving style - combine with ecodriving and in car guidance systems Effect on driving style - combine with ecodriving and in car guidance systems Renders motorway widening schemes unnecessary? Renders motorway widening schemes unnecessary?

Rationalising car design Capping speed limits = a system boundary Capping speed limits = a system boundary Safer roads - set the context for lighter, less powerful and more efficient vehicles Safer roads - set the context for lighter, less powerful and more efficient vehicles Speed enforcement - encourage voluntary uptake of speed limiters Speed enforcement - encourage voluntary uptake of speed limiters Average top speed of best performing models is 102mph Average top speed of best performing models is 102mph

Other benefits Early win / certainty – no technological innovation required Early win / certainty – no technological innovation required

Why the urgency?

CO 2 concentrations and average temperature change ‘Safe’ concentration has already been exceeded ‘Safe’ concentration has already been exceeded Concentration rising by 2ppmv per year Concentration rising by 2ppmv per year Stabilisation targets and temperature rise: Stabilisation level Temperature change to 2100 o C 400ppm 1.2 – ppm 1.3 – ppm 1.5 – 3.6

Other benefits Early win / certainty – no technological innovation required Early win / certainty – no technological innovation required Safety benefits – 60mph limit would halve deaths on motorways Safety benefits – 60mph limit would halve deaths on motorways Cost effectiveness – immediate carbon savings are cheaper = net benefit to society Cost effectiveness – immediate carbon savings are cheaper = net benefit to society Equity – reduce the differential between the fast and the slow, the rich and the poor Equity – reduce the differential between the fast and the slow, the rich and the poor

Public Acceptability Least intrusive measure Least intrusive measure Egalitarian Egalitarian Straightforward Straightforward Direct benefits – fuel savings and operating costs Direct benefits – fuel savings and operating costs Time penalties (if any) no worse than other measures Time penalties (if any) no worse than other measures Improved journey reliability Improved journey reliability M25 trials – 68% of drivers happy M25 trials – 68% of drivers happy

The perfect policy? Guaranteed carbon reduction Guaranteed carbon reduction Significant carbon reduction Significant carbon reduction Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) Other significant benefits (e.g. safety) Equitable Equitable Can be implemented now Can be implemented now Cost effective Cost effective Maximises efficiency in the system Maximises efficiency in the system Locks in the benefits of other policies Locks in the benefits of other policies Politically deliverable Politically deliverable

A systems approach

Conclusions NO case for not enforcing 70mph NO case for not enforcing 70mph 60 mph would bring significant benefits (29% of 60 mph would bring significant benefits (29% of Too good to ignore Too good to ignore Need a comprehensive Need a comprehensive review of the options What’s your excuse? What’s your excuse?