Case study III The continental scale: home ranges Species differ in home range Home ranges may be continuous or scattered. Scattered distributions might not allow for any gene flow. Such regional subpopulation quickly evolve into new species

Many species have seasonal migrations. Then summer and winter home ranges differ.

The UTM grid of Poland used for species distribution atlases Philaeus chrysops Regression analysis with environmental factors allows for the assessment of habitat preferences. No gene flow Relict species Introduced species Habitat specialists

S Alps C Balkans E France Languedoc W France Marche Venetian Romagna Tuscany Calabria P. liolepis P. lsiculus P. melidellensis MiocenePliocenePleistoceneH Case study III The continental scale: home ranges How did Podarcis muralis colonise Europe aft the glacial period? How will the species spread in the face of climate change? Podarcis muralis olocene Substitutions

Species distribution modelling (MaxEnt) under five different climatic scenarios

The map of 144 alleles from 10 loci spread across 20 sites from southern and western Europe Sites sorted according to allele richness Sites sorted according to distance from Athens The mean number of elleles per locus decreases with distance from Greece Colonisation gradient Founder effects Ordered genetic loss Relict populations Vicariant (scattered) genetic loss Popu- lations

Site Alleles A perfectly nested pattern of allele loss Site Alleles Unexpected absences Unexpected presences Rows and columns are sorted according to species richness Site Alleles A matrix sorted to maximise the number of occurrences along the diagonale reveals the degree of allele turnover in the population Site Alleles A random matrix A nested pattern of allele loss with unexpected absences and presences

ItalyW-BalkansE FranceS Luxemburg C Luxemburg N-GermanyN Luxemburg S- Belgiu m W France Distan ce from Athens NAlleles Allel es Locus Eastern limeage with ordered loss of alleles along the colonisation gradient Western limeage with ordered loss of alleles along the colonisation gradient The ordered (nested) loss of alleles along putative cpolonisation gradients Intermediate situation

Balkans and Italy Western France Eastern and western clades do not completely overlap in allele distribution. Apparently we have two postglacial colonisation trajectories: from Spain and from the Balkans. Seriation : sorting the matrix according to reciprocal averaging. Occurrences are maximised along the matrix diagonal. S Alps C Balkans E France W France Marche Venetian Romagna Tuscany PleistoceneH olocene 1.2 my Languedoc 0.4 my Calabria Eastern Clade Italian Clade Western Clade