Can native plant species find refuge beyond their current ranges in the face of climate change? Pacific Northwest (PNW) prairies are an imperiled ecosystem that contain a large number of plant species, many of which have northern and/or southern range limits from southwestern Oregon/northern California to Washington/southern British Columbia. The few remaining high-quality prairies harbor a number of sensitive, rare, and endangered plant species that may be lost with climate change Tera Johnson, Skidmore College Laurel Pfeifer-Meister, University of Oregon Scott Bridgham Lab & Bart Johnson Lab

Why Should Society Care about Climate Change? “All ecosystems and human societies depend on a healthy environment that contains diverse plant and animal species.” Economic and Environmental Benefits of Biodiversity (Pimental et al. 1997) Globally, climate change may lead to rises in sea level, reduced freshwater availability, spread in diseases, and negative impacts on food security. Another key challenge (a challenge that I’m particularly exploring) in climate change is biodiversity and plant range distribution Extensive research has shown that both ecosystems and human societies depend on a healthy and diverse native environment For instance Piemental et al emphasize that ..

Essential Services Brought to You by Biodiversity Nitrogen Fixation Soil Formation Biological Pest Control Plant Pollination Agricultural Services Essential Medicines CO2 Sequestering Organic Waste Disposal Future Research Soil formation: Diverse soil biota facilitate soil formation and improve it for crop production. Nitrogen Fixation: Biological nitrogen fixation is a process in which atmospheric N, is converted by bacteria into substrates of nitrogen that plants can use. SOCIETY: Essential medicines: many synthetic drugs, including aspirin, were first discovered in wild plants and animals. CO2 Sequest. By forests (occupy 1/3 land area) Organic waste disposal: Each year, humans, livestock, and crops produce approximately 38 billlion metric tons of organic wastes worldwide.These wastes are recycled by a variety of decomposer organisms Future sustainability research Societal Services Images courtesy of GoogleImages

Concerns with Managing Biodiversity in the Pacific Northwest Many people expressed dissatisfaction with the tendency of policy to focus on single species. Many also desire a need to recognize the dynamic nature of ecosystems and to manage accordingly. “What are some potential impacts, and how will climate change scenarios play out in the short- and long-term?” In a study performed by White and Molina, land managers, fed agencies, environmentalist, etc, were interviewed about their concerns regarding biodiveristy management Some of the main concerns were: First point: oversimplifies biodiversity Another question that was amongst research participants was this: The Pacific Northwest Research Station biodiversity initiative: Scoping out the challenges in managing biodiversity The Pacific Northwest Research Station biodiversity initiative: Scoping out the challenges in managing biodiversity (White and Molina., 2006)

Here’s Where My Research Comes In! I am… Incorporating climate change both in the sort term and long term, focusing on multiple species, and incorporating the abiotic and biotic factors that overlooked by historical observation Focusing on multiple species Considering abiotic and biotic factors

Predictions for future climate in the Pacific Northwest Temperature Precipitation Thus, our temperature treatments are based off of this enchanced seasonal cycle lesse words Future climate in the Pacific Northwest (Mote and Salathe, 2010) Take home: Trends in temperature are generally upward. Winters are wetter and summers are drier.

Plant Distribution in the PNW: Research Hypothesis If projected changes in climate negatively impact fitness and/or plant growth for species within their current range, one may expect fitness and plant growth to be positive beyond this range. A lack of consistent results may suggest that species distribution is dependent upon other site-specific factors.  

Methods: Sites Decrease in Temperature Three prairie sites were chosen along a 520 km natural climate gradient Decrease in Temperature

Methods: Plots Each site contains 20 plots, each with different treatments: Heat (+2.5oC) Precipitation (+20%) Heat + Precipitation Control Beginning of each year, same number of seeds planted – equal opportunity of growth. Climate Soil nutrient availability Competition from neighbors

So. Oregon/ Willamette Valley Methods: The Plants I measured plant growth (weight) and fitness (seed count) of 6 native plant species within and beyond their geographic ranges in the PNW in response to climate change. So. Oregon/ Willamette Valley Southern Oregon All 3 Sites Achyrachaena mollis Thysanocarpus radians Navarretia pubescens Ranunculus austro-oreganus Achnatherum lemmonii Clarkia purpurea Results from this research may assist land managers to make generalized trends regarding their shifts in distribution and risk of extinction.

Results: Survivorship Before we can begin to measure plant size, each species must overcome the first hurdle - establishment. For plants who have their ranges in SOR, most ten to establish best outside their range (in COR). Hypethetic more, what happens when you move

Results: Plant Growth As establishment was a significant hurdle, there were cases where we had few individuals surviving in particular treatments. (1) Point out few places where this was the case. Plants tend to be larger south and smaller north; significant for all except ThyRad.

Results: Plant Growth Once a species is established, the main factor affecting growth is temperature. Now, let’s take a closer look at each individual species and see how temperature influences growth at each site. (SOR plants) For plants with native ranges in SOR, heat generally has positive effect (except for NavPub) (ACHLEM) Heating was negative (CLAPUR) Heating negative in SOR but positive elsewhere. Native Species in range: no plant growth with heat treatment or plant growth with heat, but negative direction.

Results: Reproductive Fitness Larger plants produced more seeds Seed count predictive of plant growth Results from size translated to # of seeds Site is important when predicting plant fitness

Conclusions More plants tend to establish best outside their geographic range north. Once established, heat positively influences plant size, regardless of current range. Plants tend to become increasing smaller towards the North. Ultimately, our research demonstrates that climate change may significant effects on native species occurring within natural ranges. Therefore, the ability to disperse may determine likelihood of survival.

Future Research Assisted Migration: Then, replant in Washington and Oregon Plants from California are better adapted to warmer climates and may be more fit North. May obtain telling results, however AM is controversial Take seeds from Northern/Central California

Acknowledgements - My mentor: Laurel Pfeifer-Meister - FASEB Funding by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research, U.S. Dept. of Energy, Award DE-FG02-09ER64719 - My mentor: Laurel Pfeifer-Meister - Lorien Reynolds - Tim Tomaszewski - Samantha Block - Liam Beckman - Chelsea Little - FASEB - Peter O’Day - Adam Unger - All of the SPUR interns

Thank You!