ENVISION TOMORROW UPDATES AND INDICATORS

What is Envision Tomorrow?  Suite of planning tools:  GIS Analysis Tools  Prototype Builder  Return on Investment (ROI) model  Scenario Builder  Extension for ArcGIS  Performance Models

Why Use Scenario Planning?  Weigh choices against consequences  Test policy options quickly  Prepare for uncertainty  Develop strategies to optimize outcomes

Scenario Building Process Create Building & Development Types Scenario Development Evaluation Baseline Analysis

Regional “Balance” Analysis  Jobs-Housing balance impacts transportation  GIS tool to identify imbalanced areas  Candidates for detailed scenarios

Redevelopment Readiness Analysis  A tool to assess which parcels within a study area may be candidates for redevelopment in the short term.  Two methods:  Low Hanging Fruit: isolate the bottom quartile of total value per acre (land + improvement)  Timing: estimate the parcels that are ready today, or within 5-10 years based on the age of the structure and the value of the land and a depreciation schedule.

Building-Level Financial Analysis  Envision Tomorrow Prototype Builder  Estimate ROI (Return on Investment) based on local costs and rents/sales prices  Gap Financing Tools

Test Financial Performance of Zoning Alternatives BaselineOptimalChange Height4 Stories6 Stories+2 Parking Spaces % Land Used43,000 Square Ft 0% Density31 DU / Acre63 DU / Acre+103% Floor Area Ratio % Project Value$17.3 Million$23.5 Million+35% Unit Cost$519,272$369,590-29% Baseline 4 story Mixed Use with existing parking Optimal 6 story Mixed Use with lower parking requirements

Create Prototype Buildings Why start with buildings?  Easily modeled & lots of existing data  Density and Design  Rents and Sales Prices  Costs and Affordability  Energy and Water Use  Fiscal Impacts  Physical Form  Height  Unit sizes  Parking configurations  Financial Reality  Rents / sales prices  Construction costs  Land costs Feasible?

Development Type Mix A Variety of Buildings, Streets and Amenities Create a “Place” Town Center Medium-Density Residential Single-Family Residential

Real-time Scenario Building and Evaluation Select Paint See Changes in Real Time

Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators  Land consumption & impact  Vacant and redevelopment lands  Measure development impact to sensitive lands (user defined sensitive areas)  Infill and Redevelopment  Percentage of growth on vacant lands or accommodated through infill  Housing  Unit type mix, FAR, density, tenure  Cost and affordability (rents / sales prices)  Match to estimated future housing demand  Employment  Industry mix, FAR and density  Employment wage  Jobs-Housing Balance

Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators  Square footage of new buildings by type  Land use mix (entropy score)  Value of new buildings  Sales and property tax revenues  Value of required subsidy  Household and Population  Population and density  Average household size  Average household income Based on new housing costs

Envision Tomorrow Scenario Indicators  Parking spaces, area and costs  Lot coverage and impervious surface  Private landscaping and open space  Estimated new street characteristics  New street length  Network and intersection density

Building-Level Sustainability Indicators  Building energy use  Carbon emissions from energy use  Landscaping water consumption  Internal building water consumption  Solid waste generated

Fiscal Impact Modeling  A Modified Version of the Federal “FIT” Fiscal Impact Model  Estimate and compare county and municipal revenues and costs from scenarios  Uses building values and infrastructure costs from Envision Tomorrow to capture explicit differences in revenues and costs from different land use types  Indicators:  Revenue Cost Ratio  New Revenues (Property, Income and Sales Taxes)  New Costs (Infrastructure, O&M and Services)

Revenues vs. Expenditures Net Annual Revenue

Proximity Measures (Walkable Access)  Calculate the proportion of development in a scenario that is within walking distance to any amenity, such as a school or park  Example:  50% of residents are within a 10 minute walk to a park

Affordability Housing + Transportation + Energy Costs  Assess trade-offs  Trade higher housing costs for lower transportation costs?

Shared Parking Opportunity  Increases in walking combined with mixing uses presents an opportunity for shared parking

Transportation Indicators  Household Vehicle Miles Traveled  Trips by Mode  Auto  Transit  Walk  Bike  Cost of Transportation (Auto and Transit)  Health Benefits of Increased Walking  Changes is Transportation Air Pollutants

Household Travel App  Predicts travel behavior based on land use variables  Household VMT  Auto trips  Walk trips  Transit trips  Bike trips

70 Output Fields Calculated for Each “Neighborhood” Boundary VariableGIS Field Name Household Variables Household Size TOT_AVG_HH_SIZE Household Income TOT_AVG_HH_INC Number of Employed Workers in the Household TOT_AVG_HH_WORKERS Accessibility Variables Activity Density within ¼, ½, and 1 miles ACTDENQTRMI ACTDENHALFMI ACTDEN1MI Job-Population Balance within ¼, ½, and 1 miles JOBPOPBALQTRMI JOBPOPBALHALFMI JOBPOPBAL1MI Land Use Entropy (Mix) within ¼, ½, and 1 miles ENTROPYQTRMI ENTROPYHALFMI ENTROPY1MI Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 10, 20 and 30 Minute Auto Trip PCTREGEMP10MINA PCTREGEMP20MINA PCTREGEMP30MINA Percent of Regional Employees/Jobs Accessible within a 30 Minute Transit Trip PCTREGEMP30MINT Intersection Density within ¼, ½, and 1 miles INTDENQTRMI INTDENHALFMI INTDEN1MI Percent of 4-way Intersections within ¼, ½, and 1 miles PCT4WAYINTQTRMI PCT4WAYINTHALFMI PCT4WAYINT1MI Transit Stop Density within ¼, ½, and 1 miles TRANSSTOPDENQTRMI TRANSSTOPDENHALFMI TRANSSTOPDEN1MI Rail Stops within a ½ mile RAILTRANSSTOPHALFMI

Activity Density (Jobs + Pop) / Developed Area

Employment Access Within 10 minute auto trip

Job Population Balance 1-ABS(EMP-0.2*POP)/(EMP+0.2*POP)

Intersection Density Within a quarter mile

Percent 4-Way Intersections Within a quarter mile

Transit Stop Density Within a quarter mile

Rail Stop Density Within a quarter mile

Land Use Mix Within a quarter mile

HH VMT

Vehicle Trips

Walk Trips

Bike Trips

Transit Trips

Web-based ET+ In Development  As easy as Google Maps  No costly licenses or fast computers required for users  Many uses:  Real-time zoning administration  Direct local feedback on forecasts or plans  Live workshops with technical audience  Scenario development on mobile devices