1 Management Confidential Aviation Weather Friends and Partners John Foottit Manager Aviation Weather Services Las Vegas, 13 Oct 2004

2 Integration and Display Mentally integrating disparate bits of weather information into an accurate and coherent picture for a specific route and altitude of flight is difficult for many pilots. Hence the need for a very effective but expensive network of Flight Service weather briefers.

3 Integration and Display Improve NWP models so that pilots can independently make most flight planning decisions and you have a strong business case for evolutionary change. Hence Nav Canada’s investment in the Internet-based Automated Supplementary Enroute weather Prediction system (ASEP).

Clear Air Turbulence

Winds Aloft

MSL Pressure

Upper Air Temperature

Which should eventually evolve into something more dynamic...

MDT Rime Imagery courtesy of Microsoft Flight Simulator 2000 FL 250: 40 / ,000/-26

600 BKN Imagery courtesy of Microsoft Flight Simulator 2000 LGT Rime + 7/ +5 3 miles

11 Integration and Display The challenge is not only with the meteorological science, but with how to present information to the users so that it “speaks” to them. For example, assuming that the aviation regulations can be changed to accommodate the use of probabilistic forecasts, how do we offer an intuitive display of such information?

12 Evaluation There are so many different flight planning requirements … For example, in Canada, VFR is not always 1000 feet and 3 miles - it depends upon the type of aircraft, the airspace, the terrain, and whether it is day or night.

13 Evaluation If the users are to evaluate a forecast, we’re going to have to design flexible performance measurement systems that allow them to tailor the output to meet their requirements. For example, Nav Canada’s current system only produces canned reports in the form of columns of numbers.

Evaluation Site specific data is also offered, but users cannot “pick out the signal from the noise”. Indeed, only the statisticians recently noticed that Canadian TAF reliability has been “flat” for the past 7 years.

15 Evaluation Nav Canada is therefore working with the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) to create a relational performance measurement data base. Air carriers will then be able to obtain graphic trend information concerning such site specific variables as the reliability of forecasts for flight planning No Alternate IFR.

16 Evaluation Clear, flexible forecast performance data should positively influence flight planning decisions, such as fuel upload (which affects fuel burn, which relates to greenhouse gas emissions). This equation prompted Government environmental funding for 1/3 of the cost - we have partners we didn’t know about.

17 Questions? John Foottit Manager Aviation Weather Services

Calgary 10 Oct 98 - the Observations METAR CYYC Z 35007KT 2SM -SN OVC014 00/M02 A3010 SPECI CYYC Z 35007KT 1SM -SN VV006 SPECI CYYC Z 35009KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN015 OVC040 SPECI CYYC Z 35011KT 5SM -SN FEW009 OVC049 METAR CYYC Z 35006KT 10SM -SN FEW009 OVC049 M00/M02 A3010

Calgary10 Oct the Aerodrome “Backcast” TAF CYYC Z KT 2SM -SN OVC014 FM0508Z 35007KT 1SM -SN VV006 FM0517Z 35009KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN015 OVC040 FM0527Z 35011KT 5SM -SN FEW009 OVC049 Its precise It doesn’t use qualifiers such as TEMPO or PROB It only covers one hour